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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Werker's NFL Wild Card Weekend
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#1
Posted: 1/2/2012 10:16:23 AM
Overall Record: 86-61-4
Sides and Totals: 69-49-4
Props: 13-9-0
Parlays: 1-0-0
Teasers: 3-3-0

Week 17 was not kind to me record-wise (at 2-4), but I ended up with only a small loss because of that money teaser. Anyway, here we go...

Early Plays:

Steelers -7 -125 (I don't know why I had access to this line, but it was there last night): The Broncos have managed to sneak into the playoff despite losing their last 4. This is a team that won one game all year by more than one score. I wish this game was in Pitt, where'd I'd have been happy to lay 13, and honestly think that would be an easier cover than this, but this situation is still a good one. The Steelers have the edge in every single part of the game as far as I can tell except home field advantage, but that hasn't helped Tebow lately. The guy is just not a good QB and it took awhile to figure out that you can't take the pressure off in the 4th quarter, but it's figured out. He cannot play against an NFL blitz. I feel pretty comfortable putting my money on the Steelers defense. and as much as I respect the Denver defense, they're not going to hold the Steelers to under 20 points, and that should be enough to cover. I'll look at the team total as well. 

Lions +11: The Saints have been dominant at home this year, so I will say, take this one at your own risk (well, as always). I have a lot of faith in the Lions. I really think they have a shot at this one, and will be putting a little something on the money line. The Lions have forced 34 turnovers this year and the Saints have forced just 16. That  is a monstrous difference. (For the record, the Lions turned to ball over 19 times to the Saints 18.) Despite getting torched by the Packers in week 17, this is still a solid pass defense. Matt Flynn is a good QB and he knows that system VERY well. Plus the rest of the team was still first string. Don't take too much from that. Getting Delmas back this week will be a huge help too. I also think the Lions defense learned more from losing to the Saints last time out than the Saints defense learned about stopping the Lions. I am giving the Lions defense a big edge on the the Saints defense, which will probably be close to neutralized by the hfa. I think this game will be a shootout, but a one score shootout.  Also, Stafford wasn't yet healthy in the last time out, and they still only lost by 14. He's been lighting it up (so has Brees, I'll grant), which is why...

Lions/Saints o58.5: I keep trying to figure scenarios where both teams don't go over 30 points, but honestly they all seem unlikely. This game is the definition of a shootout. Both of these teams move fast on offense and throw the ball much more than run the ball (Both Stafford and Brees have been averaging more than 40 attempts/game; 1 and 2 in the league. They are also 1 and 2 in completions, 1 and 3 in yardage, 1 and 3 in TDs). How? HOW is this game not going over this total? Maybe some sharps are out there going contrarian, but I won't be one of them. I tested that theory yesterday by being wary of the Saints/Panthers total, and that didn't quite work out. K.I.S.S.

Early Leans:

Giants -3 (Both these teams suck for playoff teams, but the Giants are hotter and have home field. Ryan still sucks in general, but especially in the conditions of New Jersey in January. I expect him to be particularly awful. Also, Turner is done.)

Giants/Falcons u49 (I expect Ryan to suck, and Coughlin loves to run the ball with a lead)

Texans -3 (This game is the one I have the least strong opinion on right now....just my gut feeling is on Houston. Could easily change.)
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#2
Posted: 1/2/2012 10:25:02 AM
Good luck Werker.  
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#3
Posted: 1/2/2012 11:01:16 AM
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#4
Posted: 1/2/2012 11:07:15 AM
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#5
Posted: 1/2/2012 12:33:57 PM
no one is going to talk me into the falcons. they haven't beaten anyone worthy of mention all year. their on the road against a giants team that is getting healthy, on a roll, and has been there done that.

steelers @ 7 is a gift. imo

+11 is scary, but so are the saints at home.
not sure about the bengals and texans. might have to lay off that one. bol man.
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#6
Posted: 1/2/2012 12:52:57 PM

Some things that seem overlooked here:

Saints defense has given up 30+ points 3 times this year.  Detroit 5.

Saints scoring D last 8 weeks (including playing with huge leads):

16, 23, 24, 17, 17, 20, 16, 17. 

Detroit was down by as much as 17 and lost by 14 by game's end. 

I think the over will only happen if N.O. scores in the 40s themselves.  Detroit may get as high as the low 20s, but the Saints D is better than advertised.

 

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#7
Posted: 1/2/2012 2:28:24 PM
metalbill: I'm almost definitely taking the Giants at this point. The Falcons stink. I'm loving the Steelers at that number as well. Went a little bigger than normal on it. The Saints at home are kinda scary, but they've also had some seriously favorable matchups lately, so not QUITE as much as you'd think from the scores. I'm leaning more and more towards taking the Texans after watching the replay of the Ravens/Bengals game. They got manhandled by the Ravens run game. I could definitely see Foster doing the same thing.

