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[Pro Football] Topic: Trends & Things week 6 NFL 2009 |
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RobertoFiory |
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#1 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:12:44 PM Hey everyone ...
Week 6 of the NFL is here
This is what will be covered in this thread :
NFC vs AFC
Favorites vs Underdogs
Overs vs Unders
Home Underdogs
Large spreads update
After bye-week trends
Other trends & stuff
Review of last week
Trend Picks update + selection(s)
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NFC vs AFC
Week 1
Miami @ Atlanta - 4 NFC wins SU & ATS
Minnesota - 4 @ Cleveland NFC wins SU & ATS
Week 2
Arizona @ Jacksonville -5 NFC wins SU & ATS
Cincinnati @ Green Bay -9 AFC wins SU & ATS
Tampa Bay @ Buffalo -4 AFC wins SU & ATS
Pittsburgh - 3 @ Chicago NFC wins SU & ATS
Week 3 :
Atlanta @ New England - 4 AFC wins SU/ATS
Indianapolis @ Arizona -3 AFC wins SU/ATS
Kansas City @ Philadelphia - 7.5 NFC wins SU/ATS
New Orleans - 5 @ Buffalo NFC wins SU/ATS
Week 4
NY Giants -9 @ Kansas City NFC wins SU/ATS
Seattle @ Indianapolis -10.5 AFC wins SU/ATS
NY Jets @ New Orleans -7 NFC wins SU/ATS
Dallas - 3 @ Denver AFC wins SU/ATS
Week 5 :
Dallas - 7 @ Kansas City NFC wins SU & AFC wins ATS
Oakland @ NY Giants - 15.5 NFC won SU & ATS
Pittsburgh - 11 @ Detroit AFC won SU & NFC won ATS
Houston @ Arizona - 5.5 NFC won SU & ATS
Jacksonville @ Seattle -1 NFC won SU & ATS
On week 5 we saw the NFC dominate the AFC by going 4-1 ATS validating the continuing trend in favor of the NFC conference .
During the years that the AFC dominated the NFC in interconference play , it was entering this part of the schedule where it had the most success , and if week 5 is any indication it is during these weeks
( 5-10 or so ) where the NFC will prevail the most as well.
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#2 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:12:59 PM
YTD : NFC leads 12-7 ATS ( 63.2 % )
NFC leads 12-7SU
When NFC is favored :
NFC leads 9-4 ATS
When AFC is favored :
AFC is 3-3 ATS
NFC vs AFC 35 - 29 ATS ( 54.69 % ) in 2008-2009
AFC was favored in 35 of these games going
15 - 20 ATS in 2008-2009
NFC was favored in 29 of those games going
15 - 14 ATS in 2008-2009
Week 6 :
St Louis @ Jacksonville - 9.5 ???
Baltimore @ Minnesota - 3 ???
Kansas City @ Washington - 6.5 ???
Philadelphia - 14 @ Oakland ???
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#3 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:18:25 PM
Favorites vs Underdogs :
2009-2010
week 1 : Favs : 8-7-1
week 2 : Favs : 7-9-0
week 3 : Favs : 11-5-0
week 4 : Favs : 10-4-0
week 5 : Favs : 6-8-0
week 6 : ???
YTD : Favs 42-33-1 ( 56 % )
Notes :
This NFL season has a similar look in terms of how favorites got off the gate .
If this trend is to continue , it is in the middle of the schedule where the underdogs will bite back the most .
Lines are getting tigher so be aware of the inevitable Dog comeback .
