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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Bodio's NFL 2011 -- Week 1
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#1
Posted: 9/10/2011 5:11:21 AM
2011-2012 NFL Record:
0 - 1 @ 0% for -1.1 Units




Week 1

#1: Pittsburgh Steelers +1


Well, I picked the Steelers to win the SuperBowl this year and this game will provide me with an opportunity to back them for the first time this season. I'll be honest, if this game @ Baltimore was not the first game of the season, I probably would have passed on it. But since it is, I feel this is worth a wager. I truly don't think that home-field advantage is as significant in the first game. Both teams are healthy, both are ready to start their seasons with a win, and both will be looking to kick the crap out of one another. Since you can pretty much throw all the motivational and emotional angles out for this one, it's safe to say that the best team should win this one. Well, I feel that Pittsburgh is the better team. Steelers are a better defensive team than Baltimore, and have all their starters returning on that side of the ball. Ravens have some changes, the most significant being in their secondary, where they have a number of new starters. At the same time I feel that Pittsburgh's offense is better as well. With Mendenhall getting over 400 touches last season during the SuperBowl run, I expect this PIT offense to utilize the pass much more in 2011. Roethlisberger is in his prime and he has a number of solid receivers at his disposal: Wallace, Ward, Brown, Sanders, and even Heath Miller, who will spend more time blocking than running routes though. Again, all these offensive weapons are back from last season and the cohesiveness of the group can't be over-stated here. Baltimore on the other hand, has parted ways with Mason and Heap, and brought in Lee Evans and Ed Dickson will take over at TE after having 13 catches in his rookie season. There's a reason why Buffalo gave away Evans for scraps! In any case, I don't see this Ravens passing offense being 'sharp' to start the season as they'll need some time to 'gel'. Finally, I want to point out that Steelers are 7-0 against Baltimore in Roethlisberger's last 7 starts against them. The guy just knows how to win against this team. I see a hard fought battle here, but Pittsburgh's aerial attack will be too much for the Ravens in the end.

#2: Tennessee Titans +1

Again, I'm backing a better team regardless of home-field. Titans have a veteran QB in Matt Hasselback, who should be able to exploit one of the worst defenses in the league from 2010. He has Chris Johnson, Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and Jared Cook at his disposal. Titans also have a pretty solid O-line, which might have an even easier day if Aaron Kampman is out. He's listed as questionable but is coming off a major knee surgery so should be limited regardless. For the Jags, Garrard is gone and in his place is Luke McCown who has 260 passing attempts in his 8 years in the league. I expect Cortland Finnegan to lock-down MIke Thomas, enabling the safeties to concentrate on Mercedes Lewis. Besides these two there really isn't much left in the receiving department. MoJo, of course, but he's coming off an off-season surgery and was limited in pre-season. It will be interesting to see how he performs in his first game of the season, as he didn't look very impressive in his lone preseason appearance. (Keep in mind it was only a few carries). Titans have more play-makers, better defense, and a veteran QB. I expect them to win this one comfortably.


#3: San Francisco 49ers -5.5

Another team that I have a 'future' wager on. I know that Alex Smith sucks, I know that CRAPtree hasn't played all of preseason, and I know that San Fran under-achieved last year. Well, none of it will matter in this game. What will matter here is 49ers' ability to run the ball against a pretty mediocre run-D of Seattle (bottom 10 last year). I expect Niners' O-line to improve this year (they have too much talent there not to) and both Gore and Hunter (he looked great in pre-season) to run very well in this one. At the same time, San Fran's run game will open up play-action passing for Smith, who will have Edwards, Crabtree, Morgan, and Davis at his disposal. Trufant is not the same player he once was and opposite him Seattle is starting a 27-year old CB who played in the Canadian Football League last year. I expect San Fran's offense to be able to move the ball fairly easily in this one. On the other side, Seattle's O-line has some injury concerns and I don't see them being very successful against a San Fran run D that ranked 6th last year. Why is running the ball important for Seattle? Well because Tarvaris Jackson might be the only starting QB in the NFL who is worse than Smith. The fact that Sidney Rice is out for this game doesn't help the matters. Sure, Seattle has Zach Miller now but San Fran is pretty good at defending TE's and I don't see him being a big factor. Bottom line here is that Seattle will not be able to stop this San Fran running game, while I don't see them doing much offensively either. Niners win this one by at least a TD.


