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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: ***NFL Divisonal Playoffs***
BigHans send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 1/6/2009 12:09:32 PM
47-31-4 YTD Posted
 
- Well, went 3-4 last week.  Went against my instinct on San Diego and tried to get cute with plays on Miami and Minnesota.  Thats the price I paid for laying money on Tarvaris and ignoring an enormous matchup mis-match against the Eagles blitz.  Lesson learned.
 
- On to this week, still alot of homework to do, but my first play I am going large on.  I really, really like this play, although I would have preferred Arizona would've had to play the Giants in the cold.
 
Playing
 
Carolina -9.5 (Large)
 
Fun Stats to start it off:
 
- Arizona is 2-7 this year against either playoff teams or teams that were in contention and barely missed.  (Losses to NE, Washington, Carolina, Philly, Minnesota, Giants, and the Jets, wins at home against Dallas and Miami very early).  The combined average loss for these games was by 18 points.
 
- Arizona is 0-5 playing on the Eastern Time zone, losing by an average of 20 points.  
 
- Arizona is also 0-5 against Physical style football teams, which Carolina certainly qualifies at.
 
- Defensively, Arizona is giving up 31 points per game on the road.  Their rushing yardage allowed is not bottom tier but their road stats are skewed by playing a few poor rushing teams in the first place.
 
As for Carolina, the only teams that gave them any trouble whatsoever were physical style teams with either strong running games and/or strong defenses they played on the road (Minnesota, Giants, Atlanta, Tampa). 
 
- Carolina went undefeated in their home games, winning by an average of 17 points per game, including a ppg average of almost 30, which combined with Arizona giving up 30 on the road is a glaring stat. 
 
- Carolina rushed for an average of 173 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry at home.  Being this is a playoff game, the ground attack will be more prevelant. 
 
Other relevant points and Bottom Line:
 
- I tried to fade Carolina a few times at home this season and learned a hard lesson.  This team takes pride in smashing defenses in the face on the ground, and their two-headed monster rushing attack led by Deangelo Williams is absolutely on fire right now.  I think they are going to run all over the Cardinals in this game, and with a large spread like this running the ball is of paramount importance because it is the best guard against a back door cover.
 
- Defensively, Carolina has been had a few times but rarely at home, as they are only giving up 14 yards per game.  Being that Boldin is banged up, Lucas and Gamble should have moderate success against the Cardinals air attack, and I expect to see alot of 3 and outs.  I also see Peppers and Jon Beason absolutely wreaking havoc on Warner.  A statute like quarterback against a resurgent Peppers is not good news for Cardinal backers.  Warner is going to be put on his back and hurried for most of this game, and I expect alot of three and outs and poor field position for Arizona, which sets up right into the hands of a Panthers rushing attack that is rolling along like a tank right now.
 
- The bottom line is Arizona is a soft, pass first team.  That works fine when they are playing at home against a rookie quarterback or the NFC West.  It does not bode well on the road versus a physically tough team that takes pleasure in punishing opponents.  I have a small worry about laying this much chalk with Delhomme but I don't think the game is going to be in his hands that much. 
 
I am aware this Cardinals team almost beat Carolina earlier this year, but Zona was playing better at the time and Carolina wasn't really rolling along yet.
 
Arizona has proven to be a patsy against both physical teams and when they have to travel cross country, and being that playoff games are more physical this game is setting up to be a complete and utter rout. 
 
Carolina 31 Arizona 13
 
BOL more to come later 
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#2
Posted: 1/6/2009 12:20:07 PM
am with you on this one. hoping the spread will drop though or that could backfire on me and it increases.
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#3
Posted: 1/6/2009 12:21:36 PM
Dixie it might go up if Boldin can't go.  I am laying it now.
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#4
Posted: 1/6/2009 1:21:48 PM
yeah that is a smart idea
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#5
Posted: 1/6/2009 2:36:39 PM
Thoughts on this one, haven't made my mind up yet.
 
Balty/Tennessee:
 
Tough one to cap.  Baltimore has beat up on weaker teams this year, only beating one playoff team aside from Miami all season.   Tennessee has beaten 4 playoff teams and has been strong as hell at home.
 
- In their first meeting Baltimore dominated total yardage and time of possesion.  Collins threw two picks but also led the Titans to two 80 yard scoring drives, leading to a victory.  Tennessee also owned the special teams edge in return yards and Stover missed a field goal.
 
- I'm trying to think of how each offense is going to attack.  Both defenses are elite, their stats are almost identical.  The strength of Tennessee's run defense is power, while the strength of the Ravens ground attack is power.  I wonder how Haynesworth and Van Den Bosch are going to hold up from a conditioning standpoint as each has been out for over a month.  Could they wear down?
 
