MrMet's Week #9 With Write-ups (5-1 Last wk)

Had a good week this past weekend, starting to get on my hotstreak. Went 5-1 last week and 8-2-1 over the past two weeks.

NFL Record YTD: 37-30-2 (55.2%)
NFL Straight Wager Record YTD: 29-19-1 (60.4%)

Last Weeks Card:

Straight Wagers: (4-0)
Texans -3
Bears -13
Cowboys -9.5
Vikings +3.5

Teasers (1-1)
Bears -6.5/Cowboys -3 
Giants +7/Broncos +10

Looking at this weeks card, there are alot of good plays that I like. I will start posting my plays with write-ups either later today or tomm.

Kansas City at Jacksonville -6.5

Chiefs

Offense (Key Team Stats)

Total YPG: 30th (251.6)
Points Per Game: 27th (15th)
Passing YPG: 30th (150.3)
Rushing YPG: 21st (101.3(

Offensive Summary:

The Chiefs have been horrendous offensively this season. They havn't put up more than 21 points since week 1 and have struggled to move the ball. The Chiefs are last in the league on 3rd down conversion with only 21% conversion rate. Now that they have suspended LJ I think that number will not get much better. The Chiefs now have Charles running the ball and I don't think he will be able to get going against the Jag's. The Chiefs have only averaged 3.2 yards a carry over their last 3 games and I think big John Henderson will have a great game stopping the run in this one. Now that the Chiefs have suspended LJ, they have one offensive thread- Dwayne Bowe. But, Matt Cassel hasn't done that well, he may not be throwing alot of picks but he only has 994 passing yards and is near the bottom of the league in that stat, When JaMarcus Russell has more passing yards then you there is a problem. The Chiefs Oline hasn't done a good job protecting Cassel either he has been sacking more then any QB this year besides Rodgers. For the Chiefs to succeed in this game they need to protect Cassel and must get some sort of passing game going otherwise the Jag's will simply stack the box and shut down the Chief's running game and force that 21 % conversion rate Chiefs into 3rd and long.

Defense (Key Team Stats)

Total YPG: 30th (383.1)
Passing YPG: 28th (252.1)
Rushing YPG: 26th (131)
Points Per Game: 27th (25.9)

Defensive Summary:

The Chiefs have has two good games on defense this season, The Redskins game and the Raiders game. Some may include the Cowboys game, but their tackling at the end of the game made them look bad. The Chiefs have a horrible Pass defense and a bad run defense. The only way the Chiefs can stay in this game is to shut down MJD. The Chiefs are allowing an average of 4.6 yard a carry on the road this season and this going to be the best back they have faced yet. The goal for the Chiefs must be to shut down the run, if the Jag's get MJD going then that will only help out Garrard in the passing attack against a chiefs secondary that is one of the worst in the league. The Chiefs got an extra week to gameplan for the Jag's and they have to figure out a way to get some penetration on defense. The Chiefs don't have many injureis on defense and they have some talented players int heir front seven that should be playing better then they have been this season.

Jaguars

Offense (Key Team Stats)

Total YPG: 11th (351.7)
Points Per Game: 22nd (19)
Rushing YPG: 8th (135.6)
Passing YPG: 19th (216.1)

Offensive Summary:

The past two games the Jag's havn't played too well. They barely beat St Louis at home and then after a bye week they get destroyed by the Titans. The Jaguars have a great rushing attack and one of the best backs in the legaue. This week they come back home and they will try and run over one of the wors't defensive teams in the league. The Chiefs have a horrible Passing defense so Garrard may also have a great passing day. The Jag's are averaging over 5.4 yards a carry this season and that will help set up 2nd/3rd and short all game. I expect the Jag's to control the clock in this game and will go up by a few scores and put the Chiefs in an uncomfortable position in trying to come back. Garrard has done well passing the ball at home this season, averaging over 300 yards per game at home. Going up against the 28th ranked pass defense will help him out in this one.

