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All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

--- MN: important to consider GB has a BYE ---

JZA
buclaoSoCal
LuvParlays
KktdocT
jesron1269
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JZA
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 11:27 AM ET #1

everyone and their mother has mentioned the following:

favre: statement game for him on the big stage / hasn't proven anything this year except for the hail mary / could throw picks

ap: beast / will tear up the GB defence

a.rodgers: no INT's to speak of / may be sacked and hurried / less pressure than favre, at least in terms of media.

gbay o-line and d-line: soft.


NO ONE HAS MENTIONED THAT THE GREEN BAY PACKERS HAVE A BYE NEXT WEEK, WEEK 5!!!!!

***also consider that in the NFC north: Minnesota is 3-0, Bears 3-1, Gbay 2-1...this game shifts the division quite a bit for Gbay, a win and they are right in it, a loss and they are very much behind the game***

IMHO this means that they lay it all on the line, especially in that 2nd half. they have much more motivation to win this game than Minnesota does. Favre has only talked about 'beating his old team' and not about what this means for the NFC north division --- this is a simply a HUGE divisional game and with the Packers on a BYE next week they show up HUGE for this game.

Packers ML +190
Packers +5 (buy the hook)

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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
everyone and their mother has mentioned the following:

favre: statement game for him on the big stage / hasn't proven anything this year except for the hail mary / could throw picks

ap: beast / will tear up the GB defence

a.rodgers: no INT's to speak of / may be sacked and hurried / less pressure than favre, at least in terms of media.

gbay o-line and d-line: soft.


NO ONE HAS MENTIONED THAT THE GREEN BAY PACKERS HAVE A BYE NEXT WEEK, WEEK 5!!!!!

***also consider that in the NFC north: Minnesota is 3-0, Bears 3-1, Gbay 2-1...this game shifts the division quite a bit for Gbay, a win and they are right in it, a loss and they are very much behind the game***

IMHO this means that they lay it all on the line, especially in that 2nd half. they have much more motivation to win this game than Minnesota does. Favre has only talked about 'beating his old team' and not about what this means for the NFC north division --- this is a simply a HUGE divisional game and with the Packers on a BYE next week they show up HUGE for this game.

Packers ML +190
Packers +5 (buy the hook)

 
buclaoSoCal
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 11:32 AM ET #2

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LuvParlays
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 11:48 AM ET #3

NO ONE HAS MENTIONED THAT THE GREEN BAY PACKERS HAVE A BYE NEXT WEEK, WEEK 5!!!!! [/Quote]
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=100543732
 
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NO ONE HAS MENTIONED THAT THE GREEN BAY PACKERS HAVE A BYE NEXT WEEK, WEEK 5!!!!! [/Quote]
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=100543732
 
 
KktdocT
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 11:48 AM ET #4

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JZA
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 11:55 AM ET #5

Quote Originally Posted by LuvParlays:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21?=100543732


this is not a system play for me, although i do like the way those numbers are compiled in favor of my selection tonight.

this play is based on how much GBAY needs it and wants it and for my $, they simply need it and want it more than the VIKES, and I think that GBAY will get it.
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Quote Originally Posted by LuvParlays:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21?=100543732


this is not a system play for me, although i do like the way those numbers are compiled in favor of my selection tonight.

this play is based on how much GBAY needs it and wants it and for my $, they simply need it and want it more than the VIKES, and I think that GBAY will get it.
 
jesron1269
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 12:01 PM ET #6

I got news for you... it makes no difference that Green Bay has a bye next week.  NONE WHAT SO EVER!  Perhaps if they were coming off a bye and had an extra week to prepare for this game I might see your point.

Here are the fact, this is a divisional game in a heated rivalry.  Both teams need this win.  Minnesota needs to win at home because it is never a given that they are going to get a "W" in Lambeau.  Both teams are going to lay it all in the line to win this game, not just Green Bay.  If you are betting with teams that are not going to lay it all on the line to get the "W" that week then I would suggest either betting against them or don't play the game.

Minnesota wins this one.  I think they cover the spread too but I could be wrong.  I have Minnesota -3 so if MIN wins by 4 we both win.  BOL!
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I got news for you... it makes no difference that Green Bay has a bye next week.  NONE WHAT SO EVER!  Perhaps if they were coming off a bye and had an extra week to prepare for this game I might see your point.