- On the other side Tennessee likes to soften teams up with Lendale and burn them with Johnson.  Lendale White is going absolutely NOWHERE against this Ravens D, so the question is can Johnson get loose a couple of times and can Collins manage to not throw 2-3 picks.  Collins played well against Pittsburgh so Tennessee has proven it can take on tough defenses.
 
- Experience edge to Collins, coaching edge to Fisher, momentum edge to Baltimore.  I think this number is spot on so may be ripe for a teaser.  I am also leaning under as I don't see Flacco having success downfield like he has in other games, but the number is so friggin low its making me ponder.
 
 
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#6
Posted: 1/6/2009 2:51:07 PM
atlanta should have won that game. arizona was lucky..atlanta's D was messing up
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#7
Posted: 1/6/2009 3:43:51 PM
Good stuf.  
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#8
Posted: 1/6/2009 4:04:10 PM
NY/Philly thoughts
 
Haven't fully decided yet but leaning Giants.  I think Philly is going to be a very popular play due to short memories and that Philly beat them in NY very recently.  The Giants have been reeling lately losing 3 out of 4, and the game they won was in over-time, so I suspect the Eagles band wagon is going to be over-flowing on this one.
 
Advantages I see for NY:
 
1. The last time these two faced off when Jacobs was healthy the Giants rushed for over 200 yards and almost doubled the time of possession.  Yes, Plax was involved in that game.
 
2. The Eagles pash rush is vaunted no doubt but aside from one bad outing vs Dallas this NYG offensive line is stellar and has only given up 1 sack to Philly in two meetings this year.
 
3. I think this Philly team is a master of smoke and mirrors.  They beat the Giants, yes, but NY was in a very bad spot following the Plax drama and Philly was flat out more motivated for that game.  Lets not forget however how they only put up 3 points in Washington in a must win game, and how they got completly hammered in Baltimore, a team the Giants absolutely took apart in the Meadowlands.
 
4. Regarding the Giants drama and late season swoon, I think the break is going to do them wonders, and Philly provided them the blueprint in the last game for the only way they can beat NYG, and that is to run the ball.  Westbrook dominated that game and you can bet every dollar you have NYG will be prepared this time around.  Westbrook carrying the ball 33 times took them completly by surprise, as he only toted it 13 times in their first meeting in Philly
 
5. McNabb is 3-7 in his last 10 vs the Giants, and part of that was when Philly had better teams then the one they have now, and NYG was much weaker than they are now.  McNabb has struggled vs the Giants for a great part of his career, and I highly doubt he's going to go into the meadowlands in the playoffs against a rested well coached team and play lights out.
 
Advantages for Philly
 
1. For the most part they have played extrememly well since the McNabb overtime fiasco.  They caught alot of teams in enviable spots but nonetheless they tore Dallas apart and won in a tough environment last week.
 
2. Plax being out puts way more pressure on Eli.
 
3. Dawkins is playing like an absolute beast right now.
 
** I am leaning NYG but am going to wait awhile to see if the number moves off of 4.  If it hits 3.5 I may buy the hook. 
 
Thoughts welcome.
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#9
Posted: 1/6/2009 4:14:40 PM
Edit: Mcnabb is 4-6 last 10 vs NYG.
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#10
Posted: 1/6/2009 5:18:07 PM
Initial Thoughts on SD/Pitt.
 
- If I wasn't worried about Ben's mental state after a concusion I would not hesitate to hammer Pitt, or rather, hammer LeBeau with extra time to prepare.  This Pitt defense is one of the best we've seen in the last ten years and assures they will be in every game they play.  I do not question it and I do not worry about their defense. 
 
- However, I do worry about Ben covering 6 points in this spot.  I worry about him making bone-headed plays and throwing picks.  Its a very good thing for Pitt that SD has struggled to rush the passer this year, as Pitt's protection woes are well documented, although they have improved some recently.
 
- On the SD side, I question whether Sproles will be able to carry the load against a real run defense, particularly in what could be sloppy weather.  I seriously doubt LT plays in this game, considering the last three playoff games the Chargers have been involved in he has taken about 5 carries and then sat and sulked about it.  Can Rivers and Sproles carry the load against a lights out defense?
 
- I'm leaning Pitt because I am having a hard time making a case for SD moving the ball against them in these conditions, unless LeBeau over-blitzes and Sproles gets loose on a huge screen pass, or Taylor or Townsend get too aggresive on deep balls and get a few pass interference penalities.  Rivers was throwing the ball away constantly against the Colts whose pass rush isnt even close to as violent as Pitt's is.   Rivers also gets frustrated easily when pressured so I can see him forcing a few mistakes.   
 
- Whatever way I go, this will be a small play.  I don't fully trust either team and have resigned myself that I am too much of a degenerate to watch this game without having some action on it.  It will be my least confident play of the week, regardless.
 
- All of it aside, I hope Pitt absolutely drills SD.  I love the way the Steelers play defense, it is a thing of beauty to watch.  SD has fucked me far more than any other team too.
 