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#2
Posted: 9/10/2011 5:11:31 AM
#4: Teaser: Houston Texans -3 / Chicago Bears +9
#5: Teaser: Houston Texans -3 / Miami Dolphins +13


Alright, first of all I don't see how the Texans will lose this game. They have one of the best O-lines and rushing attacks in the league, and will be going up against a team that ranked 25th defensively in stopping the run last year. At the same time I don't see how Indy will be able to run the ball behind a pretty weak O-line of theirs. Collins is no Manning, and without much threat of a running game I see this Texans-D tattooing him multiple times. I know Houston was a horrid D last year, but with Wade Phillips running the show and improved secondary, I expect this to be a pretty solid unit this season. They've played very well in the preseason and I see no reason why that shouldn't carry over against Kerry Collins and Co. I expect Houston to win by at least a TD.

One benefit of teasers is that no matter what kind of odds/juice is on the original line, the combination of a 2-team 6 point teaser will always give you 10% vig. Bears -3 was juiced up to -130 in one of my books. That's crazy to lay 30 cents of juice on one game. But teasing them with Houston, eliminates 20 cents of juice, while at the same time improves the line as well. In terms of backing Chicago, I think most people have forgotten that Bears made it to the NFC Championship last year. Sure this team might take a step back since they have a tougher schedule, but this is still a squad with plenty of talent. First of all their D is top 5! Their Special Teams are exceptional (coverage and returns). And finally, this is the 2nd year of the Mike Martz experiment, therefore the offense will naturally improve. Falcons are a solid squad but to me they're way over-rated! Power running game won't work against Chicago as they have one of the best run-defenses in the league. I know Falcons want to open-up the passing game this season, but this team has a rookie WR starting, a 60-year old TE, and a running back that doesn't know how to catch the ball out of the backfield. I don't think this offense will be as sharp in the beginning of a season as some people are expecting. I expect a pretty close game with either team having a chance to win it at the end.

In terms of the Dolphins, well, here's another team that is under-rated while their opponent is way over-rated. Miami has a very solid defense, with solid secondary, a 'monster' in Cameron Wake, and a tough D-Line with Soliai anchoring that unit. Miami was the 6th best defensive team last year and I expect this team to play even better in 2011 (especially in terms of generating more turn-overs). Offensively, I expect them to improve as well, especially after departure of their very conservative OC after last season. Henne looked good in the preseason and Bush has added a new dimension to the attack. Patriots secondary can be beat and I see a healthy Marshall along with Bess and Co. taking advantage. New England is a very good team but they'll be on a road, playing a solid defensive opponent , and a Miami team which is on 'double-revenge' in this one after getting embarrassed both times in 2010. I see a very strong effort from Miami in their home-opener and wouldn't be surprised if they won the game.

Good luck!

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

-----------------------------------
TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580




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#3
Posted: 9/10/2011 5:13:29 AM
GL Bodio this season and this weekend. 
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#4
Posted: 9/10/2011 5:28:31 AM
Great info as always, enjoy to read this valuable piece of work! Thank you buddy!

In long term bets there are more predictable factor in front of capping daily games in my oppinion. It's easier to predict for a whole season than a single game and if your research was successful you have more chance to win. I'm more auspicious in long term wagers than other bets therefore I play more units than usually.

Are you risking 1unit for future wagers?

GL

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#5
Posted: 9/10/2011 5:29:48 AM
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#6
Posted: 9/10/2011 5:39:49 AM
I've got Houston -10, Dolphins +4, bears +½. Where are you getting these lines for the 6-point teaser? Houston have 1 point too many, dolp missing 3 and bears 2½. This is at 5dimes, by the way.
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#7
Posted: 9/10/2011 5:50:07 AM
thanks for the detailed write ups. Are you going to post up similar information like MLB, that includes your leans?
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#8
Posted: 9/10/2011 7:01:11 AM
BOL this weekend
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#9
Posted: 9/10/2011 7:48:44 AM
love the Pitt play, thoughts on the falcons vs bears? BOL this week
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#10
Posted: 9/10/2011 8:05:46 AM
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#11
Posted: 9/10/2011 8:22:17 AM
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#12
Posted: 9/10/2011 8:27:04 AM
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#13
Posted: 9/10/2011 9:37:24 AM

love smith at home 98 qb rating 11/4 td/int and 60 percent completion ratio.

also, t-jack behind center and no singletary bad calls to bail out seattle defense.

