Beherenow...Week 8 winners

Houston (+5.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

I’m sorry but Houston was the better team BEFORE the Dallas Clark injury.  Their trouncing of the Colts in week 1 had a very strong “we’re done losing to you guys” feel to it.  With all of the injuries to the receiving corps, it will be difficult for Manning to take advantage of Houston’s biggest weakness (the secondary).  Texans ML. (Play of the week)

CINCINNATI (-2) over Miami

Chad Henne is due for a really bad game and I like Cincy’s chances of stopping the running game and forcing them to throw.  Bengals are sneakily approaching ‘so overrated that they’re now kind of underrated’ status.  They are easy to label overrated because their quarterback has no arm and used to be good and their two ‘star’ wideouts peaked 6 years ago.  But the defense is strong and the offense has been good enough to compete.  Also,  Miami is a bit overrated coming in.  In the past few years Miami has been a tough matchup because of the wildcat.  The threat of the wildcat opened things up for Henne last year and his numbers looked really good.  So far this season, the wildcat has been useless and seldom employed and Chad Henne has looked REALLY shaky.  This team caught Green Bay and Minnesota at the right time and pulled off two very flashy public wins.  Also, their dismantling by New England on Monday night was quickly overshadowed by the Moss trade and didn’t really affect Miami’s stock the way it should have.  Combine that with their close loss to an extremely overrated Pitt team last week and the Dolphins are chock full of false expectations.   

Buffalo (+7.5) over KANSAS CITY

I love getting over a touchdown with a team that can score points through the air.  I also love fading teams that lay 7.5 points and start Matt Cassel.  Look, I like the chiefs.  The running game is dynamic, the defense comes to play every week and the crowd is top notch.  But the quarterback is TERRIBLE and this hasn’t really been exposed yet.  I smell a slight let down for KC’s defense against a frisky dog with momentum and nothing to lose and if Cassel is forced to throw it…you get the picture.  Love it even more coming off an inflated win over one of the league’s worst teams. 

Tampa Bay (+3) over ARIZONA

Don’t see why Arizona would be favored over any team regardless of home field.  They beat a rookie QB in his first start (Bradford), the Raiders on a missed chip shot and the Saints without scoring any offensive touchdowns.  If they were 0-6 where would this line be?  Tampa -1?  Pick ‘em?  Certainly not -3.  Lots of value here.  Tampa Bay has played two public sides this season (NO and Pitt) and lost big, therefore lowering their stock.  Public has also seen Arizona upset super bowl champs in their one spotlight game.  There’s also some irrational lingering love for the cards because they’ve been good in the past.  Tampa’s shakiness at home last week is also a factor in this line, but I was impressed with the way they came back in that game.  The rams have a good defense and Freeman made plays when it mattered.  Wouldn't ever count on Max Hall or Derek Anderson to do the same. 

Tennessee (+4) over SAN DIEGO

There is just so much fade value on San Diego right now.  The idea that they are good is ENTIRELY based upon results from the past few seasons.  Their performance this season has given zero indication that this is a good football team and yet they continue to lay points against winning sides.    

Green Bay (+6) over NY JETS

This is a tough one with Green Bay primed for a let down after an emotional win over their bitter rival on national TV, but I’m convinced the Jets are a fade.  There is a lot of talk about them being the best team in the NFL right now and that might be true.  However, it is irrelevant because this is one of those years  where there isn’t a strong favorite and any team anointed as such is the product of the media’s desire to categorize things.  So if you wanna call the Jets the best team in football—I’m fine with that- but that doesn’t make them 6 points better than Green Bay.  This is a dog-fight season and this line is too high considering Green Bay’s offensive potential.  This line should be 3.5 but if that were the case the public would be all over NYJ.

NEW ORLEANS (-1) over Pittsburgh

New Orleans has certainly struggled, but the is a side that plays to it’s competition.  They will come to play against an overrated Pittsburgh team that opened as a favorite on their home turf.  I love the fade on Roethlisberger here, as the NOLA crowd should make things quite difficult for a man playing just his 3^rd football game of the season.  Pitt is really leaning on it’s defense here.  If New Orleans has anything left in the tank this season, they handle business here. 

BOL everyone.

CW

Don't like the Tenn play and no opinion on TB and Cincy.  Right on with everything else though.