Here are the fact, this is a divisional game in a heated rivalry.  Both teams need this win.  Minnesota needs to win at home because it is never a given that they are going to get a "W" in Lambeau.  Both teams are going to lay it all in the line to win this game, not just Green Bay.  If you are betting with teams that are not going to lay it all on the line to get the "W" that week then I would suggest either betting against them or don't play the game.

Minnesota wins this one.  I think they cover the spread too but I could be wrong.  I have Minnesota -3 so if MIN wins by 4 we both win.  BOL!
 
35gators
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 12:06 PM ET #7

u dont need to buy the hook, it allready went to +5. GL myfriend i am with you
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u dont need to buy the hook, it allready went to +5. GL myfriend i am with you
 
JZA
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 12:14 PM ET #8

Quote Originally Posted by jesron1269:

I got news for you... it makes no difference that Green Bay has a bye next week.  NONE WHAT SO EVER!  Perhaps if they were coming off a bye and had an extra week to prepare for this game I might see your point.

Here are the fact, this is a divisional game in a heated rivalry.  Both teams need this win.  Minnesota needs to win at home because it is never a given that they are going to get a "W" in Lambeau.  Both teams are going to lay it all in the line to win this game, not just Green Bay.  If you are betting with teams that are not going to lay it all on the line to get the "W" that week then I would suggest either betting against them or don't play the game.

Minnesota wins this one.  I think they cover the spread too but I could be wrong.  I have Minnesota -3 so if MIN wins by 4 we both win.  BOL!


not saying Minnesota won't lay it all on the line, all I am saying is that I am confident that the Packers will.

obviously its a heated rivalry, big divisional game and Minnesota wants to protect their home-field because they go to Lambeau in a few weeks...at the same time this division changes with the outcome of tonight's game: 3 teams @ 3-1 or 1 team @ 4-0.

the greatest thing of all IMO is public perception of this division: before the season began everyone was on a different team (minnesota the favorite with AP/Favre but are they simply ovverated?...chicago the running/defense minded team that just added a legit QB but will that be enough to contend?...green bay and aaron rodgers with a young team that has now played together for a full season but are they really that good?).......flash forward (great show) a few weeks and public perception is that minnesota is a super bowl contender eventhough they have not faced and beaten any formidible oppenent (last week they didn't cover and should have lost SU, the first 2 weeks were jokes and they still did not impress)...chicago is a bubble team who has won close games against pittsburgh and seattle but does not get any respect...green bay is soft and will get schooled in the trenches)

bottom line is that in a matchup like this you take the points and you take the moneyline. minnestota is like a sports car without the gas, it's all flash and no drive. green bay is like the hybrid car with a full tank, slow and steady wins the race.

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Quote Originally Posted by jesron1269:

I got news for you... it makes no difference that Green Bay has a bye next week.  NONE WHAT SO EVER!  Perhaps if they were coming off a bye and had an extra week to prepare for this game I might see your point.

Here are the fact, this is a divisional game in a heated rivalry.  Both teams need this win.  Minnesota needs to win at home because it is never a given that they are going to get a "W" in Lambeau.  Both teams are going to lay it all in the line to win this game, not just Green Bay.  If you are betting with teams that are not going to lay it all on the line to get the "W" that week then I would suggest either betting against them or don't play the game.

Minnesota wins this one.  I think they cover the spread too but I could be wrong.  I have Minnesota -3 so if MIN wins by 4 we both win.  BOL!


not saying Minnesota won't lay it all on the line, all I am saying is that I am confident that the Packers will.

obviously its a heated rivalry, big divisional game and Minnesota wants to protect their home-field because they go to Lambeau in a few weeks...at the same time this division changes with the outcome of tonight's game: 3 teams @ 3-1 or 1 team @ 4-0.

the greatest thing of all IMO is public perception of this division: before the season began everyone was on a different team (minnesota the favorite with AP/Favre but are they simply ovverated?...chicago the running/defense minded team that just added a legit QB but will that be enough to contend?...green bay and aaron rodgers with a young team that has now played together for a full season but are they really that good?).......flash forward (great show) a few weeks and public perception is that minnesota is a super bowl contender eventhough they have not faced and beaten any formidible oppenent (last week they didn't cover and should have lost SU, the first 2 weeks were jokes and they still did not impress)...chicago is a bubble team who has won close games against pittsburgh and seattle but does not get any respect...green bay is soft and will get schooled in the trenches)

bottom line is that in a matchup like this you take the points and you take the moneyline. minnestota is like a sports car without the gas, it's all flash and no drive. green bay is like the hybrid car with a full tank, slow and steady wins the race.

 
dirtymoney04
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 12:16 PM ET #9

I like the play jza on both as well
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I like the play jza on both as well
 
NONEED4LUCK
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 12:23 PM ET #10

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WillyWonka
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 12:28 PM ET #11

Go Pack
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Go Pack
 
165yds
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 12:33 PM ET #12

Why the hell would you buy the hook?  Less than 1% of football games land on five, it's not a prime number.  Your  throwing your money on meaningless juice when there is no reason too.
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Why the hell would you buy the hook?  Less than 1% of football games land on five, it's not a prime number.  Your  throwing your money on meaningless juice when there is no reason too.
 
