NFL Divisional Weekend

YTD ATS: 56-44...........ML Dogs: 17-25 (+2.32)

I haven't bet anything yet, just throwing this out there for those that want to chat as I thought there was a good discussion last week.

I'll most likely be on the Steelers and Packers for sure. Still looking at the other two games.

Anyone have some compelling points on Atlanta?

I'm interested to see your thoughts on the Steelers. My early lean is the Ravens.

As for Atlanta, besides being at home where Ryan has only lost twice in his career, I doubt the Packers newfound running game will have much success against a very stout Atlanta run D. The Falcons also have a very big coaching advantage. The Pack should have not been in a situation to lose that game yesterday and McCarthy is a complete puss who makes tons of mistakes during the game. For example, in the regular season meeting with Atlanta, he didn't challenge an obvious drop by Gonzalez on 4th down which led to an Atl TD. Challenge that and the Pack prob win the game. You said it yourself in another thread, this guy will cost the Packers down the line with his horrible coaching. That being said, Rodgers will be able to move the ball through the air and it will be a very tight one possession game. By far the toughest game of the weekend to pick.

whats matty ice...something like 20-2 at home?

Can u please tell me at what point in the game this occured?  If ur just taking this from that other idiot that posted about this game well guess what...it never happened!  There was no drop by Gonzalez that led to any TD's....sheesh u guys gotta get it right before posting this garbage.  He had a TD late in the 2nd quarter and it wasn't anywhere remotely close to a drop.  There was also a play on 3rd and 1 from the GB 1 late in the 3rd...they passed it to Gonzalez for NO GAIN.  Atlanta thought he was in the end zone and challenged but lost the challenge.  The next play Turner ran it in for the score on 4th and 1.....

NEPatriots12 - Disregard my last post...i was confused as to what play u were referring too...

personally, i think the GB/ATL game is a no play for me.  There is absolutely no love for the Falcons this week, and quite simply put the NFC is not as strong as the AFC so I believe the talent levels are not that far apart.  Is AR really better than Matty in Atlanta?  Can GB run the ball for a second week in a row?  There are many uncertainties in this game and to me with SO MUCH love on the Packers and opening with the short number scares the hell out of me.

I do like the over in this game, as both teams have the weapons to launch the ball when the other is down by 2 scores, which if that happens I thin the flood gates will open....

BTW - great thread last week and loved following along.

good luck this week Andy........

Love the Steelers against that overrated Baltimore team.....Like the Packers but am nervous about that pick......

How can you not already have the Bears on your card Andy ?

Andy may not have, but I hit the Bears -10 already. 

-9.5 here Glyde..............

gotta disagree w/ the no love for atl looks like plenty of action on atl on anything less than 3 imo which spells trap.  I'm not getting caught up in minutia in this one Pack on that speciaql ride the Cards and Giants were on and no reason to fear the road w/  a defense as stout as theirs w/ best QB in the NFC and new found fresh legs back it just spells story.  As far as an arguement to be made for Falcons one can throw out something mentioned in my thread such as Mike McCarthy and his inabaility to make correct decisions from play calling to clock mgmnt.  I feel most coaches get too much criticism in these categories and not enough credit for having their players running through a wall for them....i'll take the latter every Sunday!

I like the Packers, Steelers, Jets and Chicago.  I realize Atlanta beat the Packers earlier, however, if you watched that game GB fumble at the goal line and out played Atlanta..Plus the short line with the #1 seed and home..

Chicago will gets its revenge on Seattle from an earlier loss in the year.  Seattle will not score more than 10 points against the bears.

 

GL

What is everyone's thoughts on the Jets/Pats game?

Falcons have much better offensive line and special teams than the Packers.   That more than makes up for any discrepancy between Rodgers and Ryan IMO.    Add the advantage of an extra week to rest and prepare for the Packers, plus HFA, and it adds up to a Falcons win & cover.     Oh yeah, Falcons have a health advantage too, just compare each team's injury report. 

Actually, for me the easier game is Bears -10 over Seahawks.   I think they win in a similar fashion as the Ravens did over the Chiefs.....not as lopsided of a game, but an easy double digit win, thanks to Bears D and special teams.

GL

Prob the worst loss I've taken this season.  Not in terms of units lost, but just a stinging loss.  I remember this game to the T bc I had to hit the bars (I'm not a big drinker anymore) just to watch the game and I had to watch that bullshit with a bunch of bandwagon ATL fans.  I live in Virginia and I've never seen so many ppl rooting for a meaningless distance team in my life.  The fumble at the 1, or endzone as I'd like to call it was CRUCIAL.  This is an extremely tough game to cap imo.  Both teams are stacked in different areas.  I want to believe in the Pack though.  No play ats for me yet other than NE, but unless something changes I'm going to back the Pack.  I'm not staying away from any games this week.  That's been one of my downfalls this season; not betting games I felt good about and instead betting games I had inclinations about, but no solid feelings.  The over is a good play imo as Moose stated in this thread.  I think a lot of points will be scored.  I had a great night in the NBA tonight and I rolled over everything I made to the Bears.  I just can't drink the Seahags juice.  They're SO bad on the road and with the Bears resting, at home, and that defense against a mediocre at best Seahags offense I too think we'll see a dd win by the Bears.  I was watching the Oregon game tonight with some good friends from Boston who are die hard Pats fans and even they don't see the Pats covering 9 against the Jets.  Call me a fool, but I'm not doubting taking NE at -9.  I'll come at you with a writeup tomorrow Mac.  I'm not changing my opinion on this game until I get handed the L and then I'll be as square as a quadrilateral.  I did however put a moronic amount of money on a 7 point teaser which will either put me way in the black or finish my season in the NFL.

