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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Super Bowl XLIV Top 10 Props
tooez send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.ag |
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#51
Posted: 2/2/2010 6:46:32 PM
Smokin: Wow that's a lot of props! The only one I'm on in that bunch is #5.  GL on the rest man.
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#52
Posted: 2/2/2010 6:52:10 PM

Tooez,

Where did u get these props from? Especially interested in the Bush and Thomas rushing attempts over at -115

Cheers,

Iron

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#53
Posted: 2/2/2010 6:59:58 PM
Iron, sportsbooks.com. Some of the juice has changed now but I created this thread like 2 hours after the props opened up and that's what they were.
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#54
Posted: 2/2/2010 7:03:02 PM

Reggie Bush attempts is now over 4.5 -135.

Pierre Thomas is now over 12.5 -125. Wow 

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#55
Posted: 2/2/2010 7:03:32 PM
Cheers Tooez.
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#56
Posted: 2/2/2010 8:35:22 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Gold_Rush:

i wish i could bet on that!!!

me, too (re: the Archie Manning prop)... why in God's name would any book offer that prop?  it is not only a sure thing... but it does not depend at all on which team is winning, and it will go over easily...

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#57
Posted: 2/3/2010 6:17:24 AM

Peyton will throw a touchdown in the 2nd Q (-125)

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#58
Posted: 2/3/2010 9:04:00 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by tooez:

Smokin: Wow that's a lot of props! The only one I'm on in that bunch is #5.  GL on the rest man.

I am actually very confident on about 90% of them. Especially the Garcon and Collie props. I also think the QB's in this matchup will be tossing quite regularly. I would not be taking any props having to do with running in this game. These teams know that through the air is there bread and butter and it has been this way the whole season thus far. Why would you change your style when both teams have been very successful through the air? Think about that!

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#59
Posted: 2/3/2010 10:10:20 AM

love the over on wayne receiving yds.  FGs are going to be a big part of this game with a lot of movement between 20's and stalling in red zone w/ very little punting hence over the 3 fgs easily. 

2 others i love 

over 10.5 1st qtr

longest fg over 42.5 yds

 

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#60
Posted: 2/3/2010 12:43:50 PM

smokin: Appreciate your insight on why you like your props. As I have stated, I think the only way Saints win is to keep Manning and co. off the field. Their not going to do that by passing all the time. Also, colts know their against the #1 offense in the league, so they will want long drives as well by running the ball.

Splooge: At first I really liked Wayne over receiving yards too but I feel I've found more value in others. I do however really like that over 10.5 in the 1st quarter. That's a lot better then my initial lean of "will there be a score in the first 5 minutes?" Thanks

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#61
Posted: 2/3/2010 12:56:04 PM
good thread
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#62
Posted: 2/3/2010 1:09:26 PM

Like the thread.  Everyone keep this in mind for the tv shots of Archie.  These are LIVE shots only.  If the colts score a TD and they tape a shot of Archie celebrating, then show the clip 5 seconds later, that does not qualify.  Typically the only live shots come between snaps when there is not much action going on.  BTW, I have seen this prop climb to 4 recently, 2.5 seemed like good value and now I am not so sure.

However, there is good news.  The best prop IMO is mentioning the phrase "Hurricane Katrina" at 2. 

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#63
Posted: 2/3/2010 4:38:58 PM
Play the Indy ML and under on the total sacks3.5
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#64
Posted: 2/3/2010 4:49:41 PM

Flashman:  thanks for clearing that up. Archie has to be shown in a "live" shot. To be honest I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in the broadcast booth at some point during the game.  That would sail the number over!

THD: They predicted on NFL Live yesterday that Saints would get 0 sacks and Colts would get 2. Even if Saints get 1 that still wins. Withouth Freeny too that's a solid bet.

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#65
Posted: 2/3/2010 6:50:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Michfan15:

Peyton will throw a touchdown in the 2nd Q (-125)

probably right before half. It seems to me that there have been a lot of huge scoring second quarters in the bowl OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD. I think that Redskin barrage came in the second quarter some 20 years ago?

Either way, like the bet.

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#66
Posted: 2/3/2010 6:54:31 PM

I looked back at the Wayne prop from a lot of angles to hammer it. I really liked it before I looked at the Colts and Wayne in BIG GAMES (playoff or big season games i.e. patriots). I came away thinking that Manning goes much more to Clark in this game. I at first thought they would leave Wayne in single coverage but I think he gets his normal double and the "other guys " must beat us is the idea.

I was going to hammer that one and now am going to pass, just fyi, for what it is worth.

Crash

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#67
Posted: 2/3/2010 10:17:17 PM

tooez how about this one, "OVERTIME". That should be this year's hot ticket that has never happened in any Super Bowl. It's due.

 with all your plays.