It's coming
*******************
Favorites vs Underdogs 2008-2009
Week 1 : Favs 10 - 6 ATS
Week 2 : Favs 8 - 5- 2 ATS ( one game postponed )
Week 3 : Favs 10 - 6 ATS
Week 4 : Favs 7 - 6 ATS
Week 5 : Favs 7 - 7 ATS
Week 6 : Favs 6 - 8 ATS
Week 7 : Favs 6 - 8 ATS
Week 8 : Favs 7 - 7 ATS
Week 9 : Favs : 5 - 9 ATS
Week 10 : Favs 6 - 8 ATS
Week 11 : Favs : 8 - 8 ATS
Week 12 : Favs : 10 - 5 - 1 ATS
Week 13 : Favs : 7 - 8 - 1 ATS
Week 14 : Favs : 9 - 7 ATS
Week 15 : Favs : 5 - 10 - 1 ATS
Week 16 : Favs : 5 - 11 ATS
Week 17 : Favs : 10 - 6 ATS
Favs finish 126 - 125 - 5 ( 50.2 % ) ATS
Through the first 5 weeks of play in 2008-2009
Favs were 42-30-2 ( 58.3 % )
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#4 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:20:50 PM
Overs vs Unders
Week 1 : Overs : 8-8-0
Week 2 : Overs : 9-7-0
Week 3 : Overs : 7-9-0
Week 4 : Overs : 8-5-1
Week 5 : Overs : 7-7-0
YTD:
Overs lead 39-36-1 ( 52.0 % )
*********************
Overs vs Unders 2008-2009
Week 1 : Overs 7 - 9 - 0
Week 2 : Overs 7 - 8 - 0 ( one game postponed )
Week 3 Overs 11 - 5 - 0
Week 4 Overs 10 - 2 - 1
Week 5 : Overs 8 - 6 - 0
Week 6 : Overs 4 - 9 - 1
Week 7 : Overs 7 - 6 - 1
Week 8 : Overs 6 - 7 - 1
Week 9 : Overs 5 - 7 - 2
Week 10 : Overs 9 - 5 - 0
Week 11 : Overs 5 - 10 - 1
Week 12 : Overs 11 - 5 - 0
Week 13 : Overs 7 - 9 - 0
Week 14 : Overs 4 - 11 - 1
Week 15 : Overs 6 - 8 - 2
Week 16 : Overs 8 - 7 - 1
Week 17 : Overs 9 - 7
2008-2009 season >>>
Overs prevail 124 - 121 - 11 ( 50.6 % )
Through the first 5 weeks the Overs led the way 43-30-1
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#5 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:22:05 PM
Home Underdogs : 2009-2010
Week 1 : HD : 1-3 ATS
Week 2 : HD : 2-3 ATS
Week 3 : HD : 2-5 ATS
Week 4 : HD : 3-1 ATS
Week 5 : HD : 4-2 ATS
YTD : HD : 12-14-0 ATS ( 46.1% )
HD ( <= 3 ) 5-6 ATS
HD ( between 3.5 & 9.5 ) 5-6 ATS
HD ( >= 10 ) 2-2 ATS
****************
Home Underdogs : 2008-2009
Home underdogs went 32-46-2 ( 41 % )
Through 5 weeks of play HD were 7-16 ATS ( 30.4 % )
*************
Home Underdogs : 2007-2008
Home underdogs went 43-45-1 ATS ( 48.9 % )
Through 3 weeks of play HD were 16-9 ATS ( 64 % )
**************
Since the start of the 2007-2008 NFL season
Home Underdogs are 87-105-3 ATS
Since the start of the 2009-2010 NFL season
Home Underdogs are 44-60-2 ATS
Notes :
Home dogs have not been kind to their backers
since the early weeks of the 2007-2008 season
This has severely challenged the notion that home dogs are generally good bets as a handicapping consideration.
That being said , the last 2 weeks may signal a trend reversal that may be long overdue .