Pats -2, Bears -3, Pack +8.5

Call me a fool (I've been called worse by better), but the playoffs is where the real thrill is imo.  Let's get this money fellas! 

Thanks for opening the thread early Mac so we can get the discussions, arguing, and bickering going early You're a real class act my friend and I'm glad I found your thread at the beginning of the season

Love the Sean Paul avatar Moose! 

I really like that teaser, JohnAlz. I will however probably split it into two 2 teamers with Pats/Bears and Pats/Packers. I am gonna wait on the line too as the lines for all 3 are moving in my favour.

....I'd have to agree with everything said here.  Falcons are being disrespected in this position and this is a step up in terms of competition in comparison to the Eagles.  And it will be tough to get a repeat performance by James Starks as u saw in the wildcard.  This guy is an unproven commodity and I'm not so quick to drink the kool-aid that he can do it two weeks in a row.

Add in the factor of two weeks off plus the fact that this team is almost unbeatable at home and the Falcons are looking like the overlooked team if that is even possible as the #1 seed.  Everybody is on the Packers for some reason but they could have easily lost the last two weeks....they are a very good team but beatable IMO and the Falcons are a much more complete team than either the Eagles or Bears.

 

This is true. Any game the Pack enter from now on they have a disadvantage in the coaching department. McCarthy does a great job of getting the most out of his players and they clearly love the guy but he is a horrible game manager. My opinion on his management skills gets worse every week. There was no way Green Bay should have came close to losing that game last week. They went way too conservative in the 2nd half. I realize the run game was working but you have one of the best QB's in the league, put the ball in his hands and go for the jugular. The defensive calls were comical as well. They went to the prevent only rushing 3 fat guys giving Vick all day when he couldn't do squat vs the 5 rush+ sets earlier in the game. It's pitch and catch for any offense when you do that.

This bum coach is going to eventually burn the Pack which is a shame because they are smoking hot and have a lot of the other ingredients for a very deep run.

This is true as well. The Green Bay bandwagon continues to fill up so the Falcons absolutely have the "no respect" thing going for them this week.

Then again, Atlanta had that same thing going for them a couple of weeks ago on the Monday Night game against the Saints. That was a big spot for them to show they were for real. I recall Roddy White was sending out a bunch of tweets about it calling out some members of the media who were picking the Saints and weren't believers in the Falcons. Problem was Atlanta was simply over matched.

It's interesting that you bring those two teams up. I was thinking about this during the Packers/Eagles game. This Packer group is like a cross between those two teams. I'm not sure Aaron Rodgers is quite as good as Kurt Warner during that run but he's pretty close. Green Bay does have a lot better defense than that Cardinal team did though. And I'm not quite sure the Green Bay defense is quite as good as that Giant defense was on that run but again it is close. Green Bay does have a better QB though and an offense capable of going out and winning the game, not just managing it and making a key play here or there like that Giant team had with Eli as QB.

 

i have to agree about McCarthy to some extent. But i never thought Tom Coughlin would take the Giants to the promised land and he did, the giants won in spite of Coughlin and this packer team can win in spite of McCarthy. Starks has fresh legs and don't think for a minute the packers will not be able to run the ball here, this kid has a ton of talent and something very important at this time of the season , fresh legs !!!!!

I can see the Packers winning this game and heading right to chicago and then onto Dallas. Atlanta has not played well and Ryan has looked indecisve the lat 2 weeks.

Give me the better QB and the better D , i'm not to concerned about the coaching here as Mike Smith has no real big time edge over McCarthy

But those are the key mistakes Atlanta doesn't make. Their whole game is to extend drives and chew clock to keep their defense off the field as well as not committing turnovers. If you can contain Turner and stop Atlanta from converting 3rd downs they are really a very average team. They might even be below that as they are negative net yards per pass and rush. They are also 5th worst in yards per play on offense and 6th worst in yards per play on defense which is astonishing to me that they finished 13-3 despite those numbers. Green Bay moved it all over them in the first meeting, but again they simply fucked up and made the key mistakes that Atlanta didn't. Will that happen again? I don't know.

One interesting thing about Atlanta is their run defense has not been too sharp this year and on pass D they are allowing 65% completions which is near the bottom of the league. If the Packers have indeed found a run game I think it will be huge here because it may actually allow the Packers to be the ones to chew clock and extend drives. I heard this a few weeks ago and agree about Atlanta: This is a team built for cold weather outdoor football when running the ball and pounding away matters. They don't play a style of football suited to play in a dome and on a fast track in the playoffs. I think this surface favors Green Bay more so than if they had to play in Chicago for example.

On paper I think Green Bay is the better team. Although Atlanta gets a big edge in special teams and coaching. Situationally I think it's a bit of a wash, Green Bay is rolling but Atlanta is at home and have the whole "world is against us" thing going for them.

I'm not sure about that. Green Bay has lost a lot of guys this year but they really haven't lost anyone significant for a few weeks. The guys they have plugged in have played very well and continue to get better as they grow accustomed to their roles in the offense/defense. It's one of the reasons Green Bay is playing so well, they actually have some continuity for perhaps the first time all season.