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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: How long can Brady and the Pats stay at the top?
theclaw
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#1
Posted: 9/6/2009 5:24:33 PM
Here's something a mad-scientist like theclaw dug-up, I like this kind of info as it helps one reach many different conclusions about the game.
 
Let's see what we can uncover here............
 
Let's rank  the QB's in the 43 years of the SB era who've produced the longest spans between 1st SB win and last SB appearance.
 
1. Curt Warner, 1st SB win in 99 season, last SB appearance 2008 season - SPAN OF 10 SEASONS - (3 total SB appearances, 1-2 record in SB game)
 
2. Joe Montana, 1st SB win in 1981 season, last SB appearance in 1989 season - SPAN OF 9 SEASONS - (4 SB appearances, 4-0)
 
3. Roger Stuabach, 1st SB win 1971, last SB appearance 1978 - SPAN OF 8 SEASONS - ( 4 SB's, 2-2).
 
4. Tom Brady, 1st SB win in 2001 , last SB 2007 - SPAN OF 7 SEASONS - (4 SB's, 3-1).
 
5. Terry Bradshaw, 1st SB win 1974, last SB 1979 - SPAN OF 6 SEASONS - ( 4 SB's, 4-0)
 
6. Troy Aikman, 1st SB win 1992, lst SB 1995 - SPAN OF 4 SEASONS - (3 SB's, 3-0)
 
7. Jim Pluket, 1st SB win 1980, last SB 1983 - SPAN OF 4 SEASONS - (2 SB's, 2-0)
 
8. Big Ben, 1st SB win 2005, last SB 2008 - SPAN 4 SEASONS - (2 SB's, 2-0).
 
 
There should be a asterk next to Warners name, he's the only QB that didn't do it with the same team, the only QB to produce a losing record in the SB and of the top 5 QB's he's got the fewest SB appearances.
 
What jumps-off-the-page is that just 5 QB's in 43 years and only 4 with the same team, excluding Warner, could win a SB and then get back 5 years or longer to another SB, wow, only 4 QB's with the same team.
 
This seems to indicate just how short-lived a QB and his team can remain on top.
 
If Brady gets the Patroits to the SB this season he'll tie Montana with a 9 year span for the most of any QB with the same team and give him 5 SB appearances, the most of any QB.
 
And he could surpass that with a SB next season or the year after.
 
Could he do it ? Well of coarse it's possible but the info seems to indicate he's close to the end of the road.
 
The Patroits pass defense is the problem, last season Pats had a 89.8 defensive passer rating (DPR), 23rd in the league.
 
In the 5 seasons the Patroits made the AFC Championship game they had a average DPR of 68.9, in the 4 seasons they failed to make the AFC Championship game they had a 85.5 DPR.
 
Last season the Patroits pass defense was one of just 8 teams to give-up more than 12 yards per completion, and they were the "luckiest" defense in the league, with over 8% of catchable balls being dropped by opposing players, the highest percentage of drops in the league. Will they be that lucky again ??
 
One of the conclusions I've reached having researched the game is that for-the-most-part it's the players that win, more so than the coaches.
 
Once a team loses it's key players or they become older, they lose  the leaders in the clubhouse, the players who knew how to win and could consistently make the "big plays" under pressure in the key moments of the game, once these players can no longer perform at a high level the teams run to SB 's is over.
 
This is exactly what we're now seeing with the Patroits defense.
 
You can replace these key players with another player, maybe even a better player, but it does not mean the results will be the same, it doesn't mean the better player will be able to perform  better under pressure in the key moments of the game  or be a better leader in the clubhouse.
 
The Patroits have been very fortunate over the years as the new players brought in have worked out well, hence all the talk about how you can plug any player into Bill's defense and it'll be a strong defense, history tells me different, history tells me the Pats have been fortunate and this is why the Pats have produced the 4th longest  SPAN OF SEASONS at 7.
 
The Patroits signed 34 year old journeyman cornerback S. Springs,  with his 1 int in 7 starts last season, SB defenses aren't built around cornerbacks like this.
 
This is a stop-gag measure at best and a sign the Patroits are deserate for defensive backs.
 