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#6 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:23:17 PM
Large Spreads : 2009-2010
Spreads of 9 or 9.5
YTD : 5-3-0
week 1 : 0-0-0
week 2 : 0-1-0
week 3 : 1-0-0
week 4 : 4-1-0
week 5 : 0-1-0
Spreads of >= 10 < 14
YTD : 5-4-0
week 1 : 1-2-0
week 2 : 1-1-0
week 3 : 1-0-0
week 4 : 1-0-0
week 5 : 1-1-0
Spreads of >= 14
YTD : 3-0-0
week 1 : 1-0-0
week 2 : 0-0-0
week 3 : 0-0-0
week 4 : 0-0-0
week 5 : 2-0-0
Estimated lines for week 6 :
9 or 9.5 >>> Jacksonville, New England , NY Jets
10 to 13.5 >>> Green Bay
14 or over >>> Pittsburgh , Philadelphia
Overall Doudle digit favorites are 8-4 ATS . This is in sharp contrast to last year >>> |
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#7 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:24:19 PM
2008-2009 NFL High spreads >>>
Group 1 ( Favorites of 9 & 9.5 points )
week 1 : 1-1 ATS
week 2 : 1-0 ATS
week 3 : 2-0 ATS
week 4 : 2-1 ATS
week 5 : 1-0 ATS
week 6 : 1-1 ATS
week 7 : 2-1 ATS
week 8 : 3-1 ATS
week 9 : 1-1 ATS
week 10 1-2 ATS
week 11 : 0 2 ATS
week 12 : 2-1 ATS
week 13 : 0-0 ATS
Week 14 : 1-1 ATS
Week 15 : 0-1 ATS
Week 16 : 1-0 ATS
Week 17 : 0-0 ATS
Favorites of 9 or 9.5 went 19-13 ATS ( 59.4 % )
**********************
Group 2 ( Favorites of >=10<14 )
week 1 : 0-1 ATS
week 2 : 0-0 ATS
week 3 : 0-3 ATS
week 4 : 0-1 ATS
week 5 : 0-0 ATS
week 6 : 0-2 ATS
week 7 : 1-2 ATS
week 8 : 0-0 ATS
week 9 : 0-1 ATS
week 10 : 1-0 ATS
week 11 : 0-1 ATS
week 12 : 1-0 ATS
week 13 : 2-0 ATS
week 14 : 1-1 ATS
week 15 : 0-0 ATS
week 16 : 0-0 ATS
week 17 : 2-2 ATS
Favorites between 10 & 13.5 went 8-14 ATS ( 36.4 % )
**********************
Group 3 ( Favorites of 14 or more points )
week 1 : 0-1
week 2 : 0-0
week 3 : 0-0
week 4 : 0-0
week 5 : 0-1
week 6 : 0-0
week 7 :0-0
week 8 : 0-1
week 9 : 0-0
week 10 : 0-1
week 11 : 0-1
week 12 : 0-0
week 13 : 0-0
week 14 : 2-0
week 15 : 1-1
week 16 : 0-0
week 17 : 0-1
Favorites of >= 14 finished 3 - 7 ATS ( 30 % )
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#8 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:26:57 PM
After Bye Trend >>>
Results : 2008-2009 NFL season
Teams coming off their bye week
16 Favorites ( 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS )
16 Underdogs ( 4-11-1 SU & 8-8 ATS )
HD : 3-3-1 SU & 4-3 ATS
HF : 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS
RD : 1-8 SU & 4-5 ATS
RF : 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS
Favorites won 12 games SU & ATS ( 75.00 % )
Favorites won 2 games SU & lost ATS ( 12.5 % )
Favorites Lost 2 games SU & ATS ( 12.5 % )
Underdogs Lost 8 games SU & ATS ( 50.00 % )
Underdogs lost 3 games SU & won ATS ( 18.75 % )
Underdogs won 4 games SU & ATS ( 25.00 % )
Underdogs tied 1 game SU & won ATS ( 6.25 % )
Notes : Teams coming off their bye-week that were favored did quite well during the 2008-2009 NFL season proving they deserve to be laying the chalk and rewarding their backers.
Road Favorites benefited from the week off winning and covering every game ! ( 6-0 SU & ATS )
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This is the result for teams coming off their Bye weeks for the 2007-2008 NFL season :
18 Favorites
14 Underdogs
14 of the teams were underdogs ( + 3.5 , 9, 3, 7, 4.5 , 3, 2.5 , 4.5 , 2, 9, 9.5 , 9.5 , 1.5, 10.5 )
18 of the teams were favorites ( - 3.5 , 3.5 , 2.5 , 3, 3, 2. 5 , 1 , 3, 2, 2.5, 16, 4, 4.5 , 4.5 , 10, 3, 7.5, 4 )
In bold are the spreads that were higher than 3 on both sides ( 9 on the underdog side & 10 of them on the favorites side )
So, how did the 14 Dogs perform coming off their byes :
Underdogs lost 8 games SU & ATS ( 57 % )
Underdogs won 6 games SU & ATS ( 43 % )
Underdogs lost 0 games SU & covered the spread ( 0 % )
So, how did the 18 favorites perform coming off their byes :
Favorites won 13 games SU & ATS ( 72.2 % )
Favorites won 1 game SU & Lost ATS ( 5.6 % )
Favorites lost 4 games SU & ATS ( 22.2 % )
Notes :
Only 1 out of those 32 teams ( during the 2008-2009 season ) either didn't cover when winning SU or covered when losing SU
Significant , since out of those 32 spreads , 19 of them were higher than 3 ...