Bruuuuce78
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 12:34 PM ET #13

Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

Why the hell would you buy the hook?  Less than 1% of football games land on five, it's not a prime number.  Your  throwing your money on meaningless juice when there is no reason too.

 

I agree with this guy........

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Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

Why the hell would you buy the hook?  Less than 1% of football games land on five, it's not a prime number.  Your  throwing your money on meaningless juice when there is no reason too.

 

I agree with this guy........

 
Dogjimbo
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 12:39 PM ET #14

Quote Originally Posted by Bruuuuce78:

 

I agree with this guy........

Good point 78.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bruuuuce78:

 

I agree with this guy........

Good point 78.
 
MoPinkie
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 12:49 PM ET #15

JZA......the avatar says it all.....having a bye next week means 1 thing only....THEY CAN TRY TO GET HEALTHY.....Packers offensive line will look like a sieve and Ryan Grant prob will finish game on a gurney in the locker room....Favre wants to murder this team more than anyone and youre right...this game puts some distance 4-0 v 2-2 or 3-1 v 3-1.....NOT HAPPENING.....AP GOES OFF AND Vikes score 38+.....41-24 and thats giving Pack a cheap meaningless td in closing minutes
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JZA......the avatar says it all.....having a bye next week means 1 thing only....THEY CAN TRY TO GET HEALTHY.....Packers offensive line will look like a sieve and Ryan Grant prob will finish game on a gurney in the locker room....Favre wants to murder this team more than anyone and youre right...this game puts some distance 4-0 v 2-2 or 3-1 v 3-1.....NOT HAPPENING.....AP GOES OFF AND Vikes score 38+.....41-24 and thats giving Pack a cheap meaningless td in closing minutes
 
jesron1269
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 12:50 PM ET #16

Quote Originally Posted by JZA:



not saying Minnesota won't lay it all on the line, all I am saying is that I am confident that the Packers will.

obviously its a heated rivalry, big divisional game and Minnesota wants to protect their home-field because they go to Lambeau in a few weeks...at the same time this division changes with the outcome of tonight's game: 3 teams @ 3-1 or 1 team @ 4-0.

the greatest thing of all IMO is public perception of this division: before the season began everyone was on a different team (minnesota the favorite with AP/Favre but are they simply ovverated?...chicago the running/defense minded team that just added a legit QB but will that be enough to contend?...green bay and aaron rodgers with a young team that has now played together for a full season but are they really that good?).......flash forward (great show) a few weeks and public perception is that minnesota is a super bowl contender eventhough they have not faced and beaten any formidible oppenent (last week they didn't cover and should have lost SU, the first 2 weeks were jokes and they still did not impress)...chicago is a bubble team who has won close games against pittsburgh and seattle but does not get any respect...green bay is soft and will get schooled in the trenches)

bottom line is that in a matchup like this you take the points and you take the moneyline. minnestota is like a sports car without the gas, it's all flash and no drive. green bay is like the hybrid car with a full tank, slow and steady wins the race.



I guess I didn't know we were pollsters or gamblers.  Is it possible... yes but my only point was that both teams need this win.  I think your comparsion is horrible too as Green Bay finished 8-8 because they are no steady but actually quite combustible.  You never know what you are going to get from that defense from week to week.