 

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#14
Posted: 9/10/2011 9:47:44 AM
A new beginning and Good Luck to you my Brother (Brutha) Bodio,The Vegas Buster.
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#15
Posted: 9/10/2011 10:02:39 AM
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#16
Posted: 9/10/2011 10:32:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fuxy008:

Great info as always, enjoy to read this valuable piece of work! Thank you buddy!

In long term bets there are more predictable factor in front of capping daily games in my oppinion. It's easier to predict for a whole season than a single game and if your research was successful you have more chance to win. I'm more auspicious in long term wagers than other bets therefore I play more units than usually.

Are you risking 1unit for future wagers?

GL



Yes...the same unit amounts
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#17
Posted: 9/10/2011 10:36:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by spixelpew:

I've got Houston -10, Dolphins +4, bears +½. Where are you getting these lines for the 6-point teaser? Houston have 1 point too many, dolp missing 3 and bears 2½. This is at 5dimes, by the way.


Bodog...they're a great 'square' book to have in your pocket for football.  5Dimes lets you tease 10 with Houston, at Bodog you can tease 9. 

Dolphins +4??  that's way too low...not sure where you got that
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#18
Posted: 9/10/2011 10:36:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by eyemtlaw:

thanks for the detailed write ups. Are you going to post up similar information like MLB, that includes your leans?


Yes, after about 4 weeks of the season.  That's when statistical data becomes much more relevant. 
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#19
Posted: 9/10/2011 10:38:00 AM
love the plays bodio. I always get told how teasers how sucker bets, but I find myself to be successful on them so I continue to play them. Nice to see one of the best cappers on here doing the same. Ive got the steelers ML and then 6 point teaser with SD (-2.5) and Tenn (+7.5)
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#20
Posted: 9/10/2011 10:38:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by eyemtlaw:

thanks for the detailed write ups. Are you going to post up similar information like MLB, that includes your leans?


My other strong leans this weekend are/were:

Rams +4.5
Bucs -1
Chiefs -5.5
Jets -4.5
Raiders +3

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#21
Posted: 9/10/2011 10:40:10 AM
love the plays bodio. I always get told how teasers how sucker bets, but I find myself to be successful on them so I continue to play them. Nice to see one of the best cappers on here doing the same. Ive got the steelers ML and then 6 point teaser with SD (-2.5) and Tenn (+7.5)
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#22
Posted: 9/10/2011 10:40:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ats_mike:

love the Pitt play, thoughts on the falcons vs bears? BOL this week


To me this line is kind of ridiculous.  There's a reason why 'sharp' books moved off +3 and even +2.5 for the Bears.  Chicago is +1 at Pinny now, but square-jobs like Bodog still have them at +3, though at very inflated juice.  I couldn't get Bears +3 anywhere so I decided to tease them with Houston.  I think Bears are a very strong play at home against an over-valued Falcons team.  We'll see Sunday, but I don't think ATL will be as good as all so-called 'experts' are predicting.  Saints are the team to beat in that division IMO.

good luck
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#23
Posted: 9/10/2011 10:42:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Qncyk1:

love smith at home 98 qb rating 11/4 td/int and 60 percent completion ratio.

also, t-jack behind center and no singletary bad calls to bail out seattle defense.

 



Nice stats.  Yes, Smith is much more comfortable at home.  Either way, he's a better QB (yes I cringed when I typed that) than Jackson!  I truly see a very solid effort from Niners' running game and their D in this one.  Hopefully the 'Harbaugh' era begins in style!
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#24
Posted: 9/10/2011 10:43:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gusto56:

A new beginning and Good Luck to you my Brother (Brutha) Bodio,The Vegas Buster.


hehe..VegasButcher, VegasBuster...it's all the same right?  :)
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#25
Posted: 9/10/2011 10:45:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by steelwill43:

love the plays bodio. I always get told how teasers how sucker bets, but I find myself to be successful on them so I continue to play them. Nice to see one of the best cappers on here doing the same. Ive got the steelers ML and then 6 point teaser with SD (-2.5) and Tenn (+7.5)


Yeah, I've also had a lot of success with Teasers.  It usually works really well when you have 'value' on a particular line and then you tease it even further.  I have to wait until week 4 or 5 to start getting some solid statistical #'s for my model but even using some 'adjusted' 2010 stats to plug in for now (adjusted for 2011 changes / projections) there's some solid 'value' in backing Bears + Dolphins straight up with the current lines...
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