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[NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Week 17 |
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nepatriots_12 |
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#26 Posted: 12/29/2010 12:27:47 AM
or are we talking about GB/NE?
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andarmac99 |
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#27 Posted: 12/29/2010 12:51:50 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:
Andy...i thought you played GB over NYG?
or are we talking about GB/NE?
Yes I did play GB -3 +100 over the G-Men but I was planning on rolling it over on them this week again and then again the next three for a shot a nice payout if they can get to the Super Bowl.
Problem is flash back to last week and my thinking was we'd get a reasonably cheap line this week in the Bears game and then I would just roll it onto the GB ML for the next 4 games. Unfortunately a Green Bay blowout (and everyone making them their sexy pick now) and a probable Bears lay down leads me to believe we will see a ML way north of -200. Now that's a problem because it cuts down the eventual payout of this rollover by quite a bit. Risking the 2 units at -200 or -300 won't get as much as if I could get -105 or something on the spread.
Right now I may just gamble and dump the 2 units on the spread. Even if the Bears lay down I think the Packers thrash them. Remember Cincy @ Jets Week 17 last year?
It's going to be a fun week trying to figure out how to play all these scenarios and get the most out of them.
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vue21849 |
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#28 Posted: 12/29/2010 12:53:39 AM  I agree with the call on Arizona. They're probably feelin' their oats after beating Dallas at home. In the meantime, the 49 ers are in total disarray with an interim HC that will more than likely be dismissed by the new incoming GM.
I think Denver is about to get a MAJOR BEATDOWN by the Bolts. While the Chargers are somewhat depressed by failing to make the playoffs, I can't picture them losing to a terrible Bronco squad that is still sucking on defense. Believe they still want to salvage the season by finishing 9 - 7. Besides Norv Turner just signed a new contract, so he's not going anywhere! |
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andarmac99 |
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#29 Posted: 12/29/2010 1:01:48 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:
Love all 3 picks Andy...I hit the first 2 early..will probably make a play on Houston as well.
What do you think of a Ravens/Colts 7pt tease?
Ravens -2.5/Colts -2
I still have to look into it....I am worried about the resurgence of the Bengals though...they looked great last week and their D is playing better. Getting back to the run game like last year.
It's Tenesee's superbowl too but I just don't see the Colts letting this one go at home. Their game is scheduled at the same time as Ten so they will play to win.
Any thoughts or are you leaning the other way?
I don't have much on the Colts game. Indy is not a team I want to bet against unless there is an overwhelming good situational spot to do so and I'm not sure I see one here so you should be good with the -2.
This time last night Pinnacle had Cincinnati +10 and for some reason I never fired and said darn it and went to bed. If it gets back to 10 I would probably take Cincy. I'm not sure if that offers much of an opinion on your Baltimore -2.5 or not. 
If you like the teaser then fire away my man.
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nepatriots_12 |
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#30 Posted: 12/29/2010 1:10:06 AM
GL this week...and I agree with everything you said about GB...all of my buddies are jumping on the bandwagon...regardless, it looks as if GB will be set up to play @Phi in round 1 and if all the love for Vick is still there and the spread is at least -3 I'll have a HUGE play on GB.
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andarmac99 |
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#31 Posted: 12/29/2010 1:11:39 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by FSerpico: Great stuff mac. Always enjoy reading your threads. I'd like to hear your thoughts on the Rams vs Hawks this week.
Line is Rams - 3 right now.. I feel like we have two teams here headed in opposite directions.And one team has a pretty good QB and the other doesnt. I like the Rams here to play with a ton of confidence after the niner win and a shot to win the division. This Seahawk team has not showed any signs of life or even a pulse latley.
Check out the Hawks last 3 games.It's simply not fair that this team even has a shot to make the playoffs this weekend.
L 40-21 at San Fran
L 34-18 vs Atlanta
L 38-15 at Tampa
Also like the Rams coaching staff over the Hawks. Caroll is an idiot and ex giant defensive coach Spags knows what it takes to get i t done.. Rams will pount the ball with Jackson and should make a play or two on special teams. Bradford can control the game.. I cant see the Hawks being dangerous in this game.
Thoughts ?
I don't have much of an opinion on this one.
Seattle sucks big time behind. But they do play in a tough stadium especially for a rook like Bradford. They also seem to pull some special teams plays out of their behind quite often at home. Is it Whitehurst or Hasselbeck starting?
