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[Pro Football] Topic: Homework assignment #3- researching two winners for Thursday night- All input appreciated... |
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tiedup2night |
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#1 Posted: 8/25/2009 4:42:38 PM
2-0 sides for 4.5 units  & 1/2
0-1 totals for -2 units... 
Well i have been putting together homework assignment #3 which focuses on 2 Thursday night games with pretty interesting angles...
The first game i wrote about in another thread, but it concerns the dolphins, who i have been loving since parcells took the reigns..
i like to play trends as well as motivation in the preseason and here
is one game i will be hitting as hard as i can hit a preseason
game.. (3 units)
Listen to this.. Teams off of back to back home wins in the preseason are 34-21-1 ats when taking to the road in preseason since 1983...
NOW... if they are going on the road after a double digit win (which MIAMI is) then they are 20-7 ats..
AND.. if these teams off of double digit wins are dogs, the number becomes 16-4 ats!!!
that's 80%!!!
So i am locking in pick #1-
Miami +3 (i bought the extra 1/2 point to be safe) for 3 units
Now the other game i was interested in researching was the Pats/Skins...
At first glance i loved the skins getting points at home.. sign me up right??
not, so fast... teams in their 2nd home preseason game are just 6-14-2 ats after taking on the previous years' super bowl champ...
uh oh...
and nfc teams in their 2nd of back to back home games are 52-70-5 ats when hosting afc teams...
well, that's an odd trend, but that's just the beginning...
Bill Belichick is 5-2 su and 5-1-1 ats in his last 7 game 3's (preseason)...
He is also 16-1-1 ats in preseason wins as a favorite and MOST IMPORTANTLY
last year the pats were 0-4 preseason su/ats and you see how last year went for the pats............
No way am i backing the home dogs here... in fact i am laying-
2 units on the pats -3 before the line goes higher, as i see the mirage has it at -4 and the hard rock has it at -3.5,,.. they must both have this info too!!
Patriots -3 for 2 units
Good Luck and let's make some money!!
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sphan28 |
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#2 Posted: 8/25/2009 5:21:49 PM nice write on tha trends for tha games.. Miami has been on my radar ever since preseason started that includes Minn..Jets..Raiders and a couple of others teams.. just tha fact that i think their whole team is better than most whole teams.. well i luv tha 2 picks especially Miami gettin tha pts but not really sure bout Pats. as of yet now but gotta like them.. well i'll check in later if i have different other trend differ from ur's and BOL.. |
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richardtonsj |
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#3 Posted: 8/25/2009 9:14:24 PM
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Whodeysb09 |
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#4 Posted: 8/25/2009 9:15:54 PM 
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tiedup2night |
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#5 Posted: 8/25/2009 10:34:49 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by richardtonsj: This is why I come to Covers during football season.
thanks my friends...
fyi- i'll give you a sneak peek at homework assignment #4.. it is a friday game that falls under the same trend as miami..
off of b2b home wins and packing up to travel on the road as a dog..
Green Bay +3 for 3 units...
Good Luck!! (but act surprised when i post it--  )
Miami will be a good test of the system play...
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DeeNvesta |
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#6 Posted: 8/26/2009 9:47:58 AM He is also 16-1-1 ats in preseason wins as a favorite and MOST IMPORTANTLY
last year the pats were 0-4 preseason su/ats and you see how last year went for the pats............
Wouldn't he have been a favorite twice last year in preseason ?
Guess it was only once and he lost. Just trying to make sense
of 16-1-1 ats and 0-4 last year 
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WFC2007 |
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#7 Posted: 8/26/2009 10:39:52 AM With you on a lot of your plays I have a Teaser with both Mia and GB. GL! |
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WFC2007 |
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#8 Posted: 8/26/2009 10:40:47 AM
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3 Team Teaser (ties push) FB7 BK5½ T |
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8/27/09 8:00pm NFL Football 255 Miami Dolphins/Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 28 |
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8/28/09 10:00pm NFL Football 259 Green Bay Packers +10 vs Arizona Cardinals |
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8/28/09 10:00pm NFL Football 259 Green Bay Packers/Arizona Cardinals Over 35 | |
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tiedup2night |
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#9 Posted: 8/26/2009 1:25:29 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by DeeNvesta: He is also 16-1-1 ats in preseason wins as a favorite and MOST IMPORTANTLY
last year the pats were 0-4 preseason su/ats and you see how last year went for the pats............
Wouldn't he have been a favorite twice last year in preseason ?