Teams that came off their bye-week and were favored rewarded their backers during the 2007-2008 NFL season by covering a high percentage of their games
( 13 out of 18 ...72.2 % of the games in this category ! )
If this looks familiar , it should when you put together the 2007-2008 & 2008-2009 seasons , this is what we have :
Teams that are favored when coming off a bye-week are rock solid since the start of the 2008-2009 NFL season
25-9 ATS ( 73.5 % )
Not including TY
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#9 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:27:36 PM
One more year of stats to back this up ...from my earlier Trends & Things threads :
the performance of all the teams coming off their bye week during the 2006-2007 season >>>
There were of course 32 teams.
Byes took place between weeks 3 & 9
Week 4 was the first week where teams played a post-bye game
Week 10 was the last week where teams played a post-bye game
16 of the teams were set a favorites
16 of the teams were set as underdogs
The spreads for the favs : -10, 7, 5.5, 6, 3, 4.5, 3, 8, 7.5, 5.5, 16, 1, 3, 3.5, 10, 9 ( 12 of them higher than 3 )
The average spread for the favorites >>> - 6.4
The spread for the dogs : +1, 1, 3.5, 7, 13, 4.5, 6, 6.5, 1, 16, 9.5, 5, 13, 3, 6.5, 10.5
The average spread for the underdogs >>> + 6.7
Results : ( 16 favs / 16 dogs )
Overall teams coming off a bye won 19 games & lost 13 SU
Favorites : ( 16 total )
Favorites won 11 games SU & ATS ( 68.75 % )
Favorites won 1 game SU & lost ATS ( 6.25 % )
Favorites lost 4 games SU & ATS ( 25.00 % )
Underdogs : ( 16 total )
Underdogs lost 8 games SU & ATS ( 50.00% )
Underdogs lost 1 game SU & won ATS ( 6.25 % )
Underdogs won 7 games SU & ATS ( 43.75 % )
The dogs that won outright overcame spreads of + 6 , + 6.5 , + 5 , + 13 , + 3, + 3, + 13
The favs that lost outright blew spreads of - 3, - 4.5, - 7.5, - 1
Notes : Once again , we see the Favorites winning and covering at a high percentage with 11 out of 16 favs covering the chalk for a
68.75 % winning !
If backing the Underdog when coming off a bye week , it proved worthwhile to take them straight up ( ML ) to win the game as nearly half of the games played by these dogs were won outright !
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#10 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:28:42 PM
Teams coming off their bye week last 3 seasons
A total of 96 games ( 3x 32 )
Favorites : ( 50 total )
Favorites won 36 games SU & won ATS ( 72.00 % )
Favorites won 4 games SU & lost ATS ( 8.00 % )
Favorites lost 10 games SU & ATS ( 20.00 % )
Underdogs : ( 46 total )
Underdogs lost 24 games SU & lost ATS ( 52.17 % )
Underdogs lost 4 games SU & won ATS ( 8.70 % )
Underdogs won 17 games SU & ATS ( 36.96 % )
Underdogs tied 1 game SU & won ATS ( 2.17 % )
Notes :
Having now tracked 3 full seasons , this trend merits a very close look for the upcoming 2009-2010 season
Favorites covered their spreads at a very high rate making them a good bet laying the points ( 72.00 % winners )
As for the Underdogs , the best bet on them proved to be a ML bet as a high 36.96 % of them won their games outright .
Compare this with taking the points worrying that the dogs would lose , but cover the spread ( 8.70 % )
The average spread for the Underdogs was + 6.7 in 2006 &
+ 5.96 in 2007-2008 combined
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#11 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:30:07 PM
I'm loving the favorite after bye week trend, couldnt sleep tonight so did some more digging that solidifies your trend! 
