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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: **** NFL Sunday Analysys ****
BigLionsFan send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 9/29/2011 11:21:13 AM
I'm on the Lions and Skins myself.

I understand that the Rams will come out firing to prevent going 0-4 on the year, but the Skins aren't going to roll over because they lost last week.  These guys are professionals and realize that they are in a very tough division and need to win every game possible.

You mention that the Skins run game is non-existant.  I think you are putting too much stock into just one game (last weeks) as the Skins currently have the 12th best rushing attack through 3 weeks.  At the same time, you mention that the Skins will be facing a similar run defense this week against the Rams.  The Rams are currently ranked dead last against the run through 3 weeks.

I just see this as a game where people are betting the Rams thinking they can't go 0-4 and are neglecting to see that they just aren't very good right now.  This Skins need every game they can get in a tough division and they know it.  They bounce back in this game.
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#27
Posted: 9/29/2011 11:23:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigLionsFan:

I'm on the Lions and Skins myself.

I understand that the Rams will come out firing to prevent going 0-4 on the year, but the Skins aren't going to roll over because they lost last week.  These guys are professionals and realize that they are in a very tough division and need to win every game possible.

You mention that the Skins run game is non-existant.  I think you are putting too much stock into just one game (last weeks) as the Skins currently have the 12th best rushing attack through 3 weeks.  At the same time, you mention that the Skins will be facing a similar run defense this week against the Rams.  The Rams are currently ranked dead last against the run through 3 weeks.

I just see this as a game where people are betting the Rams thinking they can't go 0-4 and are neglecting to see that they just aren't very good right now.  This Skins need every game they can get in a tough division and they know it.  They bounce back in this game.


Just to add to that thought, Dallas currently has the 2nd best rush defense in the league, quite different than the Rams 32nd ranked rush D.
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#28
Posted: 9/29/2011 12:14:11 PM
Buffalo -3  Titans -1

Couldnt disagree with people pickin cincy more. Dont get caught in the idea that this is a trap game, remember that everygame is uniques. If you have watched any of the Buffalo games, you know that their offense is one of the most efficient in the league with a strong rushing game (fred jackson leads league in rushing yards) and Fitzpatricks quick decision making and audibles at the line will make even a good secondary look bad. Not to mention they lead the league in points per game. and if you think the raiders is an unimpressive win, Ask the Jets about it, Number one defense in the league got demoralized by them last week.

More importantly, Cincinatti is easily one of the worst teams in the league. Last week they were 1-10 on 3rd down, and 0-2 in the redzone last week!! THis was also against an extremely overvalued San Francisco team, who despite getting 3 turnovers in their favor, could only beat cincinatti by 5 points. Cincinatti will have to rely on running the ball, Which has been a difficult task for teams playing the bills with their much improved d-line and linebacking core. Also a secondary who just picked off TOM BRADY 4 Times will Shame a quarterback like Andy Dalton and the bills will finally exploit How terrible cincinatti is, which San francisco, Cleveland, and Denver (to noones surprise) were unable to do.

So do yourself a favor, and DO NOT Lose your money on the Bengals. 

Also, the titans are playing to their full potential, after a tough week one loss. They are also for real still and certainly undervalued this week. Defense is one of best in the league, and they are efficient on offense. Cleveland had to squeak out unimpressive wins agianst Miami and Cincinatti, to be 2-1. they are extremely overrated.

Titans -1
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#29
Posted: 9/29/2011 2:53:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigLionsFan:



Just to add to that thought, Dallas currently has the 2nd best rush defense in the league, quite different than the Rams 32nd ranked rush D.


Yes so far but the Rams games this year havn't really been competitive. They've been blown out all 3 games and the opposing teams were running the ball more than usual and the Rams defense was mostly not trying because were already down such big leads. Last year they were 8th in rushing defense and have a very good linebacking and Dline. I think your stats here are a bit misleading but I see your point.
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#30
Posted: 9/29/2011 2:55:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by EyesOnDaPrice:

that's a very nice card u have....but why would u fade detroit? i mean they could be in a spot for a letdown but been a covering machine and over...so y break the spell is either u ride them till it break or just stay away....i totally agree with you on the st louis play...but my theory on betting is stay away from sucky team unless they underdog and getting double points for the spread....i would like to see u play az that seem like a solid play than the ram....giants coming of a big win against their division rival and going on a road 2 weeks in a road is hard to win 2 game in a road in the nfl....and plus az is a good team at home and as good giants defense is they don't have a db that can cover fitzgerald and plus they coming of a lost to the lowly seatle is a good spot to back them up since public is all over giants and spread is going down...and i might consider u taking a look at the cincy pick might be a good one 2 :)