Defense (Key Team Stats)

Total YPG: 24th (370.7)
Points Per Game: 25th (25.3)
Passing YPG: 26th (242.4)
Rushing YPG: 25th (128.3)

Defensive Summary:

The past few game's for the Jag's on defense has not been good. They are letting teams score an average of 30.3 points per game over that span. This week they go up against a deflated team who got man-handled two weeks ago at home to the Chargers. The Chiefs now have Jammal Charles as their starting back and he needs to have a respectable day for the Chiefs to move the chains. The Jaguars allowed over 300 rushing yards last week and they looked horrible. The Jaguars come home this week and they need a win after looking horrible last week, what better team to take out your anger on than the Chiefs. The Jag's have allowed teams on average 4.3 yards per carry this season, but the Chiefs only are averaging 3.5 yards per carry rushing. Matt Cassel only has one weapon at his disposal and I expect him to be double covered most of this game. The Chiefs tight end has been a big step down from Gonzo. The Chiefs passing game no longer has that safety valve it used to have and it has shown.

Summary:

At first it seems that the Jaguars should have a better record then they do, but once you look at how the defense has performed for the majority of this season you see why they are only 3-4. The reason i love this play is because of the Jaguars rushing game, the the Jaguars are averaging 5.4 Yards per carry this season which is #2 in the NFL and I expect them to control the ball and have no problem moving the chains. On the other side of the ball the Jag's don't have the greatest defense but the chiefs have a horrible offense. At the end of the day I much rather have the Jag's with MJD at home then the offense with their week offensive line that has allowed way too many sacks this season.

Final Score Prediction: Jaguars 28/Chiefs 16

The Play: Jaguars -6.5

Goggles-Pisano: Thank you

Edit: In summary- the last sentence should read. At the end of the day I much rather have the Jag's with MJD at home then the Chiefs offense with their week offensive line that has allowed way too many sacks this season.

Green Bay -9.5 (Bought hook) at Tampa Bay

Packers

Offense (Key Team Stats)

Total YPG: 9th (372.7)
Points Per Game: 8th (26.7)
Passing YPG: 9th (258.7)
Rushing YPG: 16th (114)

Offensive Summary:

After destroying Cleveland and Detroit the packers got beat by the Vikings last week. This week they get to play another one of the league's weak links. Tampa got an extra week to prepare for this one, and the only way I expect Tampa do have any success on defense is by getting to Rodgers. Green Bay has allowed more sacks than any team in the league. But Tampa is 29th in the league in sacking the QB so that will be a non issue in this one. Aaron Rodgers is having an amazing year thus far. He has thrown 14 td's to only two interceptions. The Tampa defense is 28th in the league and has allowed on average of 29 points per game. The Bucs have allowed over 160 yards on the ground a game so I expect Ryan Grant to have a season's best game on sunday. With the combination of the Pack run game and Aaron Rodgers I don't see any way that this packers team won't put up at least 30 points in this one.

Defense (Key Team Stats)

Total YPG: 4th (283.4)
Passing YPG: 9th (184)
Rushing YPG: 9th (99.4)
Points Per Game: 9th (19.1)

Defensive Summary:

The Packer's have had one of the better defense's in the league this season. They have donea great job against the league's weaker teams this season, and I expect that trend to continue. This defense is going up against a Rookie QB in his first NFL start and I expect them to make it tough on him. The Bucs will try and make Freeman's job easier with the running game, But the Packers are only allowing 3.5 yards per carry this season and are 4th in the NFL in total defense. The Packers have talented DB'S so I expect them to make it difficult on the rookie in this one. The Packers defense got destroyed a week ago, but I don't think that the Buc's will put up a good offensive game at all in this one. 

Bucs

Offense (Key Team Stats)

Total YPG: 28th (272.3)
Points Per Game: 28th (13.7)
Rushing YPG: 24th (98)

Offensive Summary:

Didn't Include the Passing YPG for the Bucs since they have a rookie QB making his first start. Offensively the Bucs need a spark, they are near the bottom of the league in almost every offensive category and havn't recorded a win yet this season. The best part of this offense is Carnell Williams, So I figure that he will get a lot of touches on Sunday to try and take the load off of Freeman. The problem is that the Packers are 4th in total defense and are allowing only 3.5 yards per rush. The Packers will likely shut down the Bucs running game and force Freeman to beat them. The Bucs just have not been able to put up points this season, they have also had issue's at kicker. Nugent has missed alot of FG's so far this year.

