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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: AFC & NFC Championship Games
MJ2345
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#51
Posted: 1/18/2011 11:14:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Both road teams wont cover...................


Yup as it looks that seems impossible
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#52
Posted: 1/18/2011 11:20:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 91STEELERS:

steelers were with out troy and the best tight end in the nfl heath miller. jets had a kick off return for a touchdown opening kickoff and i dont c that happening again. matt spaeth steelers other tight end dropped numerous balls thrown to his chest all night and dropped a garbage load of them. with heath back in i dont c that happening.there will be adjustments made im sure of that. person lebeau will have the run game stopped again and will let sanchez try to beat them through the air but with troy in makes alot of qbs think twice before they throw.also that safety they had wont happen again either and i c ben having a big day with the jets blitzing him alot. rothlisberger and brady are two different backs and you have to defend differently between the two. if jets blitz ben like they did brady steelers will have there way with them.

The Jets don't need to blitz to create pressure with that Steeler Oline

And not sure what game u were watching but the Jets didn't blitz Brady that much...they played zone coverages in the middle and left the outside man to man with safety's up top.  A lot of the pressure was created with 3 or 4 people

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#53
Posted: 1/18/2011 11:21:49 PM
I don't think Jets win by 11, but I can see...Jets 20 Steelers 17

I locked Jets +4.5 (hook) about an hour ago.
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#54
Posted: 1/18/2011 11:33:52 PM

Just some raw numbers for those that are so confident that Big Ben can carve up this Jets D if they blitz him...DO NOT ignore the sorry state of the Steelers Oline...expect a couple forced fumbles this Sunday leading to a short field for the J-E-T-S.

Coincidentally, the Steelers' own quarterback is susceptible to blitz packages. Since Ben Roethlisberger returned from suspension in Week 5, the Steelers have excelled against three or four pass-rushers, averaging 7.7 yards per play with a 53 percent Success Rate -- second in the league by just a few decimal points in both categories. Against five rushers, that Success Rate falls to 39 percent (24th in the league), and 40 percent against big blitzes (20th).

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#55
Posted: 1/18/2011 11:37:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bigslickk:

Just some raw numbers for those that are so confident that Big Ben can carve up this Jets D if they blitz him...DO NOT ignore the sorry state of the Steelers Oline...expect a couple forced fumbles this Sunday leading to a short field for the J-E-T-S.

Coincidentally, the Steelers' own quarterback is susceptible to blitz packages. Since Ben Roethlisberger returned from suspension in Week 5, the Steelers have excelled against three or four pass-rushers, averaging 7.7 yards per play with a 53 percent Success Rate -- second in the league by just a few decimal points in both categories. Against five rushers, that Success Rate falls to 39 percent (24th in the league), and 40 percent against big blitzes (20th).

yes sir.. The steelers O-line ranked 20th in the NFL in efficiency and are going up against the 5th ranked efficient D-Line of the Jets ... The Jets rank #3 on the o-line
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#56
Posted: 1/19/2011 12:23:14 AM
on both those plays uriss!
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#57
Posted: 1/19/2011 12:21:48 PM
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#58
Posted: 1/19/2011 2:40:59 PM
BOL BUDDY...WE ARE AGAINST EACH OTHER THIS WEEK...SO ONE OF US WILL BE HAPPY
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#59
Posted: 1/19/2011 3:48:10 PM
In the category of QB ratings, Mark Sanchez was 27th during the regular season. Keep that in mind before you go all-in on the Jets. That rating is worst than studs like Chad Henne, Shaun Hill, Kerry Collins, Alex Smith and Carson Palmer.
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#60
Posted: 1/19/2011 4:06:33 PM
I am going to tease Jets +10.5 and over 32 if weather is ok?
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#61
Posted: 1/20/2011 12:09:54 AM
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears:
   I am fully aware that most people who bet the Bears this weekend are probably going to think that they are a sharp, or they know where all the money is going yada yada yada... I mean they are a home dog getting 3 1/2 in a Playoff game... I have already read enough threads that say the Public is all over the Packers... I will repeat myself for the 100th time... THE BOOKS ARE NOT TRYING TO TRICK YOU...THEY WANT EVEN ACTION ON THE GAME... THAT IS IT... When you realize betting is situational and not a perception of what the "PUBLIC" or "SHARPS" are on you may win some money... The consensus report or any other web site that tells you percentages of who is on and at what percentage is INACCURATE and not indicative of the truth...  If the Bears win I will guarantee you some shmuck will start a thread that VEGAS got killed... Couldn't be more far fetched then saying PrimeTimeBoys bets real money

People are saying its IMPOSSIBLE for two 6th seeds to make it to the Super Bowl... Why is that?  because its never been done before? Its HORSESHIT reasoning like this that effects peoples bets and their wallets... Let me assure you...IT IS POSSIBLE... and in my opinion, very likely! Why?  Because they are better than their opponents

On to the game... What I have learned in betting NFL playoffs is trying to find that hot team going into the playoffs is usually money... That team is the Green bay Packers... I said in the beginning of the Playoffs, in my first playoff thread, that the Packers will make a stamp against the Eagles and show you that they are the team to beat in the NFC... That is exactly what they did... they are now a 3 1/2 point Favorite on the road in a NFC championship game...  I am so confident in the Packers this weekend its hard to hold back my opinions...