 

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#68
Posted: 2/4/2010 11:11:20 AM

Tooez- here you go...

What Commercial will be highest rated according to USA Today’s annual Ad meter?

Budweiser…5/8

Go. Daddy….8/1

Career Building…8/1

Coca-Cola….7/1

Family First….12/1

Doritos…..2/1

Other…..13/5

 

Last year Doritos won as a 7/1 dog or something.  Go. Daddy could do something crazy and isn’t bad at 8/1.  Coca-cola ads never really impress anyone I feel like, just usually some thing with the polar bear or something.  Doritos odds aren’t good enough, plus I don’t think they’ll repeat.  Budweiser could pull something hilarious, the too light, too heavy campaign was pretty good, but bad odds.  Other at almost 3/1 seems like the best choice here.  I’ve done some research, the following companies have ads in the superbowl (i.e. who you get by betting Other):  Audi, boost mobile, bridgestone, cars.com, Denny’s, Emerald Nuts, Dockers, Dr. Pepper/Snapple, E-Trade, EA, Honda, Hyundai, Intel, Kia, KGB, Snickers, Monster, Motorola, Motorola, Monster, Qualcomm, Telefora, TruTV, Unilever, universal pictures, Viacom- paramount pictures, vizio, Volkswagon,Yum-Taco Bell. 

That’s a shitload of solid companies and a bunch of them have a solid chance to win. Snickers, Taco-bell, E-trade, all capable of pulling quality commercials.  All you have to worry about is Budweiser and Doritos.  If they pull some extremely funny garbage it might be hard to beat, but thers also the chance Bud or Doritos could flop which should lead to an easy win.  Play the numbers, bet Other and take the +260.        

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#69
Posted: 2/4/2010 11:14:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:

probably right before half. It seems to me that there have been a lot of huge scoring second quarters in the bowl OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD. I think that Redskin barrage came in the second quarter some 20 years ago?

Either way, like the bet.

 

Yup...also a colts drive ending the first and starting the second would likely end in $$

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#70
Posted: 2/4/2010 5:42:10 PM

Crash: As stated I too originally loved the Wayne yards then decided not to play it. Think I found better ones to play.

5time: I played that Overtime prop in the Vikes/Saints game at +1200   However, there's no way I would do that in this game.  GL to you as well, let us know if you find any others you like.

Michfan:  GL with that prop, looks like some others agree with you in your thread.

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#71
Posted: 2/6/2010 2:08:44 PM

What's up guys, leaving for Vegas tonight so I'm posting all my plays right now. Only one more day until the Big Dance!!! 

As stated on page 2, I'm already on:

1. Will there ever be a tie after 0-0? Yes -115

2. Pierre Thomas total rushing attempts: Over 11.5 -115 (I'd still play it at 12.5)

3. Joseph Addai longest rush from scrimmage: Over 12.5 yards -115

4. Pierre Garcon total receptions: Over 4.5 -115.

Also Adding:

5. Saint's total rushing yards: Over 100.5 -115.

All of these are for 1 unit each. My biggest play will be tonight when I arrive in Vegas: 10 units Colts ML

 GL tomorrow everyone!!

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#72
Posted: 2/6/2010 2:20:18 PM
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#73
Posted: 2/6/2010 7:54:02 PM

Andarmac...how are you my man?

 

I like that prop.

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#74
Posted: 2/9/2010 10:16:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by smokin376:

I have already locked in these Props as I feel the ball will be tossed around quite frequently in this game and at a high completion percentage:
 
1. Austin Collie Receptions Over 4 -125
2. Austin Collie Over 50.5 Yards -115
3. Drew Brees Completions Over 24.5 -135
4. Peyton Manning Completions Over 25 -130
5. Pierre Garcon Receptions Over 4.5 -140
6. Pierre Garcon Over 60.5 Yards -120
7. Reggie Bush Rushing + Receiving Yards Over 53.5 -135 
8. First Score Of The Game Will Be FG or Safety +190
9. Will Either Team Score 3 Unanswered Times - NO +145
10. Largest Lead At Any Time Under 16.5 Pts. +100
11. Marquis Colston Completions Over 4.5 -145
 
Good luck with everyones picks and GO SAINTS!

Check that out!..WOW! I have never hit so many plays at one time or during such a big game. The game played out exactly as I stated. The ball will get thrown around at a high completeion % but it would be played in between the 20's and it would not make an over. What a day! 

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#75
Posted: 2/9/2010 10:17:11 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by tooez:

Smokin: Wow that's a lot of props! The only one I'm on in that bunch is #5.  GL on the rest man.

Hit every 1 except 1 of them!

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