The last two weeks Green Bay gave up 31 to CIN and 17 to fricking STL.  How much are they going to give up to MIN who has been averaging 29.3 points per game?
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Quote Originally Posted by JZA:



not saying Minnesota won't lay it all on the line, all I am saying is that I am confident that the Packers will.

obviously its a heated rivalry, big divisional game and Minnesota wants to protect their home-field because they go to Lambeau in a few weeks...at the same time this division changes with the outcome of tonight's game: 3 teams @ 3-1 or 1 team @ 4-0.

the greatest thing of all IMO is public perception of this division: before the season began everyone was on a different team (minnesota the favorite with AP/Favre but are they simply ovverated?...chicago the running/defense minded team that just added a legit QB but will that be enough to contend?...green bay and aaron rodgers with a young team that has now played together for a full season but are they really that good?).......flash forward (great show) a few weeks and public perception is that minnesota is a super bowl contender eventhough they have not faced and beaten any formidible oppenent (last week they didn't cover and should have lost SU, the first 2 weeks were jokes and they still did not impress)...chicago is a bubble team who has won close games against pittsburgh and seattle but does not get any respect...green bay is soft and will get schooled in the trenches)

bottom line is that in a matchup like this you take the points and you take the moneyline. minnestota is like a sports car without the gas, it's all flash and no drive. green bay is like the hybrid car with a full tank, slow and steady wins the race.



I guess I didn't know we were pollsters or gamblers.  Is it possible... yes but my only point was that both teams need this win.  I think your comparsion is horrible too as Green Bay finished 8-8 because they are no steady but actually quite combustible.  You never know what you are going to get from that defense from week to week.

The last two weeks Green Bay gave up 31 to CIN and 17 to fricking STL.  How much are they going to give up to MIN who has been averaging 29.3 points per game?
 
JZA
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 12:56 PM ET #17

Quote Originally Posted by jesron1269:



I guess I didn't know we were pollsters or gamblers.  Is it possible... yes but my only point was that both teams need this win.  I think your comparsion is horrible too as Green Bay finished 8-8 because they are no steady but actually quite combustible.  You never know what you are going to get from that defense from week to week.

The last two weeks Green Bay gave up 31 to CIN and 17 to fricking STL.  How much are they going to give up to MIN who has been averaging 29.3 points per game?


Minnesota gets 20 points (2 TD's..1 Favre 1 AP...2 FG's)
Rodgers throws 3 TD's and the pack win 21-20.
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Quote Originally Posted by jesron1269:



I guess I didn't know we were pollsters or gamblers.  Is it possible... yes but my only point was that both teams need this win.  I think your comparsion is horrible too as Green Bay finished 8-8 because they are no steady but actually quite combustible.  You never know what you are going to get from that defense from week to week.

The last two weeks Green Bay gave up 31 to CIN and 17 to fricking STL.  How much are they going to give up to MIN who has been averaging 29.3 points per game?


Minnesota gets 20 points (2 TD's..1 Favre 1 AP...2 FG's)
Rodgers throws 3 TD's and the pack win 21-20.
 
JZA
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 12:57 PM ET #18

Quote Originally Posted by Bruuuuce78:

 

I agree with this guy........



the hook cost me .10cents...rather take the chance of a push if they lose by 5 than a loss @ +4.5

in any case I am not looked in and will be waiting until game time on my plays. my $ will be on the ML and the points.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bruuuuce78:

 

I agree with this guy........



the hook cost me .10cents...rather take the chance of a push if they lose by 5 than a loss @ +4.5

in any case I am not looked in and will be waiting until game time on my plays. my $ will be on the ML and the points.
 
pack4ever
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 1:00 PM ET #19

With ya JZA!!
Good Luck!!
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With ya JZA!!
Good Luck!!
 
JZA
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 1:01 PM ET #20

Quote Originally Posted by pack4ever:

With ya JZA!!
Good Luck!!



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Quote Originally Posted by pack4ever:

With ya JZA!!
Good Luck!!



 
NeedALock09
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 1:27 PM ET #21

The bye has nothing to do with anything. Everything this week has been Favre Favre Favre.....What about Aaron Rodgers? Does he have nothing to prove? Does he not want to beat his mentior? These 2 are gonna go after each other tonight. Its gonna be big play after big play. This game IMO will be an instant classic. Back and forth with alot of points scored with the winner winning on the final possesion maybe with a fg. Gonna be a good one. Im gonna tease the game myself. Give me Gb +10.5 and Over 39.5.

Bol to all in whatever play you make.
  
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The bye has nothing to do with anything. Everything this week has been Favre Favre Favre.....What about Aaron Rodgers? Does he have nothing to prove? Does he not want to beat his mentior? These 2 are gonna go after each other tonight. Its gonna be big play after big play. This game IMO will be an instant classic. Back and forth with alot of points scored with the winner winning on the final possesion maybe with a fg. Gonna be a good one. Im gonna tease the game myself. Give me Gb +10.5 and Over 39.5.

Bol to all in whatever play you make.
  
 
 
Blue_Magic
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Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 1:28 PM ET #22

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