The key players from the defense are all disappearing, Ty Law, Harrison, Bruschi, and now Seymour.
 
And remember, it was the Patroits defense that let the team down in the SB against the Giants, with just 1 stop and they go into immortallity, they could not deliver.
 
Once their key players were gone or could no longer play at a high level every great coach look mere mortal.
 
 
 
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veronica27
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#2
Posted: 9/7/2009 4:08:51 AM
nice work ! makes ya say hmm
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#3
Posted: 9/7/2009 4:24:54 AM
As long as they let Belicheat get away with his bullshit.
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BostonKen
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#4
Posted: 9/7/2009 4:49:13 AM
" One of the conclusions I've reached having researched the game is that for-the-most-part it's the players that win, more so than the coaches."

I agree, but how many coaches lose games for their teams.
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#5
Posted: 9/7/2009 4:51:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by chillery:

As long as they let Belicheat get away with his bullshit.



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#6
Posted: 9/7/2009 1:58:48 PM
Nice post dude.  Good stuff.  One thing though... Brady and the Pats aren't at the top.  You need to go to the Steel City for that.  That said, we can fast forward to the AFC Championship right now (of course I am though, looking forward to the entire season) because the Steelers and Pats will be there.  It should be a game for the ages.
 
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#7
Posted: 9/7/2009 2:07:05 PM
As long as Brady is healthy they will be at the top. 
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#8
Posted: 9/7/2009 2:19:17 PM
Brady is physically ready, but in my opinion not mentally ready.
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#9
Posted: 9/7/2009 7:35:34 PM
Tough call, but personally I hope they crash and burn!!!
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theclaw
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#10
Posted: 9/7/2009 7:48:36 PM
I'll add this info to that above ..........
 
Here's how long it took each QB to win their 1st SB.............
 
1. Warner --- 2cd season
2. Montana --- 3rd season
3. Staubach --- 3rd season
4. Brady  ------- 2cd season 
 
Wow, didn't take long for this QB's to win their first SB, pretty amazing.
 
This would suggest that if a QB has what it takes to play well under pressure, KNOWS HOW TO WIN, can be a good effective leader, AND CAN DO IT CONSISTENTLY OVER THE YEARS, , it won't take this QB long to win the SB.
 
If a QB is lingering around, year after year, without that SB win, just maybe there's a reason why. 
 
5. Bradshaw --- 5th season
6. Aikmen  ----- 4th season
7. Pluket   ----- 10th season
8. Big Ben ----- 2cd season 
 
Only Jim Plunket who was considered a failure in the NFL before joining the Raiders,  took longer than 5 years to win his first SB.
 
Look who's at number 8, Big Ben, he, just like the top 4, won his first SB very early ,  in his 2cd year....................
 
 is this a good indication he will join the top 4 someday as one of the longest spans to be on top ????
 
5 of the these 7 QB's, excluding Big Ben, went to back-to-back SB's, only Plunket and Warner did not.
 
4 of the 7 QB's were repeat SB Winners, representing 5 of the 8 repeat SB winners in the SB Era, Bradshaw doing it twice.
 
Will Big Ben join them this season as another repeat winner on this list of QB's ???????
 
It's starting to look like Pittsburg's chances for a repeat look pretty damn good, barring injuries to their key players obviously.
 
Let's look at a couple of legends and see how they stack-up.......
 
Brett Favre, won his 1st SB in 6th season, SPAN OF 2 YEARS, between 1st SB win and last SB appereance .
 
Of coarse he goes to the top of the list if he gets there with Minnesota this season, SPAN OF 14 YEARS, if he can do it.
 
That would be a bit errie considering it would be the exact same senario as Warner last season, who went to the top of the list. A new team, and many years inbetween his last SB appearance.
 
And if he loses in the SB, he'd join Warner as the only 2 QB's on the list with losing records in the SB.
 
Can lightning strike twice ?????? In back-to-back years ????
 
Favre's span of 2 years was mostly his fault, as his postseason int's doomed some pretty good Green Bay teams in the playoffs, and he did it time and again.
 
Maybe there's a reason it took him 6 season to win his 1st SB, unlike the QB's on the list of longest spans, and a reason he couldn't get back.
 
