| Author: |
[Pro Football] Topic: WEEK6 6's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop! |
|
demapples |
 View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Bodog.com |
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 1190
Location: Pennsylvania |
#1 Posted: 10/15/2009 8:58:09 AM  "Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 6's edition of the SUCKER
BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop! For
those of you who are unfamiliar
with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public
seems to be heavily favoring one side. Typically there are 3 or 4
choices each week. From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as
the SUCKER BET. For the 1st time this year, last week's SUCKER BET never had a chance as the Colts put a whoppin' on the Titans, bring the season tally to 2-3 ATS. This week the obvious choice would be the Raiders plus 2 touchdowns vs. the Eagles, but I think the line should be closer to 16 as the Raiders are is total disarray. Don't worry, this week's pick will be unpopular as I'm taking the Bills +10 at the Jets. As well as the Jets have started out, I'm still not convinced their offense is anything to get excited about. In the Jets last 3 games, their opponents have gained more yards on the ground and in the air. Cotchery is likely out with a hamstring. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Jets are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. H2H, the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New York and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meeting with the Jets. In looking at pass defenses, these two teams are very comparable and you could make a case for the Bills getting the slight edge. Statistically looking at both teams passing game, again they are both very evenly matched as they both rank toward the middle/bottom of the league. As for running the ball, the Bills average more yards per play and per game. Look for DE Aaron Schobel to have a big game as he has four sacks in his past three games against the Jets. The Jets are on short rest and might be looking ahead to next week's rematch against the Dolphins. Neither of teams are in high gear right now suggesting a lower scoring game that favors the underdog. There you have it, Buffalo +10. Good Luck to everyone this week and see you next week for Week 7's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"
|
|
quote |
|
Blanket |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SPORTSBETTING.COM |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 266
Location: Ontario |
#2 Posted: 10/15/2009 9:08:11 AM
|
|
quote |
|
Creepa |
RSI  |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 563
Location: North Carolina |
#3 Posted: 10/15/2009 9:36:37 AM
|
|
quote |
|
Allbutbroke |
View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 3167
Location: |
#4 Posted: 10/15/2009 9:46:31 AM Why don't both of you stay out of the thread if you don't appreciate it. Many look forward to it just as it is. |
|
quote |
|
bulubulu |
RSI  |
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 2603
Location: United States |
#5 Posted: 10/15/2009 9:51:08 AM  LET'S GO BUFFALO! Hard to imagine the BILLS putting together a string of 3 horrible stinkers in a row.  |
|
quote |
|
rickster2312 |
RSI  |
Captain
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 5354
Location: Nevada |
#6 Posted: 10/15/2009 10:08:55 AM thanks demapples  |
|
quote |
|
wallstreetcappers |
View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Covers Linesmen
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 33513
Location: United States |
#7 Posted: 10/15/2009 10:10:37 AM
|
|
quote |
|
SharpShooter8 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 145
Location: Connecticut |
#8 Posted: 10/15/2009 10:48:21 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers: If you complainers dont like the thread then move along. Making negative comments does not add any value at all.
|
|
quote |
|
SteelRain |
RSI |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 216
Location: United States |
#9 Posted: 10/15/2009 11:11:04 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Blanket: There is no such thing as a "sucker" bet. Its called football.
Dude, people have been sprouting off this line, feeling good about themselves because this has been somewhat of an anomalous year with big favs and public plays hitting at a resounding number. Things WILL balance out and you can rest assured there in fact ARE sucker bets.
|
|
quote |
|
SteelRain |
RSI |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 216
Location: United States |
#10 Posted: 10/15/2009 11:14:18 AM
I like your reasoning. This Buff team is the same one that came within a play of upsetting NE on MNF a few weeks ago. Now people think they cant cover 10 pts at NYJ? What people are betting is the team from the 6-3 CLE loss shows up, but its just as likely that the team from the MNF game shows up.
Im not saying that Im going to bet BUFF, but this is a good value play here because the Jets are overvalued and it IS a division game.
|
|
quote |
|
jlt9889 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Veteran
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 1792
Location: Texas |
#11 Posted: 10/15/2009 11:30:16 AM i love it man good luck |
|
quote |
|
Cyrax |
View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Veteran
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 4989
Location: United States |
#12 Posted: 10/15/2009 11:32:24 AM
|
|
quote |
|
charlielo55 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 949
Location: Texas |
#13 Posted: 10/15/2009 11:41:22 AM Makes sense, think you get this one! |
|
quote |
|
Creepa |
RSI |
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 563
Location: North Carolina |
#14 Posted: 10/15/2009 12:07:36 PM
|
|
quote |
|
DOVJAK |
RSI |
Captain
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 5703
Location: Pennsylvania |
#15 Posted: 10/15/2009 1:16:27 PM |
|
quote |
|
Crowkillers |
RSI |
All-Star
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 10772
Location: Pennsylvania |
#16 Posted: 10/15/2009 1:19:12 PM Are we talking about the same Bills that couldn't score more than 3 points last week against Cleveland? At Home? |
|
quote |
|
tsw |
View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Captain
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 9380
Location: United States |
#17 Posted: 10/15/2009 3:02:05 PM |
|
quote |
|
natural8blue |
RSI  |
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 241
Location: Nevada |
#18 Posted: 10/15/2009 3:12:57 PM
|
|
quote |
|
Wolfgangtuff |
RSI  |
Prospect
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 109
Location: Jamaica |
#19 Posted: 10/15/2009 3:19:20 PM
then having her weave fall out in the 3rd week of dating in which you probably had already bought the cow and now have lost everything, how cruel .
buff+10 sounds solid
|
|
quote |
|
dytide |
View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 250
Location: California |
#20 Posted: 10/15/2009 3:43:02 PM the Raiders were my first choice as well...but just can't pull the trigger..
I like the Bills play....  |
|
quote |
|
opr2nist |
View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 246
Location: Massachusetts |
#21 Posted: 10/16/2009 9:27:25 AM
Buffalo is a good situational play, but the line is not generous. Seems to me the oddsmakers are so preoccupied with preventing the "sharps" from winning that "sharp plays" very often get an unprofitable line.
|
|
quote |
|
Serb89 |
RSI |
Captain
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 7346
Location: Ontario |
#22 Posted: 10/16/2009 9:36:35 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Crowkillers: Are we talking about the same Bills that couldn't score more than 3 points last week against Cleveland? At Home?
|
|
quote |
|
Wizerguy |
View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Captain
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 5676
Location: Florida |
#23 Posted: 10/16/2009 10:06:11 AM Suckerbet is cool with me |
|
quote |
|
kickinA |
View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Captain
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 6254
Location: California |
#24 Posted: 10/16/2009 10:16:59 AM lets get her done dem. |
|
quote |
|
Doxshund |
View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 1045
Location: Nevada |
#25 Posted: 10/16/2009 10:17:55 AM
Tootsie pop couldn't supply an enter key?
|
|
quote |