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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Pats -6 biggest bet of the year
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#1
Posted: 12/13/2011 12:12:53 PM
Pats -6 will be my biggest bet of the year

How is denver going to keep up with the Pats? 
Lets see who the Pats haven't beaten by more than 6:

1. Lost to Giants:  Eli was 20/39 for 250 and 2tds
2. Lost to Seelers: Big ben was 36/50 for 329 and 2tds
3. Beat Cowboys by 4:  Romo was 27/41 for 317 and 1td
4  Lost to Bills: Fitzpatrick was 27/40 for 369 and 2tds
5. Beat Dolphins by 4:  Henne was 30/49 for 416 and 2tds

The Pats weakness is obviously their pass defense and you have to be able to exploit that to beat them. The  question is: Do you think Tebow can exploit that weakness?  My answer is HELL NO!  Look at the qb's listed and look at Tebow. They all threw the ball at least 40 times. 

Obviously there are other angles you can use and you can draw your own conclusions about this matchup, but this is enough for me.
Just thought I would share my thoughts.  GL Fellas

Oh and this thread is not meant to bash or praise Tebow. All comments regarding matchups/strategy/trends are welcome. If you would like to share your opinion of Tebow please go to one of the other 900 Tebow threads
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#2
Posted: 12/13/2011 12:15:16 PM
staying far away after last weeks Bears ML 
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#3
Posted: 12/13/2011 12:19:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ChOdaZ:

staying far away after last weeks Bears ML 


I hear ya.  Luckily I had bears +3.5.  GL this week
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#4
Posted: 12/13/2011 12:28:41 PM
Bol bruh!
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#5
Posted: 12/13/2011 12:43:41 PM
On paper, I agree with what you are saying, but a few factors going against the Patriots this week will keep me from betting them. Patriots are on the 2nd game of back to back road games, while Denver is on the 2nd game of back to back home games. Teams can tire out at the end of the game when it is the 2nd of back to back road games, and the high altitude in Denver will make it very difficult for the Patriots to win the 4th quarter, I predict the Pats will not win the 4th quarter, no matter what the outcome is. The Skins just ran 34 times for 170 yards against the Patriots run defense, and Denver is a run-first offense, who is effective late in games because they pound on teams for 4 quarters. Do what you want with your own money, its just my insight.
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#6
Posted: 12/13/2011 12:58:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by OmahaStylee:

On paper, I agree with what you are saying, but a few factors going against the Patriots this week will keep me from betting them. Patriots are on the 2nd game of back to back road games, while Denver is on the 2nd game of back to back home games. Teams can tire out at the end of the game when it is the 2nd of back to back road games, and the high altitude in Denver will make it very difficult for the Patriots to win the 4th quarter, I predict the Pats will not win the 4th quarter, no matter what the outcome is. The Skins just ran 34 times for 170 yards against the Patriots run defense, and Denver is a run-first offense, who is effective late in games because they pound on teams for 4 quarters. Do what you want with your own money, its just my insight.


Good points. Thanks for the input
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#7
Posted: 12/13/2011 1:15:19 PM
 think I'll wait a sec tho and see if this non stop tebow love will drive that number back down around 4 - even peeps that never vote (mitt romney) will be looking to make a play on the tebow's---Pats get the cash tho
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#8
Posted: 12/13/2011 1:18:57 PM
Line will go to 7 or more.
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#9
Posted: 12/13/2011 1:21:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Laroja:

Line will go to 7 or more.


I dont think it will go above 7
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#10
Posted: 12/13/2011 1:22:44 PM
pats beat the dolphins by 14 not 4
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#11
Posted: 12/13/2011 1:24:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by OmahaStylee:

On paper, I agree with what you are saying, but a few factors going against the Patriots this week will keep me from betting them. Patriots are on the 2nd game of back to back road games, while Denver is on the 2nd game of back to back home games. Teams can tire out at the end of the game when it is the 2nd of back to back road games, and the high altitude in Denver will make it very difficult for the Patriots to win the 4th quarter, I predict the Pats will not win the 4th quarter, no matter what the outcome is. The Skins just ran 34 times for 170 yards against the Patriots run defense, and Denver is a run-first offense, who is effective late in games because they pound on teams for 4 quarters. Do what you want with your own money, its just my insight.



Like i said in another thread this aint Wash this is NE

Well I just think that Belechek and the PATS will key on the run and make Tebow beat them passing and make him score 30+ to beat them.I also would imagine Belechek took note and will watch tape of the first 3 qtrs of the Bears game on how to stop Tebow as he had a 9 passer rating at that time.Denver should kiss the ground Cutler and Forte were hurt.Hanie is definitley one of the worst QBs in the league and Barber is definitley one of the stupisist palyers in the league
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#12
Posted: 12/13/2011 1:51:42 PM
NE 1st half
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#13
Posted: 12/13/2011 2:12:36 PM
Close game if Denver play calling is good. Denver's D will get after Brady. If the line goes to 7 Denver will be a good play. But they will need to keep Brady of the field by sustaining drives which should be fairly easy against pat's D that has two wr playing DB. Just horrible...
Posted using a mobile device.
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#14
Posted: 12/13/2011 2:28:23 PM
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#15
Posted: 12/13/2011 3:40:30 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by rounders69:

NE 1st half

if you like the pats this is the smartest bet to take.

Not much value in -6.5 or ML

Grossman just lit up the Pats like a christmas tree and Tebow does have the ability to throw the ball

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#16
Posted: 12/13/2011 3:49:03 PM
This line stinks to high heavens.
I hate it but in this case, take the Pats.
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#17
Posted: 12/13/2011 3:56:42 PM

this game scares the garbage outta me

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#18
Posted: 12/13/2011 4:16:38 PM
If your biggest bet of the year is fading Tim Tebow at home, how are you not shitting your pants come the 4th Q?
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#19
Posted: 12/13/2011 4:29:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:

If your biggest bet of the year is fading Tim Tebow at home, how are you not shitting your pants come the 4th Q?



I will fade Tebow with a 10+ pt lead and Brady at the Helm and not Hanie!!
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#20
Posted: 12/13/2011 4:40:21 PM
Question is, will Brady look bad or will Tebow finally look bad? Im pretty confident the Broncos win their division & if the Raiders lose to Detroit, good chance the Broncos lose as well, only thing is, they both play in the same time slot............the Patriots want to stay up with Houston, Ravens & Steelers..............then again, you're betting the spread so...................
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#21
Posted: 12/13/2011 4:42:22 PM
PTB, relax on the NFL conspiracy theory
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#22
Posted: 12/13/2011 4:44:25 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by MJ2345:




I will fade Tebow with a 10+ pt lead and Brady at the Helm and not Hanie!!

I will fade the Pats D who can't cover vs Rex Grossman at the helm and a mediocre Skins defense. They will be facing a real D this week!!

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#23
Posted: 12/13/2011 4:48:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:

I will fade the Pats D who can't cover vs Rex Grossman at the helm and a mediocre Skins defense. They will be facing a real D this week!!



Denvers D is overrated i showed.They cannot stop a good offense and a good QB.Force Tebow to beat them throwing the ball and NE wins
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#24
Posted: 12/13/2011 4:50:13 PM
I tell u what i am gonna also tease this down to a pk NE will not lose this game out right
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#25
Posted: 12/13/2011 4:52:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MJ2345:

I tell u what i am gonna also tease this down to a pk NE will not lose this game out right


You're right, the Pats will not lose this game.................
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