This is a very good line for me. Both teams are a disaster against the spread, but one team has a little more going for it than the other. 49ers are 1-5 ATS last 6 (5 they were favored and one of those). Cardinals are 2-4 ATS last 6 (2 they were favored and lost).
The 49ers have more talent and more upside and have won 3 of their last 5 meanwhile Cardinals are poor on both sides of the ball and have lost 5 straight.
Niners Offense: Troy Smith takes over and played very well against the Rams and then not very well against Tampa is #15 in defense and #8 in scoring defense........a far cry from where the Cardinals play defense.
Niners can run the ball behind Gore and althought the offensive numbers look putrid, they do have talent in TE Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Gore. They are #18 in passing yards, #23 in rushing and #31 in points scored. They have only scored more than 20 in 5 games, however 3 of the last 4 they have scored 20+.
Believe it or not the 49ers are actually leading the NFC West...yes #1......in total offense although #4 in scoring. They will get the ball in the endzone against the Cardinals.
Cardinals Defense: Laughable and will lead to the Niners putting up the most points for them all season. #31 in points allowed, #29 in yards allowed, #28 in passing yards and #29 in rushing yards....atleast they are consistant. The defense has given up 20 or more points in 9 or their 10 games. 5 games they gave up a minimum of 31 points and 2x's they gave up 41.
Cardinals Offense: Can they really be worse than their defense? Lets just say they are equally as bad. #31 total yards, #30 in passing yards, #30 in rushing and #28 in points scored.6 of their 10 games have scored less than 20 including 7 to Atlanta, 10 to San Diego, 10 to Seattle and last week only 13 to the Chiefs.....yikes......they better hope San Francisco doesn't have a good defense.
49ers Defense: Well, sorry Cardinals....they are above average on defense. #12total yards, #14 in rushing, #17 in passing and #18 in points allowed.
The 49ers are # 1 in the NFC west in total defense and 2nd in points allowed.
Interesting Tidbits:
SF 3rd down success rate 33.6% vs. AZ 28.0%
Red Zone Scoring % last 3 games: SF 50% AZ 37%
SF ALLOWS 3rd down success rate #8 36.8 vs. AZ #25 39.6
Overall I just see San Francisco with much more talent and seem to be "possibly" turning things around in the last 5games vs the Cardinals that are just dropping each week.
Believe it or not both teams still have a chance at the division, but the likelyhood is that the 49ers beleive this much more than the Cardinals. I cannot figure out why the Niners have struggled so much coming out of the gate, but I see them taking this game.
SANFRANCISCO 49ERS ML -120
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