Not really fading Detroit due to a letdown. Their defense is horrible and if it wasn't for the Vikings self-destructing again in the 2nd half last game, the Lions would have got blown out. Lions don't have much of a run game but thrive on their excellent WR's and passing game but against top-notch defensive fronts usually they fold. Cowboys #1 in sacks this year. BOL either way.
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#31
Posted: 9/29/2011 5:46:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by aahuerta:


Couldnt disagree with people pickin cincy more. Dont get caught in the idea that this is a trap game, remember that everygame is uniques. If you have watched any of the Buffalo games, you know that their offense is one of the most efficient in the league with a strong rushing game (fred jackson leads league in rushing yards) and Fitzpatricks quick decision making and audibles at the line will make even a good secondary look bad. Not to mention they lead the league in points per game. and if you think the raiders is an unimpressive win, Ask the Jets about it, Number one defense in the league got demoralized by them last week.

More importantly, Cincinatti is easily one of the worst teams in the league. Last week they were 1-10 on 3rd down, and 0-2 in the redzone last week!! THis was also against an extremely overvalued San Francisco team, who despite getting 3 turnovers in their favor, could only beat cincinatti by 5 points. Cincinatti will have to rely on running the ball, Which has been a difficult task for teams playing the bills with their much improved d-line and linebacking core. Also a secondary who just picked off TOM BRADY 4 Times will Shame a quarterback like Andy Dalton and the bills will finally exploit How terrible cincinatti is, which San francisco, Cleveland, and Denver (to noones surprise) were unable to do.

So do yourself a favor, and DO NOT Lose your money on the Bengals. 

Also, the titans are playing to their full potential, after a tough week one loss. They are also for real still and certainly undervalued this week. Defense is one of best in the league, and they are efficient on offense. Cleveland had to squeak out unimpressive wins agianst Miami and Cincinatti, to be 2-1. they are extremely overrated.



Have to disagree with you here. The Bengals have the best defensive line and overall defense the Bills have faced up to now. Add that with a huge letdown spot for the Bills, I see them having trouble moving the chains this week. I'm not playing this game but if I were i'd be on the Bengals.


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#32
Posted: 9/29/2011 6:36:35 PM
Always follow you man, BOL this week, it's going to be another good one!

Best
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#33
Posted: 9/29/2011 6:46:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by efro:



um, the steelers at no point in the game were covering the 10.5 pt spread and this wasn't too tough...glad you didn't wager too much tho


I had Pitt -4/Under 46 for a big teaser & Colts Under 14.5 as well. That drive crushed me. Paid bookie off ready to get him back...
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#34
Posted: 9/29/2011 6:54:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
Felix Jones expected to have a solid running day against the Lions below-average run defense



Below average run defense Have you seen the Lions defensive line? Not to mention Fairley is probably going to be playing. Good writeup besides that tho GL
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#35
Posted: 9/29/2011 7:04:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KKemmis:



Below average run defense Have you seen the Lions defensive line? Not to mention Fairley is probably going to be playing. Good writeup besides that tho GL


Umm the Lions still have one of the worst run defenses in the league. Yes they have a monstrous defensive line that can get to the QB but they can't stop the run. Also I don't think Fairley is suiting up as you said.

"Rookie defensive tackle Nick Fairley's chances of making his debut against the Cowboys took a hit Wednesday when he missed practice."

-----------------------------------------------------------

Adding:
Cardinals +1

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#36
Posted: 9/29/2011 7:10:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Trav2282:

Always follow you man, BOL this week, it's going to be another good one!

Best


Glad to see you back
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#37
Posted: 9/29/2011 10:25:16 PM

Looks good except for one for me. Chicago's defense isn't as bad as what their numbers say. They played great against Atlanta(who is a very good offensive team) and then played GB and NO. Those offenses will make most defenses look bad, especially during the warm weather games. I look for Chicago to beat Carolina by 13. Good luck though.

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#38
Posted: 9/29/2011 11:25:12 PM
Washinton on the short week and a little banged up after Dallas and back to back weeks on the road,Rams only getting healthier,just can't see Skins winning this one ! the easy play this week is Atlanta vs a poor Seahawks team just knowing TB is up against Indy.
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#39
Posted: 9/30/2011 12:54:39 AM
The more I look at the Lions/Dallas game, the more I'm sure I am going to take Lions -1.

Firstly, I am surprised with all the coverage the Lions have been getting that the spread is not higher than -1, even with them being on the road. I think this has to do with the media portraying the cowboys as "the comeback kid" type. Everywhere you look you see an article about Tony Romo's toughness, and COMPLETE overhype of this Dallas team. This is surprising because he has always found a way to blow it in big games. All this talk diverts peoples attention from the many, real problems with this dallas team. 

