mTbaKer's NFL Picks- Week 13

Lovin the phins this week mang. At first glance just purely on matchups Phins were my biggest thought. When I originally looked it was before the spreads were out and fact that it's -3 says something with phins coming off a tv loss and oak coming off 3 wins in a row. That's the first reason I like it since I usually like playing teams off losses vs teams off wins. Other huge reasons come purely to schedule.  Mia has extra rest on this game playing a thurs game last week and having more time to game plan for oak.  On top of that the Raiders over the last 3 weeks will have now traveled to Minn, back home, and now all the way across the U.S. to play in Mia. All this traveling before heading to GB next week to play the undefeated Pack. Oak barely squeaked out that w last week even with Hanie throwing 3 pics.  Then, throw in the fact that this game will be a 1pm start which happens to be a 10am game to Oak. Pretty damn tough spot if you ask me with a team flying across country, at an early start, playing GB next week in GB, off 3 wins in a row, missing D Moore, Jacoby, and Run DMC, and now on top of that their stud MLB in Rolando Mcclain who was arrested this week all vs a team on extra rest.  If starting Oak LB https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/playerpage/1273352/rolando-mcclain is unable to play, then https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/playerpage/406605/darryl-blackstock is expected to start

Throw all that on top of the fact that the spread came out at Mia favored and hasn't budged even though VInsider currently shows 96% on oak ml and 81% on oak w the spread. Things have shaped up pretty well for oakland the last few weeks playing a way overrated SD squad in a must win after a division loss to Denver (I was on oak I think you were too), then squeaking a win out vs a terrible Vikings squad that lost AP in that game, then playing Chi - Jay Cutler at home and squeaking by. Sure, they've covered all 3 but the last two teams they've played were both missing their best players. 

All of that disregards that Mia actually matches up pretty damn well with Oak too. S Smith and Vontae can shutdown 2 out of 3 WRs of H-Bey, Chaz Schillens, and L Murphy, with Nolan Carrol (who has been playing well recently) on the other. DMC out vs us is a big deal also since Bush doesn't match up as well vs the phins strong group of LBs in C Wake, Dansby, Burnett, and Misi along with Soliai at NT. Only weakness would probably be the TEs for the Raiders who have played decent recently. 

Mia offense matches up solidly too. D Thomas and Bush should be able to get yardage on the ground vs weak LBs and Matt Moore should be able to get his considering Hanie and Ponder were both able to put up over 200 yards passing and 2 tds vs Oak. If Moore manages not to throw the 3 pics they both threw than the 5 and 6 pt loss by Minny and Chi should translate to a w for the phins.

Oh, also didn't notice this tidbit until now but just came across it:

DT https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/playerpage/235242/richard-seymour did not practice and is unlikely to face Miami.