Posted:
#1
Game: Bengals @ Jets
Time: 8:30 PM EST
Line: Bengals +10
I have a litmus test for posting threads to cap a game. I only post when I feel strongly about a game and preferably, it involves the Jets, Giants, Mets, or Nets. This game satisfies both conditions.
Almost a year ago, the Bengals came into Giants stadium and were getting about this many pts in Week 16 of the NFL season. It was a dark, rainy night with blustery winds much like what's outside your window right now if you live in NJ.
The Bengals decided to throw in the towel in the first quarter of that game with JT O'Sullivan relieving Carson Palmer after just three series. They ended up throwing for 37 yards total amassing a mere 109 yards of offense for the entire game.
That loss sealed the Bengals demise last year when the Jets beat them the following week on their own field 24-14. Including that laydown, the Bengals, who were looking to make a deep run in the playoffs last year, have gone 2-10 and are completely irrelevant in the AFC playoff picture - a picture they were once a vital part of.
All the above info is fully available to Covers members and many posters have them on their card looking for a repeat of the 37-0 whipping of last year.
Well, I'm on the Bengals for the following reasons:
1. The Jets are 2-3 ATS in their last 5 but anyone who saw the games knows they backdoored those two wins. This team simply can't avoid playing down to it's competition.
- They beat the 2-3 Broncos 24-20 on a Hail Mary pass interference call and subsequently played one of the most offensively inept games I've ever seen the Jets play in a 9-0 shutout by the Packers (Legitimately, 0-2 ATS)
- They beat the Lions 23-20 by getting 10 pts in the last 2:43. The Lions handed them a chance at OT when they decided that passing with 1 minute remaining on 3rd and 6 with their 3rd string QB was a better option than bringing the clock under 30 seconds. (0-3 ATS)
- The Cleveland abomination just showed this defense is NOWHERE NEAR what it was last year and neither is Revis. Championship caliber teams simply do not give up 59 yard 10 play drives in two minutes to a 3-6 Cleveland Brown team lead by a guy as thick and durable as a butterknife in Colt McCoy. (0-4 ATS)
- Then last week, Houston, trailing 24-7, scored TWENTY pts in the 4th to take a 25-24 lead only to lose after they decided that one-on-one coverage on the Jets only big time receiver, Braylon Edwards, was a good idea. (legitimately 0-5 ATS in their last 5)
Well the Bengals are 0-7 SU in their last seven and 1-6 ATS so they are equally as bad.
So why take them?
Too many points...
The Jets have won the last 5 by 4.6 pts against teams with a combined record of 15-36 (.306 winning percentage).
They have NO RIGHT to be giving ANY TEAM IN THE LEAGE 10 points right now.
If the Bengals were ever motivated to show up for a game, this is the one they had circled on their calendar. They showed offensive life against the Bills last week and given the wet conditions tonight, I don't see a huge offensive outburst coming by Sanchez. I also see a half empty stadium given that it's a holiday and you can stay at home with family in front of an HD 52' flat-screen instead of sitting outside in 35 degree weather in the rain.
If NONE of this convinces you and you still believe that the Jets giving 10 is reasonable, ask yourself ONE question:
What has changed in the past 4 days that would make you believe the Jets could cover a spread like this against a bad team when they haven't done exactly that in the last 5 times they've tried to do so?
The defense has major leaks...the Jets biggest game of the season is up next...it's a short work week and the Jets haven't had time to fix their deficiencies (deficiencies they will address for the Pats)...half the stadium will be empty...this is the Bengals Super Bowl...the line is moving in our favor...
2 road teams will win before this game starts...Let's get Cincy to make it a Turkey XXX....
Do the sensible thing here...
TAKE THE POINTS
Pick : BENGALS +10 OVER JETS
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