05-06 was very similar to 08-09...check it out >>>
16 Favorites ( 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS )
16 Underdogs ( 2-14 SU & 8-7-1 ATS )
HD : 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS
HF : 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS
RD : 2-10 SU & 6-5-1 ATS
RF : 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS
Favorites won 12 games SU & ATS ( 75.00 % )
Favorites won 2 games SU & lost ATS ( 12.5 % )
Favorites Lost 2 games SU & ATS ( 12.5 % )
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#12 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:32:29 PM
Week 5 marked the first time teams were coming off a bye in the 2009-2020 FL season :
Results >>>
Arizona , Carolina , Atlanta , Philadelphia
Favored teams : 2-1 ATS ( 67 % ) ( 3-0 SU )
Arizona won SU & ATS
Philadelphia won SU & ATS
Carolina won SU & lost ATS
Underdog teams 1-0 ATS ( 1-0 SU )
Atlanta won SU & ATS
Week 6 >>>
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#13 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:33:09 PM
| Week 2 |
None |
| Week 3 |
None |
| Week 4 |
Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia |
| Week 5 |
Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego |
| Week 6 |
Dallas, Indianapolis, Miami, San Francisco |
| Week 7 |
Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, Seattle, Tennessee |
| Week 8 |
Cincinnati, Kansas City, New England, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington |
| Week 9 |
Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis |
| Week 10 |
Houston, New York Giants |
| Week 11 |
None | Weekly Bye schedule of all NFL teams
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#14 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:33:51 PM
A look ahead to the matchups involving the 32 NFL teams that are coming off their bye weeks >>>
Week 5 :
Houston @ Arizona - 5.5 W ATS
Atlanta + 2.5 @ San Francisco W ATS
Washington @ Carolina - 4 L ATS
Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia - 15.5 W ATS
3 favorites / 1 underdog
********************
Week 6 :
Chicago + 3.5 @ Atlanta ( SNF )
Detroit @ Green Bay - 13.5
NYG @ New Orleans - 3.5
Denver @ San Diego - 3.5 ( MNF )
3 favorites / 1 underdog
*******************
Week 7 :
Atlanta @ Dallas
Indianapolis @ St Louis
New Orleans @ Miami
San Francisco @ Houston
*******************
Week 8 :
Denver @ Baltimore
Denver @ Baltimore
St Louis @ Detroit
Jacksonville @ Tenn
Seattle @ Dallas
Jac @ Tennessee
*****************
Week 9 :
Bal @ Cincinnati
Kansas City @ Jac
Miami @ New England
Pittsburgh @ Denver ( MNF )
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
Washington @ Atlanta
******************
Week 10 :
Buffalo @ Tennessee
Baltimore @ Cleveland ( MNF )
Detroit @ Minnesota
Jac @ NY Jets
KC @ Oakland
New Orleans @ St Louis
******************
Week 11 :
Tennessee @ Houston ( MNF )
Atlanta @ NY Giants
___________________
21 of these teams coming off their bye week will be playing @ home while the remaining 11 will be playing on the road .
5 of the 32 will be playing a primetime game .
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#15 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:35:25 PM
Prime-time games 2008-2009
( games that took place at any other time than Sunday 1:00 pm or Sunday 4:00 pm Eastern time ...)
I will later update the new year ...
Games that took place either on Thursday , Saturday , or Monday >>>
Week 1 :
Thu : Fav / Under
Mon : Fav / Over
Fav / Over
Week 2 :
Mon : Dog / Over
Week 3 :
Mon : Fav / Over
Week 4 :
Mon : Dog / Over
Week 5 :
Mon : Dog / Over
Week 6 :
Mon : Dog / Over
Week 7
Mon : Fav / push
Week 8 :
Mon : Fav / Over
Week 9 :
Mon : Dog / Under
Week 10 :
Thu : Dog / Over
Mon : Dog / Over
Week 11 :
Thu : Dog / Over
Mon : Dog / Over
Week 12 :
Thu : Fav / Over
Mon : Fav / Over
Week 13 :
Thu : Fav / Over
Fav / Under
Fav / Over
Mon : Fav / Under
Week 14
Thu : Fav / Push
Mon : Fav / Over
Week 15
Thu : Push / Over
Mon : Fav / Push
Week 16
Thu : Fav / Over
Sat : Dog / Over
Mon : Dog / Under
Week 17
no games
Results :
Thursdays : Favs 7-2-1 ( 77.8 % )
