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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Are Parlays for Suckers?
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#1
Posted: 11/6/2011 8:03:20 PM
I am not a newbie to sportsbetting.  10+ years but I have never really done very well until the last 3 years when I really started studying and using my own (systems) but This year I am 65% on games and this weekend I called 76.7% of my games right and did 15 + parlays and I lost every single one of them.  Over 2500$  This is so effin frustrating to have a great week pick wise and lose that much money.  I like parlays because you can hit big when you have some "locks" as anchor games.  I hate it.  I am ready to throw my laptop out the window.
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#2
Posted: 11/6/2011 8:06:47 PM
Not to mention I had LSU ML in 6 parlays yesterday. I had one big hit this year which has kept me in the game this year but typically week after week I am picking games well and losing money.  SHould I play around with some teasers?  I really feel like I have a beat on college football this year and NFL I have a nice system.  Somebody is making money,  how you doin it?
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#3
Posted: 11/6/2011 8:09:28 PM
Ticket #: 106163151] PARLAY (7 TEAMS) RR (1P-7T)
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [408] NEW ORLEANS -460
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [410] HOUSTON -535
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [415] SAN FRANCISCO -3-140 (B+1)
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [417] SEATTLE +11-110
11/06/2011 @ 01:05 PM NFL [424] ARIZONA -2½-120 (B+½)
11/06/2011 @ 12:05 PM NFL [425] NY GIANTS +10-130 (B+1)
11/06/2011 @ 05:25 PM NFL [429] BALTIMORE +3+105
330.00 10046.57
11/06/2011 - ONLINE at 02:46 PM
[Ticket #: 106241393] STRAIGHT BET
11/06/2011 @ 05:25 PM NFL [429] BALTIMORE +3½-110
1100.00 1000.00
Maybe, I guess will find out after the game.
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#4
Posted: 11/6/2011 8:09:48 PM


Of course parlays and teasers are nonsense.

You cannot argue with mathematics

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#5
Posted: 11/6/2011 8:13:15 PM

Well, depends how much do you bet on parlays, and the qty of teams.  I usually do 2, 3 teamers.     Once I hit an 8 teamer, and various 9,10..,even 15 teamers but  with big ML faves in College Football and soccer.     But my parlays are like 20%    compared to a regular straight bet.   Straight bet, 1 unit,    parlays .2 unit.

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#6
Posted: 11/6/2011 8:14:05 PM

 hill

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#7
Posted: 11/6/2011 8:15:57 PM
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#8
Posted: 11/6/2011 8:16:43 PM
[#106164925] PARLAY (4 TEAMS) RR (1P-4T) (Risking: 220.00- To Win: 2,586.36)
11/06/2011 - 09:10 AM NFL [408] NEW ORLEANS -8½-110
Score: TAMPA BAY(16) - NEW ORLEANS(27)
WIN
11/06/2011 - 09:10 AM NFL [410] HOUSTON -9½-120 (B+½)
Score: CLEVELAND(12) - HOUSTON(30)
WIN
11/06/2011 - 09:10 AM NFL [415] SAN FRANCISCO -4-110
Score: SAN FRANCISCO(19) - WASHINGTON(11)
WIN
11/06/2011 - 09:10 AM NFL [417] SEATTLE +11-110
Score: SEATTLE(13) - DALLAS(23)
WIN
Thanks Smurpe, hit this 4 teamer earier.  Been a good day.
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#9
Posted: 11/6/2011 8:22:21 PM

Hill why the extra bet on baltimore?  I would hedge the bet with pittsburgh.. maybe like 3500$  then your guaranteed to cash big

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#10
Posted: 11/6/2011 8:25:38 PM
Parlays are for suckers...I play them now and again for fun and for very small amounts...but the money I see many on this site putting on 3 and 4 teamers is beyond ridiculous. You will not last long making these types of bets. They kill your bankroll.  Just my 2 cents...
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#11
Posted: 11/6/2011 8:27:08 PM
a lot of crazy things been happening man..  you gotta limit yourself on parlays & teasers & play same units or less then what you do w/ straight bets..

i know how frustrating it can be..  Iowa losing to MN last week put me -21 units & if they win I'm lookin' at +12...  I got a little reckless w/ how many units i was putting down on them, because like you say it's HUGE when you hit them..  & your head says nooo way they lose as 15+ faves..

happens all the time tho..  iowa losing to MN, t. tech beating OKla, northwestern beating NEB....


just limit yourself, maybe 2 teasers/parlays a day in NFL & ncaa & go with your straight bets..  flat bet or keep them around the same amount...

