New Orleans +4.5, +5.5, +6 and ML
(average price about +200ish)
My first read
on this game was that it just looked like too many points to me. Dogs
have covered 6 of the last 8 Super Bowls including 3 times as +7, +7
and +6 in which the fav won SU by 3 or 4 points. When I can get these
prices on a game that I think should be IND -3 and can turn 3, 4 and
6 into win/push numbers it is hard to lay off. Teams are never as
good or bad as they looked in their previous game, New Orleans looked
bad and many say were given a gift, Manning took apart the #1 D, so
IMO we get an inflated pointspread.
^^^^^That was my first
read. Then I started reading, starting talking, started listening and
one thing became shockingly clear. Almost no one (apart from diehard
Saints fans, people just looking to make a splash by going against
the crowd, or those douches in life that know nothing about football
but act like they do during Super Bowl week) actually think that the
Saints will win this game straight up. Most people who have followed
or bet on football this year all think Indy wins the game. Even
people taking the points with New Orleans (like myself originally)
are primarily doing so because "it is too many points" and
key numbers like 3 and 4 are win numbers. I have never seen so many
people feel so sure that a 4.5 favorite is going to win a football
game. 80%+ of the talking heads and so called experts on
espn/si/yahoo/fox/cbs/etc, etc, etc are predicting a Colts win.
Brandon Lang, the big time poker players who have publicly dropped
"millions" on the Colts, heck even Tony Dungy has said "it
won't be close". I dare anyone to objectively read the last 5 or
6 pages on this board and count how many people are laying huge
amounts on what they feel is a sure LOCK, the Colts ML. We have GOM,
GOY, POY, How does this not cash, I'm betting my 401K, etc, etc, etc
all on the Colts ML. Why are so many people on the Colts? Well I
think #1 is because of Peyton Manning, and #2 is because they HAVE to
win this game. This team tanked at a chance at a perfect season to
win this game. They HAVE to win this game.
I think the two
factors I mentioned above are also being felt by the Colts: How can
we lose? Everyone is expecting us to win. New Orleans backed in and
we have the greatest QB of all time. The Colts have developed an aura
around them with Peyton Manning and a sense that no matter the score
or situation he will lead them to victory and won't be stopped. This
feeling is felt by just about everyone that watches football and is
reinforced by the fresh image in our minds of how he shredded the #1
defense in his last game. I believe this feeling has led the Colts to
feeling overconfident, it sure as hell has their backers feeling
overconfident. I don't think Manning, himself will be feeling
overconfident but there are 52 other players and a coaching staff
that may have let their guard down just a bit this week after hearing
and knowing and seeing just how great #18 is. This leads to my 2nd
point, pressure. While it may seem contradictory to say argue that a
team may be overconfident and feeling pressure at the same time, I
believe it is the case. The Colts are in one of those situations in
sports or in life when you are a big favorite or expected to get
it done vs a weaker opponent or
a challenge you know you should pass. The game or event starts off
and you know that eventually you will pull it out, but as time wears
on and your opponent hangs around the pressure of the entire
situation begins to become evident, you start to panic, your opponent
becomes more confident, and eventually before you know it you are
staring at a defeat or failure. You were overconfident, not fully
prepared and when the unexpected “true” pressure began to sink
in, you choked. The overconfidence hid the immense pressure of the
situation. I know I could throw in some great analogies there and
that one was terrible but I couldn't think of any at the moment.
I
really think the Saints have nothing to lose here, their big game was
last game. The pressure was all on them to get to the SB in their own
building in front of their own fans , to represent the city of New
Orleans on the grand stage, and it showed, they were really tight and
even Brees looked like the pressure was getting to him. They are
significant underdogs here and have nothing to lose like many of the
dogs that have covered the Super Bowl in recent years. Last year the
pressure was on the Steelers as it was win or the season would be a
bust, they played scared and nearly lost the game to a team with
nothing to lose. Same thing with the Pats the year before, the
pressure was all on them or the season was a bust, they played scared
and lost. This year the pressure is 110% on the Colts because they
gave up a perfect season for this game so they HAVE to win. I know
New Orleans started 13-0 but would the season really be considered a
bust if they lost this game? I'd say no. Indy? Yep. Probably a
colossal failure given the way it played out.
's!! 
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