Peyton Manning, 9 seasons to win his 1st SB, SPAN OF 1 SEASON.  
 
Peyton still has a few more years to get back, why did it take him so long to win his 1st SB ??
 
Manning has 6 one and down postseason's out of 9. Not very impressive.
 
He's had some of his worst single game  performances according to QB Passer Rating in the postseason, and some of his worst games in a single season was his 1 postseason loss.
 
Both Favre and Manning played onmore than enough good teams  to get to the SB, but could not match these other QB's, maybe there's a reson why, some players understand HOW TO WIN, and some don't. 
 
The info seems to suggest this.
 
Let's look at one last thing that's kind of freakish, not sure there's anything to it, but it's worth mentioning.
 
If you take out Warner, the only QB to make the list with 2 different teams, look at the top 3, they all won their first SB in a year ending in 1.
 
Staubach in 1971
Montana in 1981
Brady in 2001
 
coincidence ??????
 
The only year missing 1991, if we look closely we find Aikmen in 1992  who had a mini-dynasty of his own, just 1 year later.
 
Does this indicate we'll be looking at another great QB emerging in 2011 who'll make the list of longest spans ??? Maybe a year earlier 2010  or a year  later 2012 ??? 
 
Maybe Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco, they'll be in their 3rd season next year ???  Could they emerge in 2010, one year early ??
 
Damn interesting for sure.
 
If history holds and it's 2011 and a QB emerges, and the QB is in his 2cd or 3rd season as the other QB's then that means a QB drafted this season or next.
 
One last thing, the QB with the longest span between SB appearances .................
 
John Elway, 1st SB appearance 1986, last SB appearance 1998, SPAN OF 13 SEASONS.
 
5 SB appearances, 2-3 record in SB game.
 
Went to his 1st SB in his 4th season.
 
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#11
Posted: 9/7/2009 9:29:33 PM
Patriots and the Over -- look very promising early in the season.
 
Are we still using the term Belicheat?  Honestly, anyone using this term loses a ton of respect in my book....embarassing to still use this.
 
How does one judge Tom Brady's mental state?  Let me guess -- he is soft because he is tied to a supermodel?
 
Claw --thanks for the research.
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#12
Posted: 9/7/2009 9:33:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NevadaNightmare:

Tough call, but personally I hope they crash and burn!!!
Yeah, being a Steelers fan I don't like the Patriots at all either.
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theclaw
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#13
Posted: 9/8/2009 12:17:45 PM
I thought it might be interesting to look at some QB's and how long they've been in the NFL, compare these with the QB's on the list above .
 
Of the 8 QB's on the longevity list above just 2 took longer than 4 seasons and only 1 longer than 5 seasons to win their 1st SB.
 
P. Rivers  --- starting his 6th season
T. Romo  --- 6th season
A. Rodgers --- 5th season
V. Young   --- 4th season
J. Cutler    --- 4th season
M. Lienart --- 4th season
 J. Cambell --- 4th season
T. Edwards --- 3rd season
M. Ryan     --- 2cd season
J. Flacco    --- 2cd season 
 
The interesting player here to me is A. Rodgers, there's no way he could of got on the field playing behind Favre in Green Bay. So maybe the 5 seasons is not a good reflection of what he can do when comparing him  to the 8 QB's on the list for longevity.
 
The other players have all had their chances, of coarse Ryan and Flacco  still have a couple more years to do it.
 
Feel free to add some QB's you might think could make a move
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#14
Posted: 9/8/2009 12:31:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by chillery:

As long as they let Belicheat get away with his bullshit.

 

do you watch football???

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theclaw
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#15
Posted: 1/30/2010 9:15:34 PM

Taking a look at the info guys, it looks pretty damn good.

It's pretty clear now that the Pats run to Super Bowls could be over.

Consider the Pats finished 11-5 under their back-up QB in 2008 and just 10-6 under Brady in 2009. Yea, they're headed down.

 

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#16
Posted: 1/2/2013 1:01:54 PM

bump  .. playoff time , brady is here again ..

so are a bunch of rookie qbs trying to break in and defy all odds .. 