Aalon:
The Saints defense is just not that good. They haven't face an offense that's rolling like the Lions are right now since the Texans in week 3. Holding TB, ATL, NYG without Bradshaw, DET with a hurt Stafford and Smith, TEN, MIN, ATL again and the current version of CAR is just not THAT impressive. I'm not saying they're a bad defense, just that they're average, and can be burned by a good QB, like any average defense these days. The fact that both teams move so fast on offense should lead to an acceleration of all the facets of both teams. 
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#8
Posted: 1/2/2012 4:04:54 PM

LIKEM ALL BUT G/MEN,,NEVER KNOW WHO WILL SHOW UP.

HOUSTON SHOULD DO JUST FIND,WILL HAV RUNIN GAME BACK AND DEFENCE SHOULD HOLD THIER OWN,,,

BOL

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#9
Posted: 1/2/2012 4:08:36 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by luckyly]

LIKEM ALL BUT G/MEN,,NEVER KNOW WHO WILL SHOW UP.

HOUSTON SHOULD DO JUST FIND,WILL HAV RUNIN GAME BACK AND DEFENCE SHOULD HOLD THIER OWN,,,

BOL

WILL HAV A TEASE 6PT..PITT-1 AND UNDE40-,,HOUSTON +3
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#10
Posted: 1/2/2012 4:26:34 PM
I will be riding the over in the Saints/lions game.

Taking the lions with the points is a risky decision..

love pitt and the under
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#11
Posted: 1/2/2012 4:28:17 PM
like them all.
GL.
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#12
Posted: 1/2/2012 4:59:50 PM

 

Werker,

Good work and great logic.  I agree with your reasoning and situational thinking.

 

 

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#13
Posted: 1/2/2012 6:00:24 PM
luckyly: good luck

earthWake: Yeah, I know it's risky, but so is every spread bet. I like this one a lot. Another thought is that Stafford was still recovering from his finger, Smith was playing very hurt and only had 6 carries, Delmas and Houston were both out in the secondary and Suh was suspended. They're all back. They had 107 penalty yards, which is unlikely to be repeated. And they still only lost by 14 last time out. I really just think this is too many points.

KktdocT: Thanks, gl to you too.

Straw: Also, thanks, and gl to you too.
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#14
Posted: 1/2/2012 6:05:01 PM
I'm locking in all my sides and totals plays right now as I like where they're at right now and aren't likely to get better in any significant way, but could get significantly worse if they move against me.

Already set:

Steelers -7 -125
Lions +11
Lions/Saints o58.5

Added plays:

Giants -3 -105
Falcons/Giants u48
Texans -2.5 -120

Will add write-ups later. And player props will definitely be happening as well. 

Also, I am considering this teaser as well, but don't love taking 4-teamers:

Giants +9 / Texans +9 / Lions +22.5 / Steelers +4
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#15
Posted: 1/2/2012 6:10:23 PM

I love the GMEN (it's the playoffs and they will show up for every game here on out) . The one place where they might get torched again if they do not have a great gameplan is New Orleans.

 Also I had made my # for PIT  at -13.

However when I consider how Big Ben's lack of mobility and how long it takes for a high ankle sprain take to heal coupled with the news that RB Mendenhall is done for the season; the # might not be so ridiculous.

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#16
Posted: 1/2/2012 6:12:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Werker:


Aalon: The Saints defense is just not that good. They haven't face an offense that's rolling like the Lions are right now since the Texans in week 3. Holding TB, ATL, NYG without Bradshaw, DET with a hurt Stafford and Smith, TEN, MIN, ATL again and the current version of CAR is just not THAT impressive. I'm not saying they're a bad defense, just that they're average, and can be burned by a good QB, like any average defense these days. The fact that both teams move so fast on offense should lead to an acceleration of all the facets of both teams. 

I don't follow that.  Atlanta was on a hot streak and had everyone beleiving their offense was back after what they did to Carolina and Tampa Bay.  Atlanta's offense was full of confidence going against a familiar foe with everything on the line. 

Current version of Carolina?  Carolina was on a big roll and ranked #4 in total offense before the Saints game.  Again, full of confidence going into the Saints game and scoring loads of points at teh time.  Not sure what you mean by "current version" since lately they had been highly impressive.

NYG without Bradshaw?  Are you really trying to make it seem as if Ahmad Bradshaw is that important of a back for them?  The way the Saints jumped all over the Giants, it really didn't matter who was their RB.  Their running game had been long taken out.

Saints lately have only given up yards in garbage time and has been stout against the run.  Early in the season they gave up big plays on busted coverages, but that has been corrected.

Just giving fair warning not to underestimate the Saints (or Patriots) defense and running game and don't be shocked if Detroit is held in the teens again.  Stafford didn't seem that affected in the last game with his throws either.

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#17
Posted: 1/2/2012 7:03:39 PM
Steelers are wounded but I will take my chances with them rather than a crap Denver team.
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#18
Posted: 1/2/2012 7:07:56 PM
xflrejects: Pitt -13 in Denver would have been ridiculous. I still wouldn't back Tebow at that number, but I would have stayed away. You've got to respect Denver's defense, and Pitt is not 19 points better than them, even with a healthy Mendy and 100% Ben. 