Guess it was only once and he lost. Just trying to make sense
of 16-1-1 ats and 0-4 last year
none of the games last year qualified for that trend because they did not win the game straight up...
16-1-1 ats in games that they were favored and won straight up.. meaning that they won the game straight up and also covered..
that doesn't include games that they lost straight up.. they were favs last year, but they lost those games straight up anyway.. understand??
this stat is assuring us that we are not in danger of the pats winning by 1, 2, or even pushing at 3.. they either lose the game straight up or cover the line..
in other words.. don't buy the 1/2 point...
does that make better sense of it for ya??
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tiedup2night |
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#10 Posted: 8/26/2009 1:26:21 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by WFC2007: With you on a lot of your plays I have a Teaser with both Mia and GB. GL!
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claybetting |
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#11 Posted: 8/26/2009 1:38:47 PM I'm on the GB and Miami game with ya and I took the Pats 1st Half -2.5. Good luck!!! |
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tiedup2night |
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#12 Posted: 8/26/2009 4:35:27 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by claybetting: I'm on the GB and Miami game with ya and I took the Pats 1st Half -2.5. Good luck!!!
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DeeNvesta |
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#13 Posted: 8/26/2009 11:17:19 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by tiedup2night:
none of the games last year qualified for that trend because they did not win the game straight up...
16-1-1 ats in games that they were favored and won straight up.. meaning that they won the game straight up and also covered..
that doesn't include games that they lost straight up.. they were favs last year, but they lost those games straight up anyway.. understand??
this stat is assuring us that we are not in danger of the pats winning by 1, 2, or even pushing at 3.. they either lose the game straight up or cover the line..
in other words.. don't buy the 1/2 point...
does that make better sense of it for ya??
thanks tiedup2night. I get it 
bol...be on it with you along with
miami 
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IAMSPOLI |
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#14 Posted: 8/26/2009 11:28:36 PM
I will be at the game tomorrow wearing my jersey prouder than ever.
LETS GO DOLPHINS
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DeeNvesta |
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#15 Posted: 8/26/2009 11:30:09 PM another good system that applies to the miami game
back an away team with two or more wins against a home team
with exactly one win 43-19 ats (69%) |
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swensdogg |
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#16 Posted: 8/27/2009 12:07:41 AM I have all that info too. So do most of Marc Lawrence's readers. ALL of those numbers were lifted out of the Preseason Playbook. Nice of you to share though. |
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tiedup2night |
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#17 Posted: 8/27/2009 2:50:02 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by swensdogg: I have all that info too. So do most of Marc Lawrence's readers. ALL of those numbers were lifted out of the Preseason Playbook. Nice of you to share though.
that is one of many stat books in my library... can't argue with an 80% ats trend...
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target_9 |
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#18 Posted: 8/27/2009 6:25:31 AM GL tonight!!! MIA |
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tiedup2night |
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#19 Posted: 8/27/2009 7:49:57 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by target_9: GL tonight!!! MIA
you too target9, i saw your baseball card and it looks good!! will probably take the cards and the angels off of it and then load up on the dolphins.. smaller play on the pats...
ADDING 1 UNIT TO THE DOLPHINS BET for 4 TOTAL UNITS..
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tiedup2night |
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#20 Posted: 8/27/2009 7:33:48 PM
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tiedup2night |
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#21 Posted: 8/27/2009 7:43:51 PM
DOLPHINS ML +100 for 1 unit
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4shizzo |
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#22 Posted: 8/28/2009 12:04:05 AM 
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tiedup2night |
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#23 Posted: 8/28/2009 12:17:17 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by 4shizzo: Miami
oh yeah!!!!!!! FIVE UNITS = 
Pounded that baby for 5 units after everything was said and done..
That had to be the worst offensive showing in nfl history by both teams... chad henne just out and out stinks.. he had an opportunity to set us all at ease and he throws a ball right to the defensive tackle spying on the tight end!!! that was worse than pop warner...
that being said, i will never complain about a win..
the fins win brings the homework total to
Sides- 3 - 0 for 9.5 units & 1/2
Totals- 0 - 1 for -2.2 units
STILL PENDING-
Green Bay (which falls under the same system play as miami) +3 for 3 units
New England -3 for 2 units...
ADDING
1 more unit to Green Bay for a total of 4 units...
Congrats to all miami backers!!!
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sphan28 |
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#24 Posted: 8/28/2009 1:19:12 AM .. had miami too and miami sec half and tha unda too.. good hit.. |
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hieunguyen |
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#25 Posted: 8/28/2009 1:24:03 AM nice hit  |
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