This Bears defense is not that good... that is just my opinion,,, I believe they are smoke in mirrors and are extremely vulnerable... The PAckers are just getting started gentlemen... You want to put you're money on the Bears, go right ahead, if you think that is the right side more power to ya... I'm not even going to talk about statistics or efficiency and so on... Of course I looked at all that stuff...But I am betting the Packers basically on what my eyes have seen... Same goes with the jets... It's the 2 teams whom I believed would make it to the end for MANY reasons, before the season started and at the start of the playoffs...  Some times you just have a feeling when you watch a team play, and I think that these 2 teams are CLEARLY the 2 best teams in the NFL...

Green Bay Packers 27  Chicago Bears 17

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#62
Posted: 1/20/2011 12:52:02 AM
Good stuff.  I too believe Jets will pass to open up the run.  A lot of people looking at the stats of the first game and making a play solely on that but that is a mistake....case in point...many saw what NE did to the Jets on that Monday night and blindly took NE last week.  Brad Smith is under appreciated and I hope he plays Sunday because he adds variety to their offense and is a great special teams player.  GL buddy and lets cash
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#63
Posted: 1/20/2011 12:55:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 91STEELERS:

steelers were with out troy and the best tight end in the nfl heath miller. jets had a kick off return for a touchdown opening kickoff and i dont c that happening again. matt spaeth steelers other tight end dropped numerous balls thrown to his chest all night and dropped a garbage load of them. with heath back in i dont c that happening.there will be adjustments made im sure of that. person lebeau will have the run game stopped again and will let sanchez try to beat them through the air but with troy in makes alot of qbs think twice before they throw.also that safety they had wont happen again either and i c ben having a big day with the jets blitzing him alot. rothlisberger and brady are two different backs and you have to defend differently between the two. if jets blitz ben like they did brady steelers will have there way with them.

the jets didnt blitz brady nearly as much as they usually do they played a lot of zone on those little underneath option route pats love to run... they have been playing a lot of zone in the playoffs so far and it its paid off they successfully confusing manning and brady and i dont big ben is half a smart as those 2

the steelers wont be able to run on the jets and when they do blitz i think they will be able to get pressure on ben cuz that o line is beat up and they r a very good tackling team i dont expect him to break many tackles like he did vs ravens

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#64
Posted: 1/20/2011 12:57:39 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by 91STEELERS:

also i know stats show steelers r pretty good in covering the pass but i have been watching my steelers for god knows how many years and we r very vulnerable to the pass.we finally got rid of deshea townsend who was the worst corner in steeler history. why we kept him for so long i dont have a clue. i was actually hoping we would of picked kyle wilson of boise st instead of pouncey our center. i have to admit mcfadden and ike taylor do a real good job back there as of late . im really hoping if steelers do get through the jets that i hope we play bears in the bowl cuz i fear aaron rodgers passing game

we agree in the fact that the steelers r a bad match up for packers if they both make it to the superbowl i will pound the packers...

 

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#65
Posted: 1/20/2011 1:00:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CalBear:

Good stuff.  I too believe Jets will pass to open up the run.  A lot of people looking at the stats of the first game and making a play solely on that but that is a mistake....case in point...many saw what NE did to the Jets on that Monday night and blindly took NE last week.  Brad Smith is under appreciated and I hope he plays Sunday because he adds variety to their offense and is a great special teams player.  GL buddy and lets cash
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#66
Posted: 1/20/2011 1:08:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 2Team_Parlay:

the jets didnt blitz brady nearly as much as they usually do they played a lot of zone on those little underneath option route pats love to run... they have been playing a lot of zone in the playoffs so far and it its paid off they successfully confusing manning and brady and i dont big ben is half a smart as those 2

the steelers wont be able to run on the jets and when they do blitz i think they will be able to get pressure on ben cuz that o line is beat up and they r a very good tackling team i dont expect him to break many tackles like he did vs ravens

The Jets have been playing a man zone... their corners Revis and Crom are playing Man... Their safety's and line backers are playing zone... and there 4 down men are playing un real... Unless the Jets make a mistake this defens (along with the talent) they have is awesome to watch... They are not fooled on oplay action because their corners are playing man and their safteys are just sitting and reacting... the line backers are just reacting to the play whether its a run, pass to the flat, or a whatever and they are attacking... when ever brady or manning dumped to a check down at least 2 jet players wre on top of it... this defense is fun to watch if u understand the schematics to what rex is doing
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MJ2345
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#67
Posted: 1/20/2011 1:09:30 AM
URISS,
I will say one more thing if you have played sports its not always about the best team winning there are other factors.And also this your thinking that they are the better teams
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#68
Posted: 1/20/2011 1:11:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MJ2345:

URISS,
I will say one more thing if you have played sports its not always about the best team winning there are other factors.And also this your thinking that they are the better teams
i am well aware and yes i played a sport not "sports" at a very high level..... regardless i said it was "my opinion"
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#69
Posted: 1/20/2011 1:13:21 AM
Of course and i always look at your opinion we jusr disagree this week but thats what this forum is for to state your opinions on games
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#70
Posted: 1/20/2011 1:15:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MJ2345:

Of course and i always look at your opinion we jusr disagree this week but thats what this forum is for to state your opinions on games
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#71
Posted: 1/20/2011 1:24:23 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by URISS2302:

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears:
   I am fully aware that most people who bet the Bears this weekend are probably going to think that they are a sharp, or they know where all the money is going yada yada yada... I mean they are a home dog getting 3 1/2 in a Playoff game... I have already read enough threads that say the Public is all over the Packers... I will repeat myself for the 100th time... THE BOOKS ARE NOT TRYING TO TRICK YOU...THEY WANT EVEN ACTION ON THE GAME... THAT IS IT... When you realize betting is situational and not a perception of what the "PUBLIC" or "SHARPS" are on you may win some money... The consensus report or any other web site that tells you percentages of who is on and at what percentage is INACCURATE and not indicative of the truth...  If the Bears win I will guarantee you some shmuck will start a thread that VEGAS got killed... Couldn't be more far fetched then saying PrimeTimeBoys bets real money

People are saying its IMPOSSIBLE for two 6th seeds to make it to the Super Bowl... Why is that?  because its never been done before? Its HORSESHIT reasoning like this that effects peoples bets and their wallets... Let me assure you...IT IS POSSIBLE... and in my opinion, very likely! Why?  Because they are better than their opponents

On to the game... What I have learned in betting NFL playoffs is trying to find that hot team going into the playoffs is usually money... That team is the Green bay Packers... I said in the beginning of the Playoffs, in my first playoff thread, that the Packers will make a stamp against the Eagles and show you that they are the team to beat in the NFC... That is exactly what they did... they are now a 3 1/2 point Favorite on the road in a NFC championship game...  I am so confident in the Packers this weekend its hard to hold back my opinions...

This Bears defense is not that good... that is just my opinion,,, I believe they are smoke in mirrors and are extremely vulnerable... The PAckers are just getting started gentlemen... You want to put you're money on the Bears, go right ahead, if you think that is the right side more power to ya... I'm not even going to talk about statistics or efficiency and so on... Of course I looked at all that stuff...But I am betting the Packers basically on what my eyes have seen... Same goes with the jets... It's the 2 teams whom I believed would make it to the end for MANY reasons, before the season started and at the start of the playoffs...  Some times you just have a feeling when you watch a team play, and I think that these 2 teams are CLEARLY the 2 best teams in the NFL...

Green Bay Packers 27  Chicago Bears 17

Bears ARE the sharp bet this week......Only reason why Green Bay is 3.5 point favorites is to even out the action a little on the game...hence your quote "the books want even action on the game"....So the line is OFF....off by 4.5 points just to get even action on the game.....and the SITUATION of the game is a bad spot for Green Bay.....on the road....divisional.....giving points.....on a public HIGH.......

and both teams you have are better than their opponents?......you are half right....GB is a better team than Chicago yes.....But Pittsburgh is a better team than the Jets.....

either way that was a great prediction at the beginning of the season ......may the better teams win.......I do want to say A-ROD in the Superbowl

 Im pumped for this Sunday

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#72
Posted: 1/20/2011 1:31:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bruuuuce78:

Bears ARE the sharp bet this week......Only reason why Green Bay is 3.5 point favorites is to even out the action a little on the game...hence your quote "the books want even action on the game"....So the line is OFF....off by 4.5 points just to get even action on the game.....and the SITUATION of the game is a bad spot for Green Bay.....on the road....divisional.....giving points.....on a public HIGH.......

and both teams you have are better than their opponents?......you are half right....GB is a better team than Chicago yes.....But Pittsburgh is a better team than the Jets.....

either way that was a great prediction at the beginning of the season ......may the better teams win.......I do want to say A-ROD in the Superbowl

 Im pumped for this Sunday

  I'm pumped too... I think the Packers VS the Jets or Steelers will make for a GREAT Superbowl
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#73
Posted: 1/20/2011 1:36:13 AM
I just think the Jets are boring to watch.....I dont want to see them in the Superbowl......I want to see some gadget plays and bombs......
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#74
Posted: 1/20/2011 1:38:37 AM
if u hate $$$$$$ bet the steelers and thats how u feel after the game like be steelen it
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#75
Posted: 1/20/2011 5:49:53 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by onebadgolfer:

In the category of QB ratings, Mark Sanchez was 27th during the regular season. Keep that in mind before you go all-in on the Jets. That rating is worst than studs like Chad Henne, Shaun Hill, Kerry Collins, Alex Smith and Carson Palmer.

 

Hmm good point.  So obviously they lost to INDY and NWE in the playoffs because how bad he was.

 

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