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[Pro Football] Topic: Line movement for Ravens/Vikings... |
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Brocknroll |
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#1 Posted: 10/15/2009 2:25:20 AM
I understand the argument for both sides of this game. Ravens lost two close games, they won't lose 3 in a row, and Minny hasn't been tested. On the flip side, a 5-0 team is laying a field goal or less, Ravens aren't the same defense as last year, AP will have a banner day, and the 2ndary has been exposed and will be exploited.
I am leaning towards the Ravens but feel like there is a disparity between the consensus noted on Sportsbook.com with 86% favoring the Vikes, with 87% consensus on the Vikes with Covers. The line came out with Minny – 3 even and has since dipped in a few shops to below a field goal, with most shops maintaining a -120 to -125 if you want to back Baltimore. If there is such a large amount of wagering on the Vikings, why is the line not bouncing to 3.5 and back down again?
I have been on the wrong side of a tight spread like this too many times with the most recent sting on the Titans on Sunday. I just feel like there is not a direct correlation with the consensus/spread movement, but am hoping Baltimore figures out a way to slow Farve down, and make some big plays on defense. The Tyree addition will not amount to much since he needs to learn the system, but regardless this is a huge Gut Check for both teams.
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richardtonsj |
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#2 Posted: 10/15/2009 4:13:27 AM |
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Crazy8s2 |
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#3 Posted: 10/15/2009 7:17:52 AM
I understand the argument for both sides of this game. Ravens lost two close games, they won't lose 3 in a row,
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I agree!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Signed: The Tennesse Titans
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Brocknroll |
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#4 Posted: 10/15/2009 11:59:09 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Crazy8s2: Originally Posted by Brocknroll]
I understand the argument for both sides of this game. Ravens lost two close games, they won't lose 3 in a row,
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I agree!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Signed: The Tennesse Titans
Yup...obviously this logic has not worked so far this season which if you play the streaks, Minny will win it's 6th in a row and Balt will lose their 3rd consecutive game. Just feel that Baltimore has a more competitive team and can buck their negative trend in the dome. Not going to be easy, but not impossible. |
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nycfrotter |
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#5 Posted: 10/15/2009 1:16:17 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Brocknroll:
Yup...obviously this logic has not worked so far this season which if you play the streaks, Minny will win it's 6th in a row and Balt will lose their 3rd consecutive game. Just feel that Baltimore has a more competitive team and can buck their negative trend in the dome. Not going to be easy, but not impossible.
First post/ reply
Not true - Ravens did have a losing streak of 3. They lost to Pitt, TN & Indy, not necessarily in that order. Btw, despite that still like them over favre & co. Only decent defense they faced all year was SF
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DOVJAK |
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#6 Posted: 10/15/2009 1:19:58 PM |
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andarmac99 |
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#7 Posted: 10/15/2009 1:33:25 PM
Book it.
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Brocknroll |
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#8 Posted: 10/15/2009 1:45:12 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99: Minnesota is going to lose 3 in a row and the public will have turned on Favre. Book it.
Respect your opinion Andarmac and am glad to see that we are on the same side here. Watched too many Favre meltdowns and have a hard time believing that this is the year that he does not have his typical 3-4 interception blowups. Granted his supporting cast is much better than he has had as of late with the Jets and Packers, but they have been cruising and if Baltimore can keep him pressured and get out to an early lead, the complexion of this game will change quickly.
If Baltimore can't get the job done, there are going to be some serious questions about the strength of this team. |
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pickinvet |
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#9 Posted: 10/15/2009 1:57:29 PM
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#10 Posted: 10/15/2009 5:23:03 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Brocknroll:
Respect your opinion Andarmac and am glad to see that we are on the same side here. Watched too many Favre meltdowns and have a hard time believing that this is the year that he does not have his typical 3-4 interception blowups. Granted his supporting cast is much better than he has had as of late with the Jets and Packers, but they have been cruising and if Baltimore can keep him pressured and get out to an early lead, the complexion of this game will change quickly.
If Baltimore can't get the job done, there are going to be some serious questions about the strength of this team.
What I find interesting is that AP has not rushed over 100 yards in his last few games. We all know how good the Ravens rush D is so its going to be Farve that has to win this..
So far the Vikings have not played a Defense even close to the Ravens level yet. |
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Gold_Rush |
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#11 Posted: 10/15/2009 5:27:07 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by pickinvet: I think this game ends in a tie. Just kidding but who knows on this one, my only action is BAL +16 on a teaser.
im not familar with that 13 pt teaser - and for good reason how many games do you have to play
as much as I like+16 you have to win everything else why not just take Balt + 10 maybe 10.5 if it moves in a 2 game teaser - the chances of you cashing your ticket is much better as you only have to hit 1 other game
Teasers are named that for a reason- but Im sure you know that
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#12 Posted: 10/15/2009 7:32:05 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Gold_Rush:
What I find interesting is that AP has not rushed over 100 yards in his last few games. We all know how good the Ravens rush D is
so its going to be Farve that has to win this..
