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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: MNF Angle to consider
Swoop send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 11/30/2009 1:01:34 PM
Pats 3 losses this year - 

NYJ - 9-3 Pats at Half; Jets win 16-9 (13-0 Jets 2nd Half)
Colts - 24-14 Pats at Half; Colts win 35-34 (Colts 21-10 2nd Half)
Broncos - 17-7 Pats at Half; Broncos win 23-20 (Broncos 13-0 2nd Half & OT)



Some notable Saints games - 

17-6  Panthers at halftime; 24-3 Saints 2nd half (30-20 win)
14-14 tie Rams at halftime; 14-9 Saints 2nd half (28-23 win)
24-10 Miami at halftime; 36-10 Saints 2nd half (46-34 win)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If the Saints get into trouble, it's usually early in the game, but they've shown they are able to come back in the 2nd half to win games...

If the Patriots lose, it's because they struggle in the 2nd half and blow their early lead...

Conclusion, I'm playing the Pats 1st half  - +1/2 and depending on how things look, will consider playing the Saints in the 2nd half  

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#2
Posted: 11/30/2009 1:11:43 PM
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#3
Posted: 11/30/2009 1:14:05 PM
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#4
Posted: 11/30/2009 1:15:45 PM
I see it differently...if the Pats do lead by halftime, expect them to put the hammer down in the 2nd half, especially after that Indy's debacle.  Plus it's always nice for the house to get back their money in the 2nd half since many people will play it off this angle, and after what transpired in the Indy game.  Of course this happens only if NE leads at halftime by at least a TD or more.

BOL
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#5
Posted: 11/30/2009 1:17:25 PM
Hmm...
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#6
Posted: 11/30/2009 1:19:19 PM
Simply put, this year the Pats are a great 1st half team.  And the Saints are a great 2nd half team.  
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#7
Posted: 11/30/2009 1:20:04 PM
Here is another angle to consider...so far for the past 5 weeks or so, away teams have covered on SNF and MNF.  I think Betcrimes1984 kept track of this and posted the number last week prior to the SNF game.

Initially, when the line first came out, I was all over NO but with the movement of the line and the away trend seems to be the "over" trend of last year so just a small play on the away team until halftime for me.

BOL
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#8
Posted: 11/30/2009 1:25:13 PM
After seeing the line go from 3- 1.5 and the same thing happened in the indy game call me crazy but i like the number and the patriots hang in there and win this one by 4 31-27. I dont see NO going undefeated this season and Bellichick shows the country why he still is the best coach!
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#9
Posted: 11/30/2009 1:58:22 PM
Good points.
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#10
Posted: 11/30/2009 2:02:46 PM

This is simply a trend there nothing to make it any more likely to happen again tonight.......Good thought but yeah

 

Red just hit 12 times on the roulette wheel black has to hit now right?

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#11
Posted: 11/30/2009 2:07:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Wakko4Flacco:

This is simply a trend there nothing to make it any more likely to happen again tonight.......Good thought but yeah

 

Red just hit 12 times on the roulette wheel black has to hit now right?


ROULETTE?    Who is saying that?  

I'm saying some teams play better in certain situations.  And this year, it seems the Pats start well and then fade.  And the Saints have proven if they come out slow, they have been able to make adjustments at the half to bring on big comebacks  
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#12
Posted: 11/30/2009 2:19:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by richardtonsj:

Here is another angle to consider...so far for the past 5 weeks or so, away teams have covered on SNF and MNF.  I think Betcrimes1984 kept track of this and posted the number last week prior to the SNF game.
 



Interesting.  I've noticed this season that if the underdog covers the Sunday night game, the favorite generally covers the Monday night game, and vice versa.  The record is 9-1 ATS so far, and 10-1 if you had the Patriots covering against the Colts two weeks ago, although technically it was a push.  There was no SNF on October 1.

GLTA

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#13
Posted: 11/30/2009 2:22:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Swoop:


ROULETTE?    Who is saying that?  

I'm saying some teams play better in certain situations.  And this year, it seems the Pats start well and then fade.  And the Saints have proven if they come out slow, they have been able to make adjustments at the half to bring on big comebacks  

Its just a trend... go look at the other games and see how the 1st and 2nd halfs ended up for both teams... you will see over time theres no difference in how a team does in the 1H or 2H

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#14
Posted: 11/30/2009 2:52:48 PM
It's not a trend.  It's a recent observation.  

If I said the Pats have lost the lead in 3 straight road games vs conference opponents after being up by 6 or more coming off a home SU win, that would be a trend.  And I wouldn't ever consider 3 games a trend.  
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#15
Posted: 11/30/2009 2:57:02 PM
Some teams get stronger as the game goes on, and some lose steam.  I'll be playing the first half Pats with that in mind.  Call it whatever you want...
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#16
Posted: 11/30/2009 2:57:21 PM
GL to all on whatever side you play.  
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#17
Posted: 11/30/2009 3:01:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Wakko4Flacco:

This is simply a trend there nothing to make it any more likely to happen again tonight.......Good thought but yeah

 

Red just hit 12 times on the roulette wheel black has to hit now right?

You shouldn't have much to say after last night's debacle with BAL pick for game 2H.
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#18
Posted: 11/30/2009 3:05:16 PM
i m totaly with u on this one swoop 
iwas considerring the same play for the same reasons, hope thing turn out like history has shown us
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#19
Posted: 11/30/2009 3:14:35 PM
There's like a million trends.  Like this team wins on fieldturf more, this team wins on Mondays, this team wins more after a loss, this team wins more after a deflating loss, this team wins more when the 1st play is a run, this team wins more when favored by 3 or less, etc, etc......I think trends just make the plays more complicated than it should be.  Just watch games, and you can decide who's the better team.  With this in mind, I'm going with New Orleans -1.5
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#20
Posted: 11/30/2009 3:17:51 PM
Interesting.  I've noticed this season that if the underdog covers the Sunday night game, the favorite generally covers the Monday night game, and vice versa.  The record is 9-1 ATS so far, and 10-1 if you had the Patriots covering against the Colts two weeks ago, although technically it was a push.  There was no SNF on October 1.

GLTA


Technically, Ravens covered last night and the game did go under if you're basing your numbers on the early lines.  I usually go by the Cal Nevada's parlay cards and leave it to the public's betting to change the lines.

BOL


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#21
Posted: 11/30/2009 3:26:06 PM
I like it, Pats 1st half and Saints 2nd half 
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#22
Posted: 11/30/2009 3:29:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vegaslover:

You shouldn't have much to say after last night's debacle with BAL pick for game 2H.

 
I cant disagree with you here but it is quite shocking to see Baltimores offensive line demolished like that all night.... Otherwise they cover
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#23
Posted: 11/30/2009 3:31:16 PM
Really good post man. I think you may be on to something.
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#24
Posted: 11/30/2009 3:35:12 PM

An interesting observation definitely worth noting, but I wouldn't base a play on it. First of all, they weren't playing each other in those gms & there were other factors involved. In a gm like this with the spread what it is, a 1stH side play is a total coinflip IMO. Now the 2ndH might set up for something tasty, but I'm liking a 6.5pt teaser with the Pats & over (Pats +8, over 50) right now for the game. GLA!

 

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#25
Posted: 11/30/2009 3:38:25 PM
I think road underdog is a safe bet in the 1st half usually, especially when the point spread is 3 or less.  The home team has too many emotions running high, and they don't settle down til the 2nd half, while the road team wants to prove something to the world.
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