I did that this weekend I went 1-2..

lost 9 teamer w/ Nebraska losing,

hit SF, Houston/dallas parlay today & 

my 2u teaser to win 5.1 was   hit SF+5, Houston-2, dal-2.5, nyj+12.5, no pk, &  ne-1 ..  dang Pats.


GL man on what you decide!!!  
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#12
Posted: 11/6/2011 8:31:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hilljacks:

Ticket #: 106163151] PARLAY (7 TEAMS) RR (1P-7T)
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [408] NEW ORLEANS -460
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [410] HOUSTON -535
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [415] SAN FRANCISCO -3-140 (B+1)
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [417] SEATTLE +11-110
11/06/2011 @ 01:05 PM NFL [424] ARIZONA -2½-120 (B+½)
11/06/2011 @ 12:05 PM NFL [425] NY GIANTS +10-130 (B+1)
11/06/2011 @ 05:25 PM NFL [429] BALTIMORE +3+105
330.00 10046.57
11/06/2011 - ONLINE at 02:46 PM
[Ticket #: 106241393] STRAIGHT BET
11/06/2011 @ 05:25 PM NFL [429] BALTIMORE +3½-110
1100.00 1000.00
Maybe, I guess will find out after the game.
Nice, i need the Ravens to hit my 6 teamer to win $2,138....GL to us..
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#13
Posted: 11/6/2011 8:43:21 PM

The concise answer is YES

 

The other problem that nobody talks about is that from a pure payout and odds perspective, unless all of your games are being played at the same time, it literally makes NO SENSE to play a parlay.

EXAMPLE:

You play a 3 team parlay -- riski $100 to win $600.

Your 3 selections are:

1. San Francisco -4 (1 PM)
2. Giants +9 (4:15 PM)
3. Baltimore +3 (8:30 PM)

It literally makes zero sense to play these games in a parlay.

It makes more sense to play the same games risking your orginal $100 (plus 10% juice).

1. Risk $110 on San Fran....WIN
2. You now have $210 to play with...but are still only risking the same $110 you started with.

3. Risk the same $210 to win $190 on the Giants.
4. They win....you now have $400.

5. Risk that $400 all on Baltimore
6. ....They WIN

7. You end up with $800

 

A. Play all 3 teams in a parlay to win $600
B. Risk the same amount, play each game separately WIN $800

Parlays are sucker bets in more ways than one

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#14
Posted: 11/6/2011 8:58:36 PM
Parlays are not sucker bets. The sucker are the ones who don't know which plays to combine to win the parlays.




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#15
Posted: 11/6/2011 9:20:54 PM
Very Nice day for you Hilljacks....I'm pulling for ya buddy 
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#16
Posted: 11/6/2011 9:29:29 PM
Try doing an "if bet" parlay....at least you get paid for some of your wins. Example....you do a 3 team parlay,4 team,5 team....whatever....you have to list them in a certain order and if your first few teams win and then your 4th team loses,at least you get paid a partial amount.In a regular parlay,you lose the whole bet if 1 team loses. I'm pretty sure neb and ariz st screwed up alot of ML parlays.
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#17
Posted: 11/6/2011 9:30:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigNiner:

The concise answer is YES

 

The other problem that nobody talks about is that from a pure payout and odds perspective, unless all of your games are being played at the same time, it literally makes NO SENSE to play a parlay.

EXAMPLE:

You play a 3 team parlay -- riski $100 to win $600.

Your 3 selections are:

1. San Francisco -4 (1 PM)
2. Giants +9 (4:15 PM)
3. Baltimore +3 (8:30 PM)

It literally makes zero sense to play these games in a parlay.

It makes more sense to play the same games risking your orginal $100 (plus 10% juice).

1. Risk $110 on San Fran....WIN
2. You now have $210 to play with...but are still only risking the same $110 you started with.

3. Risk the same $210 to win $190 on the Giants.
4. They win....you now have $400.

5. Risk that $400 all on Baltimore
6. ....They WIN

7. You end up with $800

 

A. Play all 3 teams in a parlay to win $600
B. Risk the same amount, play each game separately WIN $800

Parlays are sucker bets in more ways than one


If your book is not giving you true odds for the parlay, call them and they will adjust.  They know that most people don't do the math thus won't question it.
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#18
Posted: 11/6/2011 11:53:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hilljacks:

Ticket #: 106163151] PARLAY (7 TEAMS) RR (1P-7T)
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [408] NEW ORLEANS -460
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [410] HOUSTON -535
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [415] SAN FRANCISCO -3-140 (B+1)
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [417] SEATTLE +11-110
11/06/2011 @ 01:05 PM NFL [424] ARIZONA -2½-120 (B+½)
11/06/2011 @ 12:05 PM NFL [425] NY GIANTS +10-130 (B+1)
11/06/2011 @ 05:25 PM NFL [429] BALTIMORE +3+105
330.00 10046.57
11/06/2011 - ONLINE at 02:46 PM
[Ticket #: 106241393] STRAIGHT BET
11/06/2011 @ 05:25 PM NFL [429] BALTIMORE +3½-110
1100.00 1000.00
Maybe, I guess will find out after the game.

