For Sunday Sept 26th....
These are the games Im on, including my first 4 unit NFL play since last October...
1. Atlanta +4 (1.5 units)
2. Dallas ML +120 (4 units)
3. Rams +3.5 (1.5 units)
4. Eagles -2.5 (2 units)
5. Oak / AZ over 39.5 (2 units)
GL all
Dallas is both a big "gut" play and I also have them favored by 3 in the game with my numbers.
Its a perfect spot for them - and a perfect spot to have an inflated line because of 2 weeks performance. Everyone is looking for a reason to bet against the Cowboys - and everyone betting Houston here thinks they know a secret that no one else knows - but the line is out of whack.
We will see.
Short story - the line - at 3.5 is too much. Cross the 3 down to 2.5, and Im off of it, but 3.5 just too much here.
dallas is due..........hate to say it! god, dallas is great ain't it? you either love them or hate them. sad but true, i'll be pulling for them this weekend.
gl to all...
Dallas is due for another lost......sorry to break the news. They are going into a bye after the Texan's game and should regroup to make a run. But Dallas going to 0-3...chase if you will.
Short story - the line - at 3.5 is too much. Cross the 3 down to 2.5, and Im off of it, but 3.5 just too much here.
Fair enough.
Where do you draw the line between capping the x's and o's and taking advantage of the best line? For instance, let's say you love x team. You think they are in a great spot. You think they match up perfectly with their opponent. They are home and motivated to play etc etc. BUT your line(say -7) and the books are identical(-7). Now you have a team y that is on the road, flying across country, and not in the best spot BUT you have them +7 and the books set the line at +4. Will you strictly go with the line value squad(y) or would you take a shot with the team you like from situational capping(team x)?
Do you get what I'm trying to ask? I'm not sure if I'm explaining it great.
Fair enough.
Where do you draw the line between capping the x's and o's and taking advantage of the best line? For instance, let's say you love x team. You think they are in a great spot. You think they match up perfectly with their opponent. They are home and motivated to play etc etc. BUT your line(say -7) and the books are identical(-7). Now you have a team y that is on the road, flying across country, and not in the best spot BUT you have them +7 and the books set the line at +4. Will you strictly go with the line value squad(y) or would you take a shot with the team you like from situational capping(team x)?
Do you get what I'm trying to ask? I'm not sure if I'm explaining it great.
For me, I come up with a gut line - a 2 minute thought process that puts a line where I think the RESULT will land, NOT predicting the betting line. Then I run numbers and come up with a statistics line.
I mash them together - depending on what is working lately - and what time of the season it is (late means more stats) - and come up with a line.
This Dallas bet is a lot gut. How high could a stats line be on this game? How high could you realistically and possibly set this line? Dallas -3? So this is not a line play, or a stats play.....
To continue the thought further.....
Im not betting these games as "must win" games - Im not betting my rent money on this weeks games etc.....
This is a very long term approach for me.
When you take a team because you feel you are getting an extra 3.5 points - that 3.5 points will only come in to play about 10-15% of the time. So Im looking to win one extra game in about 10 of these types of plays - Im not looking for the Rams to win this week - Im looking for the Rams to win one extra of these in the next 10 or so.
Long term - slim margins - but profitable. Not the standard approach of most posters here looking for picks (not meant as an insult, just not the recreational gamblers approach of "pick of the day")
Established in 1995,
Atlanta
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