I was really disappointed in what I saw out of the Rams last week. They had a reputation coming in as a bit of a choker team and they tried real hard to piss that easy win away last week. They failed miserably to crush the Niners early when San Fran couldn't get out of their own way. Then off a big kick return and another chance to put away SF they played so scared it was sad. No killer instinct, they don't know how to win and quite frankly I'm not sure that they are ready.
What I'm trying to say is as I sit here in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, I would not touch this game with a 10 foot pole (but things may change) so I must wish you all the best with your Rams bet.
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andarmac99 |
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#32 Posted: 12/29/2010 1:22:58 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by vue21849: I agree with the call on Arizona. They're probably feelin' their oats after beating Dallas at home. In the meantime, the 49 ers are in total disarray with an interim HC that will more than likely be dismissed by the new incoming GM.
I think Denver is about to get a MAJOR BEATDOWN by the Bolts. While the Chargers are somewhat depressed by failing to make the playoffs, I can't picture them losing to a terrible Bronco squad that is still sucking on defense. Believe they still want to salvage the season by finishing 9 - 7. Besides Norv Turner just signed a new contract, so he's not going anywhere!
Can't say I agree with this. Salvage the season by finishing 9-7? This team has the #1 offense and #2 defense in the NFL, a Top 5 quarterback in his prime, and had a cupcake schedule coming into the year. The Chargers should be 13-2 right now and on their way to making some serious noise in the postseason. Instead they've pissed it all away. Just my opinion but I don't think they give a garbage about finishing 9-7.
The difference between the best and worst teams in the NFL is not very much so if I see a spot where I think one team will emotionally letdown and another will come prepared to play I must get involved. This is why I love situational betting because if you can find spots where one team will not play up to snuff or another will play inspired you will usually find an edge that all the stats and power ratings and whatever won't account for.
"Besides Norv Turner just signed a new contract, so he's not going anywhere!"
This is another good reason for the Chargers to pack it up. How depressing is this news? It basically guarantees they won't win a Super Bowl and will continually underachieve for the duration of this new contract. Sad stuff if I'm a Charger, at least 3 more years pissed down the drain.
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andarmac99 |
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#33 Posted: 12/29/2010 1:28:13 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:
After looking into it more I like Balty and the Colts less and less...Arizona will probably be my biggest play this week..pretty happy I got the line at +7(-115).
GL this week...and I agree with everything you said about GB...all of my buddies are jumping on the bandwagon...regardless, it looks as if GB will be set up to play @Phi in round 1 and if all the love for Vick is still there and the spread is at least -3 I'll have a HUGE play on GB.
Same here. Line is down to +6 and +218 at Pinny. Got the best of this one which is really more important than "picking winners".
Houston line ticked up a pinch though.
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JohnAlz |
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#34 Posted: 12/29/2010 10:09:17 AM Love it love it love it! I've been waiting for this thread to pick your brain about that Arizona game! I like AZ as well Mac. I saw a Arizona team that looked like they were having fun against the Cowboys. That's a big change from the long faces that have been on the sidelines all year. Skelton actually has the ability to move the ball unlike Anderson, and the AZ defensive front looks like they've woken up. I dunno, maybe AZ played up to the hype of being at home on Christmas, but I'll take the 7 against SF. I am on the same wave as everything you said about this game! Good stuff!
Denver does look like a tempting pick. Chargers have played like slobs all year. What are they showing up for in Denver? Denver doesn't have garbage to play for either, but they have the X factor....Tim Tebow. That guy will play like this is the Superbowl bc he does it every week. I personally think the guy is a tool, but his work ethic and attitude are pretty unmatched and I think his positive attitude and encouragement could have Denver ready to roll SD this week. Not going to lock this one in yet because I have a feeling the public will still play SD, even at -3.5 and I'd like to get the hook if I can without buying it.
Browns are the only other team that is jumping off the page at me right now, but I'm going to have to take a close look at that one. I like that others are favoring this spot for them though.
Let's see how well I can stay away from playing totals this week! |
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#35 Posted: 12/29/2010 1:12:25 PM
Alright, I continued the rollover and fired the 2 units on Green Bay -10 -107 from the risk 1 to win 1 on GB -3 +100 last week.
Definitely not an ideal scenario here but I would rather lose than not bet and see the Packers romp. The line is already showing signs of going up so I fired. If it does go back down then so be it, sometimes you gamble with these lines and it doesn't work out.