NICE HIT! 
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#19
Posted: 11/6/2011 11:59:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hilljacks:

Ticket #: 106163151] PARLAY (7 TEAMS) RR (1P-7T)
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [408] NEW ORLEANS -460
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [410] HOUSTON -535
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [415] SAN FRANCISCO -3-140 (B+1)
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [417] SEATTLE +11-110
11/06/2011 @ 01:05 PM NFL [424] ARIZONA -2½-120 (B+½)
11/06/2011 @ 12:05 PM NFL [425] NY GIANTS +10-130 (B+1)
11/06/2011 @ 05:25 PM NFL [429] BALTIMORE +3+105
330.00 10046.57
11/06/2011 - ONLINE at 02:46 PM
[Ticket #: 106241393] STRAIGHT BET
11/06/2011 @ 05:25 PM NFL [429] BALTIMORE +3½-110
1100.00 1000.00

Maybe, I guess will find out after the game.

Congratulations Man!!! Use your money wisely and dont gamble it all lol jk do what you want!

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#20
Posted: 11/7/2011 12:00:28 AM
Congrats...even though I lost, I am glad you won!! Enjoy that moolah!!!
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#21
Posted: 11/7/2011 12:07:47 AM
Anyone who bets parlays involving games ATS is basically paying more juice for no good reason. As the previous poster showed, mathematically it makes absolutely no sense. Same risk - less payout. That's because parlays involving games ATS pay fixed odds.

However, parlays involving money-line games pay true odds. Meaning they pay the exact same as if you'd bet each game separately. Betting wise, these are the ONLY types of parlays players should ever play.
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#22
Posted: 11/7/2011 12:14:50 AM

bigniner  thanks for the advice, definitely a .  I am surprised in all the years I have bet I have never thought about it that way.  makes total sense.  The question I have is if you have a lock game such as detroit vs denver last week.  that line was completely bogus and I put it in 8 parlays and won two.  is that not how you would play that?  would you lay big cash on it and then use it on your "kinda sure" games?  Im just suckered in by the big payoff.  and I like the fact that I can hedge the bets if I hit my first 4 of a 5 teamer. like I do now.  I now can hedge against the 3355$  5 teamer with gb over and baltimore over.  I have philly as the 5th leg.  I can now hedge.  I appreciate your advice

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#23
Posted: 11/7/2011 12:25:49 AM
Love the Parlays, but when you're not hitting them, it's rough. The payouts are nice... Seems for 3 weeks now I cannot hit any 3 or 4 team parlays. Always 3 out of 4, 2 out of 3. Awesome win for the poster, the 6 teamer, nice! My book doesn't have those high ML's available for parlays. The highest odds they offer are around +250 / -300. I would love to be able to do those ML Parlays with strong favorites, and mix in a couple ATS's. Awesome hit!!!
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#24
Posted: 11/7/2011 12:34:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hilljacks:

Ticket #: 106163151] PARLAY (7 TEAMS) RR (1P-7T)
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [408] NEW ORLEANS -460
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [410] HOUSTON -535
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [415] SAN FRANCISCO -3-140 (B+1)
11/06/2011 @ 09:10 AM NFL [417] SEATTLE +11-110
11/06/2011 @ 01:05 PM NFL [424] ARIZONA -2½-120 (B+½)
11/06/2011 @ 12:05 PM NFL [425] NY GIANTS +10-130 (B+1)
11/06/2011 @ 05:25 PM NFL [429] BALTIMORE +3+105
330.00 10046.57
11/06/2011 - ONLINE at 02:46 PM
[Ticket #: 106241393] STRAIGHT BET
11/06/2011 @ 05:25 PM NFL [429] BALTIMORE +3½-110
1100.00 1000.00

Maybe, I guess will find out after the game.

 

Nice clean up. Ravens play up to their competition and always bring it when facing Pittsburgh. 3.5 in that matchup is key.

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#25
Posted: 11/7/2011 12:56:23 AM
Parlays involving games ATS = paying more juice.

Hedging parlays at the final game = paying more juice on top of the already inflated juice.


It might not be quite as exciting, but money-line parlays (true odds) involving just 2 or 3 teams and never hedging is the best way to bet parlays.
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