Defense (Key Team Stats)

Total YPG: 28th (376.4)
Points Per Game: 30th (29)
Passing YPG: 15th (214)
Rushing YPG: 30th (162.4)

Defensive Summary:

The Bucs have been overall awful on both ends of the field this season. They have yet to win a game and I attribute that to the fact that they are allowing teams to score an average of 29 points per game. This defense will not get a break this week because they go up against an explosive offense with one of the best QB's in the league at the helm. The Bucs need to get some pressure on Rodgers and try to force some turnovers. The Packers have allowed more sacks than any other team this seasona and it is imperative for the Bucs to get some pressure to have any chance at slowing down this packers offense. The Bucs have had a decent pass defense this season, but they have still allowed too many points on them. The goal for the Bucs is to stop the running game and get some pressure on Rodgers. The Bucs are 30th in the league against the rush and must shut that down otherwise that will make it way too easy for Rodgers to slice and dice this defense.

Summary:

Statistically the Packers are a top 10 team in the league, but they are only 4-3 this season. The Packers have a good defense with an explosive offense, I expect them to go into Tampa and dominate them on all aspects. Rodgers will have a great game since he will have a running game that will make his job a lot easier. Tampa has a rookie QB starting and there is no way that the Bucs will be able to match up with the Packers this sunday. I much rather take Rodgers and that Packers defense over Freeman and the Bucs defense.

Final Score Prediction:  Packers 31/Bucs 13

The Play: Packers -9.5

XFactor01- Thanks, BOL to you also .

I have a few other leans I am doing research on. Really like Baltimore -2.5 this week. Will do alot more research on this game tomm and make a decision on it.

Other Leans:

SF -4
Hou/Ind Over 48

Baltimore -2.5 (-115) at Cincinnati

Ravens

Offense (Key Team Stats)

Total YPG: 7th (378.7)
Points Per Game: 4th (28.4)
Passing YPG: 10th (253.9)
Rushing YPG:  10th (124.9)

Offensive Summary:

The Ravens travel to Cincy after beating up on the undefeated broncos last week at home. Before the Denver game the Ravens had lost three in a row. The Bengals are coming off a bye week and had extra time to prepare for this Ravens team. The Ravens offense has done very well this season, they are 4th in total offene in the league. Flacco had a productive game last week against the #1 ranked defense in the NFL, he had an 80% completition rate and this week he goes against the 30th ranked passing defense in the league. The Bengals have given up a lot of yardage this season, but they have held teams out of the end zone, they are 6th in points allowed on defense. But if they keep allowing team a lot of yardage how long will they be able to hold teams to 3? I think that the Ravens will do a good job moving th eball against this Bengals D and will put up touchdowns in this one. Ravens will use Flacco to open up holes for Mcgahee and Rice. I think Flacco is getting a lot better as a QB and will continue to have success against the 30th ranked passing defense. The Ravens are 3rd in the league in 3rd down conversion rate and I think that they will continue to have success on offense and will control the ball in this one.

Defense (Key Team Stats)

Total YPG: 13th (313.7)
Points Per Game: 11th (19.6)
Passing YPG: 19th (226.1)
Rushing YPG: 4th (87.6)

Defensive Summary:

Some say that the Ravens defense is not back. that the Broncos simply did not exploit the holes of the ravens secondary. I think that is partially correct, The ravens defense is not as strong as it used to be. But, I do think that they have fixed their issues in giving up the big plays. The Ravens still have a fierce defense leed by Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, it will not be easy for Carson Palmer to march down the field on sunday. In week 5 the Bengals rushed for 142 yards, I do not think they will go over 100 on sunday. The Bengals had a great rushing game in the last match-up and palmer only had a 58% completition rate and the Bengals put up 17 points. I think that the Ravens offense has improved since week 5 and will be better than they were in week 5. I am giving the advantage to the defense in this second match-up and even though the bengals are home I think Palmer wil struggle to get things done on sunday. The Ravens are holding teams to only 3.5 yards a carry this season and I don't think that Benson will be able to get things started on sunday, one major advantage the Bengals have on this side of the ball is all of their weapon's at reciever. Palmer has 3 quality wide-outs at his disposal.

