Messages

MINNESOTA AT ST. LOUIS: We've already seen a few games like this...where one of the league powers is on the road against one of the helpless patsies...and oddsmakers have to figure out where to stick the line. If they post a number in the 7½ to 8½ range, they'll get flooded with teaser players on the favorite. The basic strategy for teasers (crossing both the 3 and the 7 in two-teamers) did extremely well last week, leading several offshore places to change their odds on the option. Books are simply sick and tired of getting crushed with that winning strategy! Vegas and Reno books have done whatever they can to discourage the action too. Even with that discouragement, they STILL want to avoid putting lines in the strike zone. So, that means likes of 9 or higher or going to be more common until the dregs of the league start covering some games. Minnesota is -9½. Sharps aren't involved at that number. They might take a shot on the home dog at +10 or more. Some old school guys take all double digit dogs in this league no questions asked.

DALLAS AT KANSAS CITY: Same story here, with Dallas at -9 in most places because so many books don't want to deal with teasers. I'm seeing numbers at less than 9 at the sportsbooks who have such bad payoffs on teasers that they don't get much action. Sharps generally like Kansas City at this price based on what I'm hearing. They're waiting to see if the public drives the Cowboys up to -10 over the weekend. That could happen with the Pokes in a bounce back spot off a national TV loss. Remember that sharps hardly ever lay points in the NFL, particularly at lines of a TD or more. It's dog or nothing here on the team side. Nothing much has happened with the total yet either. We're getting to the point where game day weather can influence totals in the Midwest cities and further north. Remember that sharps bet Under at the first sign of weather issues.

WASHINGTON AT CAROLINA: Carolina opened -5½, which struck me as very high considering how badly they'd been playing. Sharps agreed, and immediately pounded underdog Washington even though many spent the first month of the season marveling at how bad Jason Campbell was! The line is down to 3½, where it's sat for awhile. Sportsbooks don't want to go down to -3 because they'll invite a ton of Carolina action from people shooting middles. For now, they'll accept being one-sided with Washington bets. Weekend action may influence their thinking. The total has stayed solid at 37½.

TAMPA BAY AT PHILADELPHIA: Scary to think about how high lines might get if the bad teams can't be competitive. This line opened at Tampa Bay -14, and it's already up to -15 on the news that Donovan McNabb is likely to return. We saw this with New England two years ago, and may start to see it a lot. Whenever a good team is favored near a key number...sharps will bet the favorite early to create position for a possible middle later. They don't necessarily like the favorite. But, they know the public loves betting these power teams against helpless opponents. Sharps get in early near the key number...then come back over the top at a better line on game day. Let's say the public keeps betting the Eagles...and the number goes up to 16 or 17 on Sunday. Sharps will buy back most or all of their earlier bets, or even come back over the top stronger on the dog. If the game lands near the number, they win everything. Expect to see more of that on these games near two TD's. And, watch the weather this weekend. Unders will get a look in unfriendly weather particularly with an inexperienced QB playing on the road against a great defense. Note that TB's only TD last week came on a 10-yard drive.

JACKSONVILLE AT SEATTLE: This game has stayed off the board in most places because of the uncertainty at the QB position for the hosts. Seattle has played horribly since Seneca Wallace had to run the show. But, that was against a pretty tough schedule (2nd half in San Francisco, then vs. Chicago and at Indianapolis). The Jacksonville team that showed up the last two weeks will win this one easily. Those were divisional games though (Houston and Tennessee). This is a non-conference game on the other side of the country. Sharps just aren't that interested from what I'm hearing. A bad number on the board would get their attention.

INDIANAPOLIS AT TENNESSEE: Indianapolis is currently at -3½, and we have another game where preferences will probably be determined by whether the game's at 3½ or 3. I'm not sensing the same passion for the home dog though as we're seeing in New England/Denver at the same price range. Denver has impressed, even if they're not as good as their 4-0 straight up record. Tennessee has looked pretty bad the last few weeks. They're 0-4 record is misleading...but this still may be a team that lost its mojo. Peyton Manning has road wins at Miami and Arizona already. I guess I'd say it this way. Sharps are looking for ways to bet Denver, but let enthused about Tennessee.

NY JETS AT MIAMI: This game opened at the Jets -2½...which meant it was either going to rise up to a field goal and cause headaches of the favorite/dog variety, stay put and cause headaches of the teaser variety, or go down to Jets -1 because oddsmakers are tired of the headaches. I'm seeing -1 right now. It will be interesting to see how the money hits this game over the weekend and on Monday afternoon. The Jets are becoming a public team because of their success. Miami with Chad Henne doesn't inspire great confidence in the public, even though they won big against Buffalo last week. Sportsbooks don't want to drive through the 1½ to 2½ window with the Jets because of teasers. If they go to -3, then the world comes in on the home dog plus a field goal. It's going to be fun! If you like the Jets, you might as well lay the -1 now. If you like Miami, see what you can get with teaser or dog action closer to kick off.