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***GWarner27's Pre-Season NFL Thread***

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Posted: #1
2007-08: 34-36-3 48.6% -4.211
2008-09: 25-39-1 39.1% -19.329
2009-10: 8-9 47.1% -0.576

All input is appreciated, and will answer any questions if I'm way off from what you think.

Season Win Totals:
NE 10
NYJ 12.5
MIA 7.5
BUF 6.5
BAL 9
PIT 8
CIN 9
CLE 4.5
IND 12
JAX 8.5 (seems high but easy schedule)
TEN 9
HOU 9.5
KC 7
DEN 6
SD 10
OAK 6.5
NYG 9
WAS 8.5
PHI 7
DAL 9
GB 9
MIN 9
DET 4.5
CHI 7.5
ATL 10.5
CAR 7
NO 11
TB 7
SEA 7
SF 8
ARI 7
StL 6
 
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Week 1 Line guesses:
NO -9.5 (w/o Favre), -5.5 (w/Favre)
TB -4.5
BUF +2.5
NE -6
NYG -10
CHI -4.5
PIT +2
TEN -8.5
JAX -4
HOU +2.5
StL +3.5
PHI +1.5
SEA -3
WAS +4
NYJ -7.5
KC +4.5

interests:
TB -3
JAX -2.5
SEA +3
NYJ -3
 
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Posted: #3
Of the teams I was looking at, you are spot on.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27:

Week 1 Line guesses:
NO -9.5 (w/o Favre), -5.5 (w/Favre)
TB -4.5
BUF +2.5
NE -6
NYG -10
CHI -4.5
PIT +2
TEN -8.5
JAX -4
HOU +2.5
StL +3.5
PHI +1.5
SEA -3
WAS +4
NYJ -7.5
KC +4.5

interests:
TB -3
JAX -2.5
SEA +3
NYJ -3


Line is -4 now.  I see it sticking there within a half-point.  If Favre doesn't play, I can see -7.5 at the most.  -9.5 is too much.
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

Of the teams I was looking at, you are spot on.


Meaning season win totals. 
 
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Posted: #6
thanks for the posts, HOH


I like that i'm in the realm on pretty much everything except the Jets game, which I'm not a huge fan of them covering big spreads I just think they can score on that Ravens defense and that should give us a different line. I can't imagine Revis missing any regular season games, so maybe his holdout is affecting the number.

As for the season o/u's I'd be interested in:
NYJ o9.5
JAX o7
PHI u8.5

...others like BUF & StL would be on the radar if they weren't so damn bad
 
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Posted: #8

Jets 12.5

I don't see that at all.  I see them as a 9 win team. 

GL

 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by NJLIBettor:

Jets 12.5

I don't see that at all.  I see them as a 9 win team. 

GL



my number is waaaaaay off.

Seems like they have a very manageable schedule, but I may have been drinking the off-season moves kool-aid as I can't forget they're still hiding their signal caller
 
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Posted: #10
no season win totals for me, sticking with the plethora I got for CFB.

adding:
Atlanta -1 (-110) @ Pittsburgh
-Go ahead and beat me Dennis Dixon, I dare you.

good luck
 
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Posted: #11
0-1 -1.10

adding:
New York -1 (-108) vs. Baltimore

good luck
 
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0-2 -2.20

forgot to make a new thread so i'll throw this here...

adding:
Indianapolis -4 (-105) vs. New York
Can't ignore the QB advantage along with the home crowd, I also think this is a huge overreaction to week one. While some teams are better than I thought they were, I think the Giants were in a great place to succeed and the Colts walked into the lion's den in Houston last week. I don't like the Giants running game and I don't like their rush defense so I think we'll see quite a few points and hopefully the home team gets more than the visitors.

good luck
 
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Posted: #13
1-2 YTD

adding:
San Francisco +5 (+100) vs. New Orleans
Don't love the Niners here, but it's time for them to respond to a bad first week. I'll admit that I'm a doubter of the Saints, but I think we would have seen a great effort from SF on Monday Night Football and it will be light years better after the blowout loss last week. I think they'll be scoring 6s not kicking 3s when they get in the red zone tonight

good luck
 
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Posted: #14
2-2 YTD

adding:
Dallas ML (+120) @ Houston
One team's desperate while the other is in a new place sitting as the hunted instead of being the hunter. Think the Dallas defense will play well today, and the crowd should be nearly 50-50 so I don't think the HFA is that important.

good luck
 
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Posted: #15
3-3 YTD

adding:
New York -3.5 (-105) vs. Chicago

good luck
 
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4-3 YTD

adding:
Houston -3 (+106) vs. New York
Wanted to get this in before it's announced that Andre Johnson is playing, because I have some odd expectation that he will. Basically this bet was made because the Giants weakness is stopping the run, which Houston does fairly well. On the other side, Houston's weakness is stopping the pass, which New York has looked awful doing in recent weeks. While I did take the G-men in their last game, they were terrible and got lucky facing a disinterested Bears team. New York won't get lucky this week...

good luck
 
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Posted: #17
4-4 YTD

adding:
San Francisco -3 (-115) vs. Philadelphia
It's about time for the Niners to get a W, especially because they're not out of the race. They get a banged up Philly team at home with a quarterback who looked awful throwing in the wind. Candlestick is always windy, and the Niners should be able to keep this low scoring they just need to mix Gore with some good passing to keep ahead of the chains.

good luck
 
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Posted: #18
philly
 
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4-5 YTD

adding:
Cleveland-Pittsburgh UNDER 38 (-110)
Watched every start of Colt McCoy's career at UT, but never thought he'd have success as a pro. He was a great scrambler, which he can't be in the NFL, and I think the Steelers will tee off on him all day. Lots of conservative play-calling will headline the game, and I'm not sure Pittsburgh will want to lay the wood to a bad team in the division. Also expect Big Ben to be rusty, as he should be.

good luck
 
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Vereen
 
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Vereen

...so pissed the Steelers were throwing with under 2 minutes remaining when Cleveland had no timeouts remaining. Fucking ridiculous if you ask me...

adding:
Tennessee -2.5 (-114) @ Jacksonville
-Not a believer in the Jacksonville HFA, and I think this is a game Tennessee needs to win to get into the playoffs.

good luck
 
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Posted: #22
5-5 YTD

adding:
Minnesota ML (+130) @ Green Bay
-GB is too banged up and this is where the Vikes season takes off. Inability to run will really hurt the Pack here
 
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adding:
Cleveland +13 (-115) @ New Orleans
-Love this Browns defense and I think the line is inflated after last week's blowout. Hope Payton Hillis can get some big runs to take pressure of my boy McCoy
 
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Posted: #24
GL GW 
 
 
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PP


6-6 YTD

adding:
St. Louis -2 (-104) vs. Carolina
-I'll be a square, but this line should be closer to a touchdown. Love the improvements on the Rams defense, and the home team should be angry about blowing last week's win in Tampa while the visitors are content that they won't finish 0-16.

leans:
PIT ML

good luck
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