So far the Vikings have not played a Defense even close to the Ravens level yet.
The scary thing about AP being held in check over the last three games is that at any given time, the guy will torch the field. Hope this is not one of those games. |
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#13 Posted: 10/15/2009 7:39:13 PM
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#14 Posted: 10/16/2009 2:54:00 AM Ravens are totally capable of losing 3 in a row. That is why this game is such a barometer check of each team. Everyone already has there finger on the trigger of blaming the defensive breakdowns to the exit of Rex Ryan and the loss of Scott. A third loss wouldn't be surprising, just a disappointment from a good start to the year, and also a change in perception about the changes/losses in personnel from 2008. The value of a 5-0 team at home by 2.5 or a FG is not great. The wager is on the competitiveness of the Balt team, and the belief that the much improved offense can shine, and that the maligned secondary can regroup. This may not be the game, but at some point it is going to happen. |
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DJTiesto |
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#15 Posted: 10/16/2009 3:57:30 AM Go Minnesota -3 big win and over 45 |
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ilovesdakota |
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#16 Posted: 10/16/2009 4:56:05 AM your question was why dont you see the line move to 3.5 and then back down to three?
over a hundred games you will see 45/45/10 dog favorite tie in the NFL
if they were to move of three you would get the ten percentage points either way...making it 55/45 dog or favorite...enough to beat the 52 percent needed to break even...
if you could blindly bet on and off the 3 in the NFL...you would notneed to handicap at all...just bet a million each time on both sides and you would over a hundred bets bet the house at their own game..
hence they make you lay -125...which negates that advantage..and depending where they opened..would rather get sided then balance the book a few times..and get murdered in the long run....
does that make sense??
regardless of the money...or anyones handicap of the game... |
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topher79 |
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#17 Posted: 10/16/2009 9:31:59 AM |
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#18 Posted: 10/16/2009 1:31:31 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by ilovesdakota: Brocknroll
your question was why dont you see the line move to 3.5 and then back down to three?
over a hundred games you will see 45/45/10 dog favorite tie in the NFL
if they were to move of three you would get the ten percentage points either way...making it 55/45 dog or favorite...enough to beat the 52 percent needed to break even...
if you could blindly bet on and off the 3 in the NFL...you would notneed to handicap at all...just bet a million each time on both sides and you would over a hundred bets bet the house at their own game..
hence they make you lay -125...which negates that advantage..and depending where they opened..would rather get sided then balance the book a few times..and get murdered in the long run....
does that make sense??
regardless of the money...or anyones handicap of the game...
That does make sense Dakota. Thanks for the insight. Lately though it seems that the teams that have the higher price have not been coming through. Makes you think the books are playing off the "Joe Public" plays and raping the squares. |
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#19 Posted: 10/16/2009 1:41:46 PM Those precentages dont mean shit...... that is total number of bets not total money....
Sharps probably layed big money on the ravens... that is the reason... |
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#20 Posted: 10/16/2009 4:03:00 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Brocknroll:
That does make sense Dakota. Thanks for the insight. Lately though it seems that the teams that have the higher price have not been coming through. Makes you think the books are playing off the "Joe Public" plays and raping the squares.
Not true. Squares have done very well so far in the NFL.
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ThrillaInMD |
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#21 Posted: 10/16/2009 4:08:37 PM
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#22 Posted: 10/16/2009 4:19:23 PM
It's Brett Favre people! And a healthy Brett Favre with Adrian Peterson at that!! VIKES WIN
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itz4204me |
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#23 Posted: 10/16/2009 4:30:03 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99: Minnesota is going to lose 3 in a row and the public will have turned on Favre. Book it.
When do you think this 3 game skid will start?
Sunday?
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#24 Posted: 10/16/2009 4:53:09 PM
LAy it!!!
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#25 Posted: 10/18/2009 3:09:34 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by zooker32: Hey morons, I live in Baltimore, and this is not the defense that won the SUper Bowl 8 YEARS ago!! We have no pass rush, and the secondary is TERRIBLE!! On the road, in a dome, against Favre and AP. MISMATCH Numbnuts!! LAy it!!!
Great insight Zooker. I didn't realize any of the pertinent information in your post until you sent it because I am a moron and have Numbnuts. I am going to call my bookie and see if I can switch my bet to Minnesota ASAP. |
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