To Those Considering the San Diego ML...................

Just a few interesting things............


1. I know the Chargers are playing well but are they really going to go into Pittsburgh and beat one of the best defenses ever? Yes, this Pittsburgh D is one of the best ever and this year they finished 1st in rush D, pass D, overall D and points against, that's sick. They also have not allowed a 100 yard rusher or 300 yard passer all season and I believe in only 1 single game this season they gave up over 300 yards of total offense in a game and that was at the end of a brutal stretch of their schedule.

Sproles was great last week against a weak Indy run D, but will he be able to be big again this week? This is a bruising Pittsburgh D that could smash the little guy up, not to mention they gave up a league best just 3.3 YPC this season.

That means the offense will probably once again fall on Rivers arm. Hey, Rivers has been great this season and I am really coming around to him as a top level QB and leader but the guy is about as mobile as a duck on land. Just look at last week's game against a rush nowhere near as complicated or as good as Pittsburgh's, Rivers was repeatedly flushed from the pocket from just two stationary edge rushers in Mathis and Freeney and outside of that dive run for the first down, he really struggled running out there with heat on him. He regularly tossed it out of bounds or pretty much grounded it. His numbers at home against a much weaker defense last week were not that great really. 20/36 for 215 yards no TD's and 1 pick. How the heck is he going to fare on the road against one of the best defenses of all time? on a bye? that can not only rush the passer with phenomenal rushers but brings blitz packages that swarm and come out of nowhere? In the earlier game between these two teams in Pittsburgh Rivers led the Chargers to just 10 points and a paltry 218 total yards on offense. He was 15/26 for 164 yards no TD's and 2 picks. Good luck Philip.


2.  I just talked about how good statistically this Pittsburgh defense is but another huge key is their consistancy. As I said I think there was only one game the whole year they gave up over 300 yards on defense. Why is this important? Because each and every game this year the Pittsburgh defense has kept the team in the game. The defense really hasn't lost a game all season, the offense is responsible for Pittsburgh's 4 losses. Let's look at those losses:


Week 3 @ Philadelphia: The defense does a great job holding the Eagles to just 260 total yards and 15 points at home. The offense? Well, they sucked. They managed a pathetic 6 points and 180 yards of total offense. The O-line/Ben couldn't handle the pressure and the Steelers surrendered 9 sacks and turned the ball over 3 times.

Week 8 home to the Giants: Again the defense kept them in it holding the Giants to just 282 yards of total offense and held the Earth/Wind/Fire trio to just 83 yards on 35 carries for just 2.4 YPC. The offense? Well, they sucked. They could only manage 249 yards of offense and 14 points. Ben and the O-line again couldn't handle the pressure as they gave up 5 sacks and turned the ball over 4 times.

Week 10 home to he Colts: Statistically not the Steelers best game defensively but the stats are somewhat skewed due to a long Colts touchdown that should have been intercepted but was tipped and fell into the lap of the Colts reciever for a TD. But the D still kept the team in the game. The offense? Well, they sucked. Ben was sacked twice again and could not read the tough Colts Cover 2 pass defense that only gave up 6 TD's all season, Ben was picked off 3 times and had no TD's.

Week 16 @ Tennessee: This is the only game the Pittsburgh D gave up over 300 yards this year giving up 322, but it was a very tough spot against another physical opponent and 3rd road game in 4 weeks as they had just played New England, Dallas and Baltimore. But still, the defense had them in the game as Tennessee led just 17-14 after 3 quarters and the offense acually moved the ball when they had it piling up 374 total yards but yet again Ben and the O-line couldn't get it done as he was sacked 5 times and the offense commited 4 turnovers.


Does anyone see any familiar themes in those losses? I do, the defense had them in every game. No loss can really be blamed on this Pittsburgh defense. The offense? They lost every game. But here is the key: Look at how and why they lost. It was sacks and turnovers every game!! It's a combination of Ben not being able to read/react to the pressure (Eagles, Giants, Titans) or the Colts Tampa 2 Cover defense and the struggles of the offensive line. After all this what am I getting at? Are the Chargers a blitz heavy defense with a good pass rush and good secondary which is what has beaten the Steelers this season? NO!!!! Will the Steelers lose this game? HIGHLY UNLIKELY!!!!