Aalon: The Falcons stink. Carolina, Jacksonville and Tampa were some of the worst defenses in the league at the times Atlanta faced them. Putting up points on those teams means nothing. 

Carolina seriously faded towards the end and their last respectable offensive game was actually against the Lions in week 11. 

NYG misses a huge piece of their offense without Bradshaw. On top of the fact that he's by far their best RB on the ground, he's by far their best RB in the air too. In that game Ware had 8 catches on 9 targets for just 45 yards, and that was about his average (being 6.3 yards/catch). Bradshaw averages 7.9 yards/catch. That might not sound like a lot, but it's a huge difference. 

I'm not underestimating anything. And if you want to lay it to me, I'd take the Lions team total o20 for pretty much any amount you'd be willing to take. 

The Saints are an average defense. 
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#19
Posted: 1/2/2012 7:11:24 PM
luv ur Pit and Det play, not bashing but Gmen and Hou can go either way, im on Cinny big, but Gmen im only leaning towards ATL, still need to digg more into it. GL


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#20
Posted: 1/2/2012 7:15:52 PM
Yeah, don't get me wrong I was not questioning your decision to take the Lions, just as I mentioned I thought it was risky.

I like the total in this game more than I like either side. I'm thinking about just playing a large 3 team, 7pt teaser +165. The lines are so sharp this week.

I don't want to tease two things from the same game so still unsure. 

Saints/Det over 51.5
Steelers - 1.5 OR Under 42

I would like your opinion on what you think is best (without lions +1)

Slightly leaning towards either throwing in Arkansas -1.5 or doing something rare and teasing two lines from same game 
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#21
Posted: 1/2/2012 7:19:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:

Yeah, don't get me wrong I was not questioning your decision to take the Lions, just as I mentioned I thought it was risky.

I like the total in this game more than I like either side. I'm thinking about just playing a large 3 team, 7pt teaser +165. The lines are so sharp this week.

I don't want to tease two things from the same game so still unsure. 

Saints/Det over 51.5
Steelers - 1.5 OR Under 42

I would like your opinion on what you think is best (without lions +1)

Slightly leaning towards either throwing in Arkansas -1.5 or doing something rare and teasing two lines from same game 


Pit -1.5 is good, Det +18 ( spread at 11 on my site ) seem good, Det played their worst ball n only lost by 14 18 gotta be good? i think soo, if u think cinny and hou game is under take it!! or Over in Det game looks good.
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#22
Posted: 1/2/2012 7:22:52 PM
I just saw your 4 possible 4 team teaser.

If you do one of these Denver/pitt under 50 is a MUST.

John Fox is one of the most conservative coaches I have ever seen and I expect him to call the slowest pace game imaginable. I think he knows realistically the only chance they have is play tight and hope to win it miraculously at the end. The Steelers D could end up taking a few picks to the house. I think this might be a great game to take defensive/special teams TD to kinda cover your behind if youre on the under

Damn I kind of 
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#23
Posted: 1/2/2012 7:28:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MRxKrazz:



Pit -1.5 is good, Det +18 ( spread at 11 on my site ) seem good, Det played their worst ball n only lost by 14 18 gotta be good? i think soo, if u think cinny and hou game is under take it!! or Over in Det game looks good.

I am not taking the Lions in the game with any points. I either take the Saints in big games in the dome, or make it a no play. While I think the Lions might cover, I expect it to be a 10-17 point game late with the cover going either way. The thing that scares me is, to me there is a high % chance that the Saints catch some breaks early and completely run the Lions out of the building.
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#24
Posted: 1/2/2012 7:32:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:

 

Damn I kind of 

Just meant to say that I kind of just talked myself into the under thinking about John Fox as a coach.

Sorry to blow up your thread. gl 
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#25
Posted: 1/2/2012 7:50:48 PM
mrxkrazz: Look at how the Bengals have beaten this year. CLE x2, BUF, JAX, INDY, SEA, TEN, STL and ARI....they are not that good. The Texans finally have Andre back. They will have Wade calling the plays. And Yates is apparently doing just fine. Especially after seeing Rice just tear them apart, I think Foster can have his way with them. I like that he rested up last week. Every single thing I've looked at to form an opinion on this game has me on the Texans.

The Falcons stink. They really do. Please do not look at what a team can do against the likes of TB, JAX, and CAR as a meaningful indicator for what they can do against an average defense. And the Texans defense is much better than average. Matt Ryan has always been MUCH better at home than away and New Jersey in January is not the place for a dome QB to shine. The Giants stink too, but not nearly as much. No matter who wins this one, I seriously doubt they survive the next one, but I really think it's going to be the Giants. 

EW: Hehe, don't worry about the thread. It's all fodder for discussion. First off, I do really like Ark -1.5...love steelers in there, like giants +4 plenty. The Pitt/Den under is definitely my lean, but for some reason don't feel great about it. Looks just fine though. Personally, I think it's absolutely impossible to take the Lions out of the game early. They've proven the ability to get takeaways and score quickly under pressure. 
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