Bengals

Offense (Key Team Stats)

Total YPG: 13th (345.9)
Points Per Game: 15th (23.3)
Passing YPG: 18th (218.1)
Rushing YPG: 9th (127.7)

Offensive Summary

The Bengals have a lot of close wins this season. Carson Palmer has done a great job this season at the end of games to put up TD"s to put his team ahead. The Bengals have had a great rushing game this season, which has made things great for Carson Palmer in his passing attack. The Bengals have a lot of playmakers on offense and will look to expose some of the holes in the ravens come sunday. The Bengals ran all over the Ravens last matchup and I expect them to try and do that again on sunday. Except I don't think they will be able to run well in this one. Carson Palmer is going to have to have a great game passing the ball for the Bengals to win this one. I expect the Ravens to shut down the Benson and will force Palmer into 2nd/3rd and long. The Bengals will be looking to 85 a lot in this game. The Ravens have had an issue this season in giving up the big play, the Bengals will look to exploit the holes in the ravens secondary.

Defense (Key Team Stats)

Total YPG: 21st (341.3)
Points Per Game: 6th (18.3)
Passing YPG: 30th (253.3)
Rushing YPG: 5th (88)

Defensive Summary:

The Bengals are top 10 in the league under certain defensive categories and are in the bottom 10 under others. This week they go up against a ravens team that has changed to a passing first team. The Bengals are 30th in the league in passing defense and they must slow down the Ravens passing offense. The Bengals have allowed a lot of yardage this season but they also have kept teams out of the endzone. The Bengals have been building their defense and this is the best defensive unit they have had in years. The Ravens are averaging 4.6 yards per carry so far this season and the Bengals must make sure and slow that down as well.

Summary:

Overall I think that the Ravens will continue to get their season back on track. The Bengals are no push over team anymore and they have a lot of good players in place to make a playoff run. But I think that the Ravens are the better team, even though they may be without Ngata on sunday I expect the Ravens to win this one. The Bengals had a great rushing attack in their last match-up and still only put up 17 points. The Ravens are 4th in the league in total offense and I think they will control the ball and win this game.

Final Score Prediction: Ravens 24/Bengals 17

The Play: Ravens -2.5

Love the GB play.  I just finished writing about a  heavy lean I have on them and after reading your analysis, they have many of the same points.

Jacksonville caught my eye as well, and I agree it's a good play...I just hate betting on them.

Also like the HOU/INDY OVER.

Good luck.  Congrats on your last 2 weeks!

Snoopaloop- Yeah GB rolls on sunday. Yeah I am going back and forth on the Ind/Hou over. I have watched both teams shortcut's from last week and analyzed the stats and I think it goes over but still not 100% sold on it yet. Thanks, best of luck to you this week .

midnight_toker- Thank you, yeah I think the Jag's will run all over the Chiefs this weekend

Adding 7 pt teaser:

Jaguars pk/Packers -3

Updated Card:

Straight Wagers:

Jaguars -6.5

Packers -10

Ravens -2.5

Teasers:

Jaguars pk/Packers -3

GREAT writeups bro. ARod should eat up the tbay D. love ur plays and BOL this week!

AARON RODGERS -10  

Orangecrush-Thank you, best of luck to you as well .

alecboyh-

Islandstyle- Thank you .

excellent...never miss your threads...great write ups like the plays...GL

WilliamMunny- Thank you, Best of luck to you this weekend .

XFactor101- Sounds good, BOL .

Cyrax- Yeah I think GB wins this game easily on sunday, BOL .

I like everything but the Jax's line looks just too easy.  I am all over the KC once the line hits 7.5