Thursdays : Overs 7-2-1 ( 77.8 % )
------------
Saturdays : Dogs 1-0-0
Saturdays : Overs 1-0-0
------------
Mondays : Favs 9-8-0
Mondays : Overs 12-3-2 ( 80 % ! )
Between them :
Favorites went 16-11-1 ( 59.2 % )
Overs went 20-5-3 ( 80 % )
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#16 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:36:20 PM
Sunday night games :
Week 1 : Dog / Under
Week 2 : Dog / Under
Week 3 : Fav / Under
Week 4 : Dog / Over
Week 5 : Dog / Over
Week 6 : Fav / Under
Week 7 : Dog / Under
Week 8 : Dog / Over
Week 9 : Dog / Under
Week 10 : Dog / Over
Week 11 : Fav / Under
Week 12 : Dog / Under
Week 13 : Fav / Over
Week 14 : Fav / Under
Week 15 : Fav / Under
Week 16 : Fav / Over
Week 17 : Fav / Over
Dogs went 9-8-0
Unders went 10-7-0
Finally , all games played on Thu , Sat , Sun night , or Mon :
Favorites go 24 - 20 - 1 ( 54.5 % )
Overs go 27 - 15 - 3 ( 64.3 % )
Notes :
Overs started on a tear on Monday night football games going
8-0-1
If you thought it was a good idea to fade the overs at that point because the Unders were " due " you would have lost some more as the overs finished 4-3-1
Overall, the Overs hit at very high rate crushing the " fade the Public bettors " going an amazing 12-3-2 for the year on Monday night football !
Despite unders hitting early and often during Sunday night games , the Overs finsihed on a 5-0 run for the year ~!
Thanksgiving weekend triggered a serious run by the Favorites
as they swept the entire weekend going 5-0 ATS ( 3 favorites covered Thanksgiving day , 1 on Sunday night , and one on Monday night )
The incredible run continued in week 14 as the favorites swept the board again going 3-0 ATS ( Thu , Sun night , and Monday )
Week 15 , the run continued going 2-0-1 ATS .
Finally, the run ended with another Favorite on Thu night in
week 16
All in all , Favorites streaked to an 11-0-1 ATS run during this span on prime-time games .
Another trend that continued is the one for Favorites covering on Thanksgiving day as not only they covered all 3 games in the 2008-2009 season , but also swept the board both in the 2007-2008 season , and the 2006-2007 season .
This amounts to Favorites being a perfect 9-0 during Thansgiving day last 3 years ! |
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#17 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:36:52 PM
Primetime Game results ( ATS )
Results 2008-2009
Thursdays : Favs 7-2-1 ( 77.8 % )
Thursdays : Overs 7-2-1 ( 77.8 % )
------------
Saturdays : Dogs 1-0-0
Saturdays : Overs 1-0-0
------------
Mondays : Favs 9-8-0
Mondays : Overs 12-3-2 ( 80 % ! )
Between them :
Favorites went 16-11-1 ( 59.2 % )
Overs went 20-5-3 ( 80 % )
Sunday night games :
Dogs went 9-8-0
Unders went 10-7-0
Finally , all primetime games combined ( 2008-2009):
Favorites go 24 - 20 - 1 ( 54.5 % )
Overs go 27 - 15 - 3 ( 64.3 % )
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Results 2007-2008
Thursdays : Favs 7-1 ( 87.5 % )
Thursdays : Overs 5-3
***********
Saturdays : Dogs : 3-0
Saturdays : Unders 2-1
***********
Sundays : Favs : 8-8
Sundays : Overs 11-5 ( 68.7 % )
***********
Mondays : Favs 8-8
Mondays : Unders 10-6 ( 62.5 % )
Between Thu , Sat, Mon >>>
Favs 15-12
Unders 15-12
Finally. all primetime games combined ( 2007-2008 ) :
Favorites go 23-20
Overs go 23-20
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#18 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:37:30 PM
Results 2006-2007
Thursdays : Favs 6-2 ( 75 % )
Thursdays : Unders 5-2-1
**********
Saturdays : Favs 3-0
Saturdays : overs 2-1
*********
Sundays : Dogs 9-6
Sundays : Overs 7-7-1
*********
Mondays : Favs : 9-8-1
Mondays : Unders : 13-5 ( 72.2 % )
Between Thu, Sat, Mon games :
Favs : 18-10-1 ( 64.3 % )
Unders 19-9-1 ( 67.8 % )
Finally, all primetime games combined ( 2006-2007 ) :
Favorites go 24-19-1 ( 55.8 % )
Unders go 26-16-2 ( 61.9 % )
Notes :
Favorites in primetime games are
71-59-2 ATS ( 54.6 % ) during last 3 regular seasons
( 2006-2008 )
This fairly high percentage has been fueled in good part by the Turkey day games going 9-0 ATS in this span .
