Posted: 10/18/2010 7:17:44 PM
CLICK THEN READ.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
I had an awesome write-up for this game but the formatting didn’t work, post came out blank and I went from fired up to mad as hell so I am going to be much more blunt and to the point in this one.
Hopefully everyone had as much fun as I did yesterday. It was great to the see the info I have is reliable and continually winning. I nailed that San Fran game and had it the entire way which is why I made it the biggest play of the season. Most of you won with Washington but I ended up with a push at the end of the day. After a day like that I am very excited to get back into it and with this game tonight I am even more fired up to continue the winning streak. I rarely ever see the public more one sided on an under then I have tonight. What shocks me even more is this is a Monday night game. Let’s get this straight right now because I see it posted on here every single day. The consensus you see on Covers scoreboard is NOT how much money is bet on games, it is how many people have picked each side in the FREE CONTESTS. Now this might give you an idea of who is picking who, but it relates absolutely nothing in regards to the books and the actual public consensus. Sportsbooks don’t want the side with the most people on it to lose; they want the side with the most money to lose. If we look at the consensus on Covers along with about 8 other consensus websites we see anywhere from 54-60% backing the over. However the truth is its nearly 2.4:1 on the under in regards to money. From the wagers I processed today along with four other tellers and all bets throughout the week, it has been nearly 50/50 betting volume but the money has been 70/30 in favor of the under. Now considering the line has been 44 -110 for both sides THE ENTIRE WEEK it is telling you the book is just fine accepting the action on the under at 44. Now what more people don’t know is 44 is in ways a key number for totals in the NFL as a 21-21 score anytime this game gets you a winning ticket. Everyone is saying the clock is going to be moving to quick to score that many points. Not only is the clock going to be moving quickly, the offenses are going to be moving at quite a busy pace as well. Tonight’s game has the 21st and 30th ranked defense going against a very capable offense (Tennessee) and an offense that is talented playing behind their entire city (Jacksonville). You have got to be joking if you’re telling me this one is not going to get to 21-21. It’s going to 7-7 through the first quarter, 14-14 at the half. 21-17 at the end of the third quarter and then 28-17 with about 9:00 to go in the fourth quarter. The reason I say this is because rarely do you see a push on back to back primetime games especially in the NFL. Last night’s game was played on the 3’s and 7’s, tonight’s game is going to be played on the 4’s and 11’s which bodes well for this number of 44 too putting the likely finishing total at 45 or 48 or 52 (28-17 or 28-20 or 28-24). Either way this one is sailing well over the total.
$550/$500 OVER 44