Most notably, on the monday night game the cowboys had to kick 6 field goals to win!!!! Their inability to score touchdowns is a serious problem, and against high scoring teams like the Lions, they will fall quite short with this type of showing. The injuries they have at wide receiver are also an issue, Detroit has a very good secondary, and this will force dallas to run the ball an area where they have not excelled, only gaining 78 ypg.

This will all be much more difficult with an injured Tony Romo, and a weak offensive line. Detroit will get to the quarterback with Suh, Fairley, and Van Den Bosch on their d-line. And they will be able to exploit a vulnerable secondary with their talent at Wide Receiver and a healthy Matt Stafford. 

Another point I'd like to make is that I was not impressed at all with Dallas' last two wins, which I thought were games they should have won outright to begin with. They had to comeback against a terrible san francisco team, and they somehow squeaked by Washington without scoring a single touchdown, which is quite emberassing for the Redskins i'm sure. 

Detroit has a lot of good things going for them, and I don't see them losing this one.

3 Picks for the week
Lions-1
Bills -3
Titans-2

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#40
Posted: 9/30/2011 1:02:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Have to disagree with you here. The Bengals have the best defensive line and overall defense the Bills have faced up to now. Add that with a huge letdown spot for the Bills, I see them having trouble moving the chains this week. I'm not playing this game but if I were i'd be on the Bengals.



I see your point here, but say another high powered offense, like the patriots, were playing the bengals, would you still say that the bengals defensive play would be the reason they would cover? Not to say the two are the same, but the bills can attack you in many ways as we have seen this season.

Defense doesnt mean much when your offense cant put up points. The bengals will struggle to get anything going against an improved bills D, and their defense will be on the field too much. I see a few interceptions going the bills way and i Do not see the bengals putting up more than 10 points. 

Bills win 21-10


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#41
Posted: 9/30/2011 10:22:16 AM
BOL Capper! you got this!
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#42
Posted: 9/30/2011 10:25:31 AM
Washington has a better defense than the Lions?  Really?  Um, while you may say "look at who the Lions have played yadda yadda" the Lions have given up fewer yards and fewer points than the vaunted Washington defense.  You play the teams that are on your schedule - and the Lions D has done that VERY well.

Giving up 46 points in 3 games is pretty impressive.

Dallas will most likely be without Austin - Dez isn't 100 percent - the Dallas Oline is in shambles - and of course Tony isn't 100 percent.  If Suh gets through (he will) it could very well be Kitna time.

Sorry, you're off the mark.

Lions win this one and show the haters they are for real.


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#43
Posted: 9/30/2011 10:26:50 AM
You're basing your D ratings on SACKS?  Really?  Not yards allowed or points allowed - which is the point of a defense - but SACKS?

QB's the Cowboys have played
Grossman / Alex Smith / Mark Sanchez (working with a revamped Oline)

Epic fail.


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#44
Posted: 9/30/2011 10:29:46 AM
How about forcing turnovers?  Detroit 8 forced turnovers.  Dallas 5.  Kind of makes up for Dallas having five more sacks.  I'll take the team that gives up fewer points - and forces more turnovers over the team that sacks the opposing QB more.  

Good luck with your bet.


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#45
Posted: 9/30/2011 1:32:47 PM
Once again tons of love for the lions on here. Last week I had the Vikings to cover against the lions and once the game started there wasn't one word from all the lions backers in here it was silence. If the lions win this one I'll be the first to congratulate you all but at this point I just can't wait for the game to start now
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#46
Posted: 9/30/2011 5:03:44 PM
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#47
Posted: 9/30/2011 5:37:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Yes so far but the Rams games this year havn't really been competitive. They've been blown out all 3 games and the opposing teams were running the ball more than usual and the Rams defense was mostly not trying because were already down such big leads. Last year they were 8th in rushing defense and have a very good linebacking and Dline. I think your stats here are a bit misleading but I see your point.


Up until now, in spite of disagreeing with you, I thought you made good arguments, but that's ridiculous.
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#48
Posted: 9/30/2011 6:49:12 PM


Could not agree more
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#49
Posted: 9/30/2011 6:50:39 PM
Sorry quotes did not copy. I should say that I could not agree more with the Patriot analysis.
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#50
Posted: 9/30/2011 7:57:57 PM
Wizrduv where was the rams motivation in the 2nd half of the giants and ravens game? The game was already over they were down heavy going into the 2nd half of both of their last games . You think they would give 100% effort knowing there down so much and their offense isn't converting any downs? I don't think so I think things will change this week with the return of a running game and a possible early lead
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