Risking 2 to win 1.87.
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#36 Posted: 12/29/2010 2:12:11 PM
Little bit of + out there on the Bills.
The Bills stunk last week and embarrassed themselves and their fans in their home finale. I expect them to show up with some pride this week and play the way they have for most of their games since the bye and close the season strong. Even if the Jets starters play a half I don't think they will play with any urgency and the game plan will probably be very vanilla. I imagine we'll see the backups for at least a half and the Bills will have the edge there.
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#37 Posted: 12/29/2010 3:55:35 PM
Pitts has HUGE motivation to win this game. Win and gets 1st rd bye and rest for players, ie. Troy. Loses and play 1st game on rd. Cle beat them good last yr at home and some Pitts players have already mention about that game.
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glyde69 |
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#38 Posted: 12/29/2010 3:57:49 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Buffalo +1 & ML +105
Little bit of + out there on the Bills.
The Bills stunk last week and embarrassed themselves and their fans in their home finale. I expect them to show up with some pride this week and play the way they have for most of their games since the bye and close the season strong. Even if the Jets starters play a half I don't think they will play with any urgency and the game plan will probably be very vanilla. I imagine we'll see the backups for at least a half and the Bills will have the edge there.
Like this one. Thought I saw 3, but been really busy and haven't really even looked at the games yet.
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luckyly |
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#39 Posted: 12/29/2010 4:16:59 PM 2 teams 1h plays..pats..colts,,
pats will be takin the 2nd half off..
like the buff play. |
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tafter12 |
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#40 Posted: 12/29/2010 4:25:26 PM Nice Post. . .
I just looked at the 2009 teams that finished 1st in their division last year, and 5/8 lost the last game of the regular season. |
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tafter12 |
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#41 Posted: 12/29/2010 4:30:05 PM But Then again, in 2008, the division winners went 6-2
Did 08 go down to the wire with more scenarios similar to this year? Or is 09 more like this one? |
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Getty3 |
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#42 Posted: 12/29/2010 4:47:37 PM |
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#43 Posted: 12/29/2010 7:27:14 PM  bol
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#44 Posted: 12/29/2010 9:10:16 PM yo Mac while i dont necessarily disagree on your Zona pick, i'd like to put in my 2 cents on the game.
Owner York and Player Personnel Baalke have made it very clear that the Niners will come out and win this game. Interim coach Tomsula is fiery, passionate, and WILL have the players ready to play. He is not auditioning for a head coaching gig - he knows this is his one and only game to be a head coach in the NFL. The Niners are accustomed to blowing out Cards and I could definitely see that happening at home as they take out a years worth of frustration and drill these losers like we always do. It'll be a party at the Stick this Sunday!
PS - im a niners homer and was hoping for -3. i wouldnt lay 7 with these shitbags, and i dont blame anyone for taking the 7 either. |
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mushroomspore |
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#45 Posted: 12/29/2010 9:21:27 PM Like the Broncos pick |
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#46 Posted: 12/29/2010 10:07:21 PM
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andarmac99 |
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#47 Posted: 12/29/2010 10:40:14 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by JohnAlz: Love it love it love it! I've been waiting for this thread to pick your brain about that Arizona game! I like AZ as well Mac. I saw a Arizona team that looked like they were having fun against the Cowboys. That's a big change from the long faces that have been on the sidelines all year. Skelton actually has the ability to move the ball unlike Anderson, and the AZ defensive front looks like they've woken up. I dunno, maybe AZ played up to the hype of being at home on Christmas, but I'll take the 7 against SF. I am on the same wave as everything you said about this game! Good stuff!
Denver does look like a tempting pick. Chargers have played like slobs all year. What are they showing up for in Denver? Denver doesn't have garbage to play for either, but they have the X factor....Tim Tebow. That guy will play like this is the Superbowl bc he does it every week. I personally think the guy is a tool, but his work ethic and attitude are pretty unmatched and I think his positive attitude and encouragement could have Denver ready to roll SD this week. Not going to lock this one in yet because I have a feeling the public will still play SD, even at -3.5 and I'd like to get the hook if I can without buying it.
Browns are the only other team that is jumping off the page at me right now, but I'm going to have to take a close look at that one. I like that others are favoring this spot for them though.
Let's see how well I can stay away from playing totals this week!
This is the most important part.
