Kansas City Chiefs -1
It's really hard not to feel square betting on a bunch of public favorites and the Chiefs are another one of those favorites. I am guessing this has nothing to do with the good matchups they have with Denver but more so because of the fact that they lost such a close game in Oakland last weekend and surely they cannot lose two straight within their division. Well this is going to be a good game. Right now the Denver Broncos are feeling good about themselves, they are coming off a BYE WEEK and they are coming off their second win of the season over San Francisco in London, England a few weeks back. Having said that the Broncos are pretty much out of it at 2-6 SU and we haven't seen much fight from them at 2-6 ATS in those games. Winning away from home has been a big problem for Kansas City as they are 1-3 SU on the road having lost in Oakland, Houston and Indianapolis after opening their road schedule this season with a win in Cleveland. Denver however are only 1-3 SU at home this season and they too have lost three straight here going down to Oakland (allowing 59 points in that game), losing to the New York Jets and Indianapolis as well after beating Seattle in their home opener. So what do you with two teams, one who can't win on the road and has lost three straight and two who can't win at home and has lost three straight? This is a good one. Kansas City won by 20 points the last time they played here last January and that was their first win in Denver in more than five years but the Chiefs have their best team in more than five years.
IT'S SIMPLE, IF YOU CAN RUN THE BALL EFFECTIVELY AGAINST DENVER, YOU WILL WIN because they have the worst ranked run defense in the NFL right now and have allowed 151.5 rushing yards per home game in 2010 and have allowed 4.9 yards per carry in those games. Against most teams they could get away with that (obviously not with Oakland when they allowed 59 points at home) but when you really think about it, the run defense is probably why the Broncos are only 2-6 SU on the season. Kansas City is going to take advantage of that with the #1 rushing offense in the NFL this season at 179.6 rushing yards per game and a two headed rushing monster of RB Thomas Jones and RB Jamaal Charles and I really don't see how the Broncos can slow them down. Kansas City has not been as effective running the ball on the road this season and they average only 146.2 rushing yards per road game and average only 4.2 yards per carry (huge part of the problem for the Chiefs on the road) but again Denver has now allowed 200.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games, Kansas City is going to hand the ball to their two tailbacks a total of 40+ times in this game and the Chiefs secondary is playing well enough right now allowing only 5.8 yards per pass attempt their last three games that the combination of QB Kyle Orton and WR Brandon Lloyd is not much of a concern in this game. Denver has allowed 31.0 points per home game this season, the Chiefs are on the verge of an offensive breakout and when you put the #1 run game in the NFL against the worst run defense in the NFL, it's hard to believe that running game of the Chiefs won't control the outcome of this game.
One of the main reasons I am on the Chiefs in this one apart from the fact that they can pound the ball on the ground against this Denver defense is because Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a straight up loss and they have been one of the more effective bounce back teams in the NFL this season. Having said that, you won't be too enthused that KANSAS CITY HAS COVERED THE SPREAD IN ONLY 1 OF THEIR LAST 10 GAMES AS A FAVORITE and the last six times they were favored by 0.5 to 3 points, they went 0-5-1 ATS in those games but something has to give. Denver is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games coming off a straight up loss, they have been one of the least profitable teams to bet on over the course of the last five seasons and I just can't back a team that is 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog. This game is somewhat of a mess because we have a team (Kansas City) who can't win as a favorite and who can't win on the road and then we have another team (Oakland) who can't win at home and can't cover spreads as an underdog. What I do like about Kansas City however is that they are still very much in the AFC West race right now and winning this game is a priority. The Chiefs are an impressive 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and they have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 road games versus a team with a losing record at home on the season. THIS COULD BE A TRAP but I have a feeling the Chiefs make us regret not backing them if we take a seat and just watch so I am going with what looks like a freebie and betting on the Chiefs. Kansas City broke their winless streak in Denver at the very end of the 2009 season and they should have no problems extending a win streak.
RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT: *10 Units*
Kansas City 28, Denver 18