Overs lead the way during this span ( last 3 seasons ) by going
66-61-5 ( 52 % )
propelled by the 2008-2009 season where 80 % of the games went over the total on Monday night games !
Thursday games have been kind to the backer of the favored team as an amazing 80 % of the games played that day have been won and covered by the favorites ...
2006-2007 ....2007-2008...2008-2009 seasons combined :
Favorites are on a 20-5-1 ATS run !
For those that argue ( generally speaking ) that betting on the favorites and the overs , particularly when it is the only game showing is a sucker's bet , have some monster numbers stating it ain't so !
Over trend continues on MNF going 5-1 already this year
I will update primetime game results at another time . |
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RobertoFiory |
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#19 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:39:50 PM
Trend Selections
Last week trend selections : 4-3
Carolina Lost ,
Philadelphia Won ,
Arizona Won
Cleveland Won ,
Tennessee Lost ,
Cincinnati Won
NY Jets Lost
Updating trends featured that continued :
DALLAS: is now 7-23 ATS Away off BB Unders Won
OAKLAND: is now 3-18 ATS after scoring 17 pts or less 3 straight games WON
INDIANAPOLIS: is now 16-3 ATS off BB wins by 10+ points WON
PHILADELPHIA: is now 17-5 ATS off a bye week
Cincinnati is now 11-0-1 ATS following a matchup against the Browns
The Ravens are now 1-11 ATS at home following a SU loss in October vs. an opponent coming off a SU win.
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#20 Posted: 10/16/2009 8:40:11 PM
Buffalo Bills after playing Miami :
2009 >>
vs Cleveland Lost 3-6 SU & ATS on 10/11/09
vs NYJ on 12/03/09 ...pending
2008 >>
vs NYJ Lost 17-26 SU & lost ATS ( - 5 ) on 11/02/08
@ NYJ Lost 27-31 SU & won ATS ( + 9 ) on 12/14/08
2007 >>
@ Cleveland Lost 0-8 SU & lost ATS ( + 4 )
vs New England Lost 10-56 SU & lost ATS ( + 16 )
2006 >>
vs New York Jets Lost 20-28 SU & lost ATS ( - 6 )
vs Tennessee Lost 29-30 SU & lost ATS ( - 5.5 )
2005 >>
vs New York Jets Won 27-17 SU & won ATS ( -3 )
vs New England Lost 7-35 SU & lost ATS ( + 4.5 )
2004 >>
@ Baltimore Lost 6-20 SU & Lost ATS ( + 4.5 )
vs Cleveland Won 37-17 SU & won ATS ( -3 )
2003 >>
Vs Philadelphia Lost 13-23 SU & lost ATS ( -3 )
@ New England Lost 0-31 SU & lost ATS ( + 9.5 )
2002 >>
vs Detroit Won 24-17 SU & Lost ATS ( -7.5 )
@ New England Lost 17-27 SU & Lost ATS ( + 3.5 )
2001 >>
@ San Francisco Lost 0-35 SU & Lost ATS ( + 8.5 )
vs NY Jets Lost 31-37 SU & Lost ATS ( + 3 )
2000 >>
vs San Diego Won 27-24 SU & Lost ATS ( -10 )
@ Indianapolis Lost 20-44 SU & Lost ATS ( + 7 )
There you have it .
That's a mayor hangover the Bills have.!
Buffalo Bills are 3-16 ATS ( 15.8 % )
& ( 4 - 15 SU ) last 18 games after playing the Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills are 5-24 ATS ( 17.2 % ) when playing a non divisional opp, after playing Miami
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Other trends now updated that cashed :
Home teams coming off a win as an underdog in a game involving two teams that have a winning percentage greater than .750
( Denver - NE )are now 24-4 ATS since 1983
Arizona is 11-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.