I will ride the momentum again for another week.
I was looking at the Browns earlier but I have a Cleveland Under 5.5 wins ticket still alive this week so I basically have Pittsburgh ML for Sunday. I don't have a strong enough feeling on the Browns this week to try to hedge that Under ticket. Think I'll pass there. What have ya got on the Browns John?
I've also got the Bills Under 5 wins but I feel good that they win this week so I took them hoping they win and I push the season wins bet and win the week 17 bet.
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andarmac99 |
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#48 Posted: 12/29/2010 10:57:21 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by luckyly: 2 teams 1h plays..pats..colts,,
pats will be takin the 2nd half off..
like the buff play.
I think if I was going to play the bigger favs this week who are playing for positioning (which I'm not) I would go this route as well, that is play the 1st half.
If Baltimore looks up at the scoreboard or goes into halftime seeing the Steelers pasting the Browns then I think they'd rest their starters the 2nd half and -9.5 tickets become very dangerous. Same with Pittsburgh in a way, if for some reason the Bengals are laying it on Baltimore then I think Pittsburgh may rest their guys the 2nd half or 4th Q so Pittsburgh -6 full game wouldn't look as good.
Same situation with TB/NO. If the Saints look at the scoreboard and see Atlanta pounding Carolina then there is pretty much no point in playing their starters the rest of the way and I'm sure they would be yanked in a hurry as Payton showed no hesitation in resting his guys last year when there was nothing to play for. I liked Tampa even before this scenario went through my mind. Very tempting to bet the Bucs here. Atlanta really isn't in the same spot because they need to win, period. If they lose and Chicago wins in the late window then they lose home field advantage. Atlanta and Chicago don't play at the same time so Atlanta needs to take care of business. The Saints chances of moving up hinges on the Atlanta game and they both play at the same time.
Indy is another one. If they look at the scoreboard and see the Jags getting pumped then I have no doubt they pull the starters for at least a few drives (maybe the 4th Q). Curtis Painter anyone?
Of course all those above scenarios would need to involve one team getting pasted or a team not caring about their positioning for the starters to be pulled. You'd also need a good performance out of the other team. Regardless, if I liked any of those big favs I would go 1st half to be safe.
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andarmac99 |
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#49 Posted: 12/29/2010 11:06:18 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by mushroomspore: yo Mac while i dont necessarily disagree on your Zona pick, i'd like to put in my 2 cents on the game.
Owner York and Player Personnel Baalke have made it very clear that the Niners will come out and win this game. Interim coach Tomsula is fiery, passionate, and WILL have the players ready to play. He is not auditioning for a head coaching gig - he knows this is his one and only game to be a head coach in the NFL. The Niners are accustomed to blowing out Cards and I could definitely see that happening at home as they take out a years worth of frustration and drill these losers like we always do. It'll be a party at the Stick this Sunday!
PS - im a niners homer and was hoping for -3. i wouldnt lay 7 with these shitbags, and i dont blame anyone for taking the 7 either.
Good post. It's always good to hear a different viewpoint on a game.
I will have to give this interim coach a lot of credit if he gets these guys motivated enough to cover this spread, even win the game. It's just a very tough spot for these guys in my eyes. Management can say the team will play hard but they aren't the guys on the field hitting each other and putting their bodies on the line.
Then again........these are the Arizona Cardinals I'm betting on.
Hopefully it will indeed be a party for you at the stick this Sunday and not the funeral service I'm expecting.
btw - very trippy avatar.
GL this week.
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#50 Posted: 12/29/2010 11:11:16 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Barnstorm:
I see both sides of the SF/AZ argument. AZ playing with some passion, but they didn't look very good against the Cowboys after Kitna handed them 2 TDs. I think SF might be out to celebrate the departure of Singeltary. I would think things will have really lightened up around there. But just heard Patrick Willis is out. Still the D is tough and should be able to handle Skelton. And Alex Smith may be able to get the ball to Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree. Throw in a Tedd Ginn return or two and Niners could win 24-13.
Opening few lines from a San Francisco newspaper article this morning:
Many 49ers walking around the facility looked shell-shocked following the firing of Mike Singletary. They like Mike.
Vernon Davis called him a father figure who cared about his players as people first.
I still think the players cared about him. He was fired because as a coach he flat out sucked, not necessarily because the players didn't like him (see Phillips, Wade and Childress, Brad).
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