There is one thing I know for sure in this whole thread:
Getting the best line consistently is the biggest determinant of longterm success, and it is what good books like Pinnacle use to rate players. Pinnacle doesnt care if you win or lose (short term), they care if you consistently get the best line because they know longterm you will win.
There is one thing I know for sure in this whole thread:
Getting the best line consistently is the biggest determinant of longterm success, and it is what good books like Pinnacle use to rate players. Pinnacle doesnt care if you win or lose (short term), they care if you consistently get the best line because they know longterm you will win.
I really don't think that this line was baiting anyone nor is there such a thing.
It has more to do with the bettor's perceptions of teams.The Eagles had struggled without a healthy Westbrook and bad play calling.
The Cards have been palying great ,except for when they played the Jets. If you recall Warner had a terrible game and a lot of it had to do with the weather. What most people did not know is that Warner was wearing a new glove that he was not used to and it made gripping the ball difficult. Look at the T/O 's that game and how many points the Jets scored from T'O's
This week Zona travelled East to a cold Philly where once again Warner wore the gloves. Philly was playing with alot more desperation and look at how Westbrook played right from the 1ST quarter.
I think the biggest mistake recreational bettors make is putting too much value on lasts weeks performances.
Many examples but I will use the Broncos.They lost outright to a shitty Chiefs team and they lost bad. Then the next week they travel to Atlantla and most people jumped on Atlanta -5.5 . I believe Atlanta won but less than the spread.
Broncos lost to a shitty Raiders team last week and they lost bad. Meanwhile the Jets trounced undefeated Titans and they now host the Broncos who cant stop the run and have so many LB injuries and can't play pass coverage defense either.So what did we get ?
Most backing Jets and Denver wins outright.
If you want to be successful ,then cap the games and cap the teams based on the season ...do not let last weeks perfomances influence your decision.
Best of Luck
I really don't think that this line was baiting anyone nor is there such a thing.
It has more to do with the bettor's perceptions of teams.The Eagles had struggled without a healthy Westbrook and bad play calling.
The Cards have been palying great ,except for when they played the Jets. If you recall Warner had a terrible game and a lot of it had to do with the weather. What most people did not know is that Warner was wearing a new glove that he was not used to and it made gripping the ball difficult. Look at the T/O 's that game and how many points the Jets scored from T'O's
This week Zona travelled East to a cold Philly where once again Warner wore the gloves. Philly was playing with alot more desperation and look at how Westbrook played right from the 1ST quarter.
I think the biggest mistake recreational bettors make is putting too much value on lasts weeks performances.
Many examples but I will use the Broncos.They lost outright to a shitty Chiefs team and they lost bad. Then the next week they travel to Atlantla and most people jumped on Atlanta -5.5 . I believe Atlanta won but less than the spread.
Broncos lost to a shitty Raiders team last week and they lost bad. Meanwhile the Jets trounced undefeated Titans and they now host the Broncos who cant stop the run and have so many LB injuries and can't play pass coverage defense either.So what did we get ?
Most backing Jets and Denver wins outright.
If you want to be successful ,then cap the games and cap the teams based on the season ...do not let last weeks perfomances influence your decision.
Best of Luck
I guess, then, the underlying common denominator among "sharps" is their skill in predicting line movement, not simply picking winners. It seems as though picking winners is the last part of the equation for a winning ticket.
There's a couple of good examples on this board of "sharps" who make damn sure to get the best possible line--WahooS and MrBator. Say what you want about either--and I'm sure many will come out of the woodwork about MrBator--but what gets lost in the bevy of winners that these guys produce is how their always holding on to the best possible damn line. No joke. And this isn't just about the points. For example, if 3 (-110) is readily available, MrBator will have -3 EV or +105. This factor alone goes a long way in giving us bettors an advantage. WahooS consistently posts his plays on Sundys because he's busy tracking down lines as they come out at BookMaker. Ask him how far getting good numbers--especially when betting favorites--has gotten him.
It's already so tough to pick winners, yet day in and day out, you see the "top" cappers on this board throwing out plays with the worst of numbers. People troll around for a guys' plays right up until game time where the said capper posts a play with a readily available line. If you're stuck with a readily available line, consider yourself already somewhat beaten. Who can afford to start in the hole before the game even starts?
I guess, then, the underlying common denominator among "sharps" is their skill in predicting line movement, not simply picking winners. It seems as though picking winners is the last part of the equation for a winning ticket.
There's a couple of good examples on this board of "sharps" who make damn sure to get the best possible line--WahooS and MrBator. Say what you want about either--and I'm sure many will come out of the woodwork about MrBator--but what gets lost in the bevy of winners that these guys produce is how their always holding on to the best possible damn line. No joke. And this isn't just about the points. For example, if 3 (-110) is readily available, MrBator will have -3 EV or +105. This factor alone goes a long way in giving us bettors an advantage. WahooS consistently posts his plays on Sundys because he's busy tracking down lines as they come out at BookMaker. Ask him how far getting good numbers--especially when betting favorites--has gotten him.
It's already so tough to pick winners, yet day in and day out, you see the "top" cappers on this board throwing out plays with the worst of numbers. People troll around for a guys' plays right up until game time where the said capper posts a play with a readily available line. If you're stuck with a readily available line, consider yourself already somewhat beaten. Who can afford to start in the hole before the game even starts?
Well Said ....Too many losers that have nothing to say except those stupid
and it just makes people .
don't you just want to them?
Seriously though what a waste of space. I hate those posts
I think this is the first or second tme I have used those emoticons.Usually those are the same goofs that will bash a good capper when they lose 1 game
Well Said ....Too many losers that have nothing to say except those stupid
and it just makes people .
don't you just want to them?
Seriously though what a waste of space. I hate those posts
I think this is the first or second tme I have used those emoticons.Usually those are the same goofs that will bash a good capper when they lose 1 game
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many factors??? ...please give me two.
The fact that S.D had big expectations for this season and this was a Must win percieved game for them added to the line IMO.
Plus they are mos def a bigger market team that Atlanta. Before Vick even came to the Falcons they were the Bucs of the 80's.
Last year they were so crap that this year even though they are winning people expect them to start losing.Rookie Q.B ..not too many name players at key positions.
BTW...I did not say it was meant as a trap game.I don't believe in trap games but rather bad lines due to inaccurate perceptions of teams.
[/Quote
many factors??? ...please give me two.
The fact that S.D had big expectations for this season and this was a Must win percieved game for them added to the line IMO.
Plus they are mos def a bigger market team that Atlanta. Before Vick even came to the Falcons they were the Bucs of the 80's.
Last year they were so crap that this year even though they are winning people expect them to start losing.Rookie Q.B ..not too many name players at key positions.
BTW...I did not say it was meant as a trap game.I don't believe in trap games but rather bad lines due to inaccurate perceptions of teams.
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