Seattle is 11-2 ATS off B2B losses
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#21 Posted: 10/16/2009 9:03:51 PM |
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#22 Posted: 10/16/2009 10:35:02 PM |
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#23 Posted: 10/16/2009 11:09:28 PM |
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#24 Posted: 10/16/2009 11:27:53 PM |
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#25 Posted: 10/17/2009 2:22:14 AM Trend Setters - Week 6
October 14, 2009
By Kevin Rogers
Less than half of the games on the Week 6 NFL card involve divisional matchups, as four teams are on the bye. We'll focus on three divisional games, as well as the non-conference showdown in Minneapolis, and the winless Titans traveling to New England.
Ravens at Vikings (-2 ½, 43 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
Minnesota sits as one of the five unbeaten teams left in the league after their destruction of the 0-5 Rams. The Ravens, meanwhile, have quickly fallen back to earth following consecutive losses to the Patriots and Bengals. There could be an argument made that Baltimore had excellent opportunities to win each game, but the fact is the first three weeks of the season will be wasted if the Ravens lose to the Vikings.
Despite the loss at New England, the Ravens are 7-4 ATS as a road underdog under John Harbaugh. Baltimore has played low-scoring games on the road against the NFC over the years, finishing 'under' the total in six of the last nine.
The Vikings play well at home against division opponents, but when Minnesota faces teams from outside the NFC North, this team struggles to cover the number. Under Brad Childress, the Vikings are 6-10 ATS at home against non-divisional opponents, including a non-cover against the 49ers in Week 3.
Browns at Steelers (-14, 38) - 1:00 PM EST
The Browns were not pretty last week, but Cleveland still picked up its first victory of the season, knocking off Buffalo, 6-3. Derek Anderson did complete only two passes in the win, but at least the Browns are not winless anymore, and they have covered two straight games.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has won two straight after downing Detroit, 28-20. The Steelers are 9-5 ATS under Mike Tomlin as a favorite of at least a touchdown, with the only qualifying game this season coming against the Lions (a point-spread loss).
Eric Mangini is 8-3 ATS in his coaching career against division opponents on the road, as the Browns were blown out at Baltimore back in Week 3. Cleveland is a money-burner when receiving double-digits, going 3-6 ATS its last nine as an underdog of at least 10 points.
Cardinals at Seahawks (-3, 47) - 4:05 PM EST
Seattle rebounded nicely from three straight losses by blowing out Jacksonville last week, 41-0. Meanwhile, Arizona staved off a late rally from Houston, 28-21, to improve to 2-2.
The Cardinals have fared well against the NFC West, compiling a 6-2 ATS mark the last eight against division opponents. Arizona has also been strong on the road off a home win, going 6-3 ATS the last nine, including a 5-2 ATS record as a 'dog.
The Seahawks are a solid 10-3-1 ATS the last 14 as home 'chalk,' but the next trend is very scary. Coming off the shutout of Jacksonville, Seattle is 1-11 ATS since 2002 off a home win of at least 21 points.
Titans at Patriots (-9, 43 ½) - 4:15 PM EST
New England has been excellent coming off a straight-up loss, putting up a 17-3 ATS mark in this spot since 2003. Also, Bill Belichick is nearly automatic in his career as a favorite against an opponent off a SU division loss, going 14-1 ATS.
Tennessee is coming off the embarrassing loss to Indianapolis last Sunday night, falling to 0-5. The Titans are on the bye next week, as Jeff Fisher's club is 6-1 ATS the last seven seasons prior to the bye. Tennessee has also performed well on the road off a home loss, going 6-2 ATS the last eight in that situation.
Bills at Jets (-10, 38) - 4:15 PM EST
New York looks to rebound after dropping its second game, 31-27 at Miami on Monday night. All of the sudden, the Jets have lost two in a row following a 3-0 start. The Bills, meanwhile, have been absent offensively the last three games, scoring 20 points in three losses.
This series has been dominated by the underdog in years' past, with the 'dog putting together a 9-1 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Bills have been the right side at the Meadowlands in this span, going 4-1 ATS, including a cover in a SU loss last season.
The Jets haven't fared well after playing the Dolphins, compiling a 2-8 ATS mark the last 10 following a contest against Miami. New York, though, never has excuses following a short week, going 12-3 ATS after a Monday Night game since 1991.
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