Thoughts are more than welcome on this one.
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#11
Posted: 1/6/2009 6:49:06 PM
Big Hans 
 
Everyday that goes by, there are more and more hacks clogging up this site.  Glad to see to a newcomer that brings some killer insight. 
 
 
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#12
Posted: 1/6/2009 6:52:34 PM
they already played the AZ/Carolina game once.....Carolina was lucky....you can take all those stats and throw them out....Delhomme will put this team in danger.....-10 in the playoffs is not a good way to make a living....
 
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#13
Posted: 1/6/2009 7:06:47 PM
BigHans: Your write-ups are phenomenal, keep up the good work, I have no doubt you will become very popular on this site if you stick around for a couple of seasons. YTD record is very impressive as well.
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#14
Posted: 1/6/2009 7:38:40 PM
As far as Balt and Tenn, try and look at a few things
 
Def- virtually the same but Reed pushes Balt ahead
Run- Tenn with a large edge
WR- Balt has the edge
QB- even
ST- Balt
 
I'll say it again Def wins big games. So in this case we have 2 big def teams but Balt has more def playmakers. Tenn has a better run game but it will be irrelevant. Both Qb's will be rushed to throw. I will take Balt in this game having a slight advt. They are way more hungry and Tenn is due to fall against a very good def team.
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#15
Posted: 1/6/2009 11:57:49 PM
Thanks fellas.

Train - I think the previous game was Zona playing about as well as they can early on the road, and Carolina starting out very poorly.  Carolina still found a way to win.  I don't think the circumstance repeats itself this time around.

Mobcapper - You make some excellent points.  I think Balt has a slight edge to begin with on D, and I think Haynesworth could be gassed by the 4th.  The Ravens have been wearing teams out recently with the run game.  I'm still undecided but excellent points nontheless.
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#16
Posted: 1/7/2009 12:44:10 AM
 Carolina's defense is not that good ranked 19th in the NFL.  They are going against one of the top offenses in Cards.  Cards defense statistically is not that bad ranked 18th in the NFL.  Yes i know they played in the touted NFC west.   IMO the key in this game is turnovers, on the season Carolina is +6 Arizona even.  When Arizona has been killed on the road Warner has thrown 3 Ints  (Jets and Eagles).  If the turnover battle is close Arizona keeps it within 10.  If they don't this could be a garbage show.   Warner hasn't played well on the road all year why should he start now?   Carolina is sick at home.  Delhomme is a seasoned quarterback Fox is a proven coach  Public pounding the underdog.  There is no doubt Carolina wins this game.  Not sure they cover 10.  My play this weekend will be a 7 point teaser:  Maybe my only play. 
 
Carolina           -3
Philadelphia   +10
 
Pound it.
 
Love the Eagles +4 as well 
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#17
Posted: 1/7/2009 9:02:03 AM
like all your plays. i like the ravens but only thing that scares me is i underestimated the titans when they played the steelers to.
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#18
Posted: 1/7/2009 9:11:58 AM
Panthers..........Hell yeah 
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#19
Posted: 1/7/2009 9:18:34 AM
thats a good choice sportsfreak
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#20
Posted: 1/7/2009 12:25:04 PM
Hans

I am all aboard with you on the Panthers game.  10 does seem a bit high but I have been saying AZ was overrated now for 3 weeks.  They made me eat crow last week.  This week they show their true suck colors.
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#21
Posted: 1/7/2009 12:27:16 PM
Just amazing writeups as uaual....
 
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#22
Posted: 1/7/2009 12:41:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigHans:

Edit: Mcnabb is 4-6 last 10 vs NYG.

And Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings vs Giants.

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#23
Posted: 1/7/2009 4:25:12 PM
good writeup hans.

not sure about roth being mental.  that guy is always playing strange and yet manages to do whatever it takes to win.  the field being roughed up and slippery and the cold and the blockwall defense of the steelers.  chargers lose.  no doubt.  but by how much?  could be slim. i think ml on pitt.  there will be no lt.  he's done.  gates is weak.  the little dude will be neutralized.  

like the panthers pick.  not sure about the high spread.  staying away from the giants game.  it's the manning choke factor that bothers me.  

tenn takes it.  no doubt.  ravens been catching a lot of good press lately because of reed and lewis.  but flacco was stuck several times in that last game against miami.  he's a pretty average qb. can't overlook tits have had a 2 week bye.  they gave their starters time off for the last reg seasons game and they got an official bye. they're smart and capable offensively.  rested.  on their home turf.  i gave up 2 points.    
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#24
Posted: 1/7/2009 4:34:54 PM
Panthers all around better team. Giants better on D especially the defensive coordinator.

Like those plays first of all playoff plays.

Still not sure they are the best possible wagers overall of the rotation though.
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#25
Posted: 1/7/2009 7:33:40 PM
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