The Chargers defense although much improved over the second half of the season it still relatively weak and the pass rush needed to get to Roethlisberger and force turnovers is just not there. They could not get much of a rush last week mustering only one sack allowing Manning plenty of time to complete 60% of his throws. In their last 6 games the Chargers have only managed 6 sacks total, they will need that kind of pressure in this game alone to force the turnovers they will need to beat this team.


Having gotten extremely longwinded, even though I think Pittsburgh wins would I lay the 6? Still debating it, I'm scared of the chalk for some reason. Still looking into it but right now I'm thinking or a ML parlay or the dreaded teaser with Carolina. San Diego is going to need some major breaks to win this game.

Just sayin.......................

There is no question that the Pitt D is tough. And sproles is small but the one thing I would say is that he is not beat up as most RB's would be at this time. He is Super Fresh, having played sparingly this season, only one full game as a starter,

and has a motor that doesnt seem to take its foot of the gas.

Too Bad LT got hurt but I think that was a blessing for them.
Forced them to give it to Sproles. Look at him go...

Watch out for Bennett as well.

no question pitt d is phenomenal but their lack of offensive prowess will allow SD to hang around all game

If you won a hugh hold'em pot and the very next hand you get AK suited would you fold? Naturally, you'd make a bet. Flop comes 10,3,2 would you fold? You'd bet, or I would. Its called a continuation bet and if you eventually lose the hand well, thats gambling. But here is the key....remember the hugh hand you won the previously hand, just make sure you lose less than that with your losing hand and you'll be a very successful gambler. You can't win every game but you do have to take a chance when you're given a good hand or situation and SD is in a good situation.

how is big ben feeling after getting his bell rung?

ever had a concussion before?

he passed a concussion test yesterday.. says he feels he will be 100% for the game.

wonderful write up mac. i couldent have said it better myself. you know my team well....i appreciate that.....  i have the same feeling about the -6. also looking at the teaser option. i do not see the chargers running period. phillip will have a big job on sunday....and harrision / woodley will be a major hurdle for mr rivers to deal with...but i still dont like -6. also agree with KOAJ in regards to the steeler offense keeping the chargers close by not scoring enough. this will be fun to watch but im still unsure of what to play. what to do....what to do...

SD + 13  carolina - 2.5  ??????

Screw it boys, I think I'm going to lay the 6. San Diego just doesn't have the pressure defense needed to force Ben into turnovers, which is how you beat the Steelers.

I think so too.  They need LT AND Sproles to stay in this one and that's not going to happen.

Concerned with Pitt coming out rusty after the 2 weeks but they've gotten by being rusty on offense for weeks.

BOL 

Its not very likely that SD wins at Pitt,  it would have been MUCH more unlikely for SD to win at Tennessee had Miami won (although the spread would have been lower because of the public's love of Pitt).  Just a tangent observation.

Yeah it is. I think Pittsburgh is going to the Superbowl but the damn chalk is tough. I may still cover my ass with a teaser or ML parlay with Carolina but the more I think about it the more I think the Steelers are going to lay a smack down on the frauds from San Diego this Sunday.

Yep, that is the problem with this team is this Bozo back there making mistakes behind a shaky line. This is the only thing that has me worried about the -6. But I don't think this is the type of San Diego defense that can cause the type of pressure needed to force him into those mistakes.

Although he struggles throughout games against pressure defenses, one thing has to be said about Roethlisberger and that is he is usually money when his team needs a big drive late in the 4th quarter. But again what about the -6?

One other thing I think worth watching is I really have a feeling Pittsburgh comes out and gets back to Steeler football and pounds the rock with Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore. Roethlisberger is at his best when the Steelers have set up the run game and allowed him to play off it. Tomlin has already said he'd like to get back to the short pass game where Ben was effective in the first game against the Chargers, 31/41 for 307 yards and no picks I believe. But I have a feeling they come out and pound the rock to take pressure off of Ben and also kill the clock and keep the Chargers offense off the field.