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#17
Posted: 1/2/2013 1:06:10 PM
haha the claw is a moron idiot
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#18
Posted: 1/2/2013 1:26:56 PM
bellicheat 
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theclaw
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#19
Posted: 1/2/2013 9:14:54 PM

Ha, ha, yea I give the Pats credit for making the SB last season, although they were extremely fortunate to be there after being out-played by the Ravens by a huge amount in most every area that has a high correlation to winning NFL games,.

In fact, one-of the stat companys that track stats for the NFL came-out with something like, teams that were out-played by such huge margins were something like 1- 350 in NFL Playoff history or whatever it was and that was all-over the internet last season.

Not likely the Pats can be so lucky a 2cd time with that defense ...................................

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#20
Posted: 1/2/2013 9:20:51 PM
The Pats getting to the SB last season now puts Brady in 1st place with a span of 11 seasons from 1st SB win to final SB appearance, and he could possibly add to that if they can shore-up the defense which doesn't seem likely since the big time clutch players have retired the defense has folded in big moments many times.
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#21
Posted: 1/2/2013 9:31:02 PM
I don't know if you fixed the 1st post or not(didn't feel like reading the whole thing), but the Patriots have lost twice to the Giants in the Superbowl. The perfect season attempt in '07 and last year.
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#22
Posted: 1/3/2013 1:24:43 PM

I wasn't bumping this fine piece of work because of the pats .. was thinking more about skins , shawks and colts qbs , all 3 rookies .. could one of these rookies make it to the sb in their rookie year .. if the subject is about brady and the pats ? well , that is just silly .. we all know they not going ... haha 

... enter peyton , how quickly things change from one year to the next .. may never play again .. instead comes back and takes obscure team to the sb .. those are defying odds even greater than if a rookie qb won the sb .. BRONCOS ARE GOING . the tiny fine print at the bottom of the page always reads >> barring significant injs from now to then ..

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#23
Posted: 1/14/2013 7:25:38 PM

okay , I must add now I like the pats to go all the way .. since they dont have to go through den and peyton in den .. that ravens broncos game might have been one of the silliest games ever .. oooh wait .. I forgot about the shawks at falcons game .. that was silly too . lol

soooooooo ? how long can brady stay atop ?  the thing is it helps to have (an all around solid healthy team) great blocking , good d , rbs ,  wes and great coaches . ray lewis ? they didnt deserve that game .. is almost as big of an injustice they advanced past den ..  as last year , was wrong that the pats advanced past the ravens into the sb .. was the ravens game all day .. again same as sf losing to ny because of kyle .. the blame game is always alive and well , esp when it is sooo obvious .

in boxing and tennis we can always blame 1 guy for sure .. no debate there .. ooh , the ref or the manager for throwing in the towel too soon .. lol

the pack losing at sf this year ? (to me) the rookie punt returner turned that whole game giving sf a free 7 pts .. early on is the same as late .. it all blends together to create the eventual final product which is the final score .. the swing .

  how does anyone not catch a kickoff or a punt ? like a guy who can throw bullseyes all day long or guys that can hit free throws all day .. you just should not miss .. like ever .. maybe they should not offer 1q and 2nd q plays or 1st halve plays .. and it might be more on the up and up . just my opinion .. and before i forget >>> ban parlays too ... only single wagers on the game allowed .

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#24
Posted: 1/15/2013 12:04:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BostonKen:

" One of the conclusions I've reached having researched the game is that for-the-most-part it's the players that win, more so than the coaches."

I agree, but how many coaches lose games for their teams.

Bingo... Poor quick decision making, an inability to make adjustments at halftime or in between series. Bad coaches say, "this has worked for us before, let's just keep doing it until it starts working again." (Rex Ryan sticking with Sanchez, Kevin Gilbride's stubborn play calling, Norv Turner waking up in the morning)

Belichick puts his players in the best position to win. Mike Smith requires an absurd amount of talent to succeed. If Bellichick were coaching the Falcons there would not be a question as to who would be favored in these playoffs.

Not a patriot homer btw, I'm a Giants fan. 
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#25
Posted: 1/15/2013 12:19:39 AM
How can they stay on top? 

1. Acquire a "Flying Delorian"

2. Go back to 2004

3. Stay there
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