Posted:
#1
"Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 6's edition of the SUCKER
BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop! For
those of you who are unfamiliar
with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public
seems to be heavily favoring one side. Typically there are 3 or 4
choices each week. From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as
the SUCKER BET. Last week was another outright winner for the SUCKER BET bringing our season tally to 3-3 ATS. This week I'm liking the Dolphins +7 hosting the undefeated Saints. The Dolphins have the 2nd hardest schedule in the NFL and have managed to fly under the radar these past few weeks. They are well rested coming off their bye week and they are coming off 2 SU and ATS victories vs. division rivals the previous 2 weeks. Their players have been enjoying the softest part of the season and will be well rested and well game-planned to take on the Saints. The Dolphins have THE highest 3rd Down Conversion % in the league (56%). They've also converted on all 4 of their 4th down attempts. The Dolphins are going to be able to contain the Saints rushing attack as they allow only 3.4 yards per carry on the ground and a 3rd best 76.4 rushing yards per game. Conversely, no team averages more yards per carry (4.8) than the fish or yards per game (177) on the ground. Dolphins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October. This will be a showdown of Wildcat vs. the Anti-Wildcat offenses. Granted it was 4 years ago, The Dolphins had five sacks and dominated defensively in a 21-6 win over the Saints in Baton Rouge in Week 8 of 2005. Chad Henne has been somewhat impressive so far especially when he threw for 241 and two fourth-quarter touchdowns in leading a 31-27 comeback win over the Jets a couple weeks back. Drew Brees lost all three games against the Dolphins while with San Diego with two touchdown passes, five interceptions and 12 sacks. LB Joey Porter is thought to be ready this week which could be a bonus. Can't confirm this, but I think I read that the Saints are the only team not to be trailing in any game this year? If the Dolphins can get on the baord and run the ball, perhaps the Saints might feel a little uncomfortable. There you have it, Dolphins +7 hosting the Saints. Good Luck to everyone this week and see you next week for WEEK 8's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"0
Saints win big!! I think they'll get the early lead forcing Henne to make plays in passing game which should negate the wildcat and lead to TOs, allowing NO to extend the final margin.
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