Here we go again. The public is loaded up on arguably the best team in the NFL out in the dessert and the line has dropped the other way from -3.5 to -3.
But the bookies are apparently giving out money in these games this year. If a line seems too good to be true don't sweat it, bet it. Surely the juggernaut Giants can cover a measly FG against the freaking Cardinals right?
I am done trying to figure it out. Maybe this is why demapples didn't post his "sucker bet of the week" on Sunday. There doesn't seem to be such a thing this year.
I am not taking the Giants because I KNOW the first time I bite on a line like this I will get my ass handed to me. Meanwhile the rest of you should unload on the "easy bet."
It's hip to be a square.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Here we go again. The public is loaded up on arguably the best team in the NFL out in the dessert and the line has dropped the other way from -3.5 to -3.
But the bookies are apparently giving out money in these games this year. If a line seems too good to be true don't sweat it, bet it. Surely the juggernaut Giants can cover a measly FG against the freaking Cardinals right?
I am done trying to figure it out. Maybe this is why demapples didn't post his "sucker bet of the week" on Sunday. There doesn't seem to be such a thing this year.
I am not taking the Giants because I KNOW the first time I bite on a line like this I will get my ass handed to me. Meanwhile the rest of you should unload on the "easy bet."
I saw this too Red. Pissed me off because I was hoping for 4 on Zona. Its a long trip for NY and Arizona is a frickin juggernaut at home. I think the Cards can hang.
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I saw this too Red. Pissed me off because I was hoping for 4 on Zona. Its a long trip for NY and Arizona is a frickin juggernaut at home. I think the Cards can hang.
Normally I think this would be a great spot to take the Cards. I am just tired of getting burned. I need to stay away from fishy lines until Vegas stops giving away money on these "easy bets."
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Normally I think this would be a great spot to take the Cards. I am just tired of getting burned. I need to stay away from fishy lines until Vegas stops giving away money on these "easy bets."
Should be an interesting week. Its amazing how fast they took NE off the 3 number. I went big on it but my action isnt enough to make a dent. There has to be serious money on the Pats right now.
Aside from Zona every other line is moving according to the bets. I find it humorous that Detroit is a public dog right now. Detroit hasn't covered at home ONCE this year.
I am about to unload on your skins simply because I am tired of overthinking trap lines in Seattle. I faded Philly and Zona there and got crushed. Of course, if I do that Seattle will probably win straight up.
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Should be an interesting week. Its amazing how fast they took NE off the 3 number. I went big on it but my action isnt enough to make a dent. There has to be serious money on the Pats right now.
Aside from Zona every other line is moving according to the bets. I find it humorous that Detroit is a public dog right now. Detroit hasn't covered at home ONCE this year.
I am about to unload on your skins simply because I am tired of overthinking trap lines in Seattle. I faded Philly and Zona there and got crushed. Of course, if I do that Seattle will probably win straight up.
Also going to be following the Colts/Chargers closely. I think the Public is going to be all over Indy because they will see it as a revenge game and that Indy is 6-4 while San Diego is 4-6. On paper, "the wrong team is favored." Most will probably forget however that without some extraordinarily lucky breaks for the Colts and extreme bad luck for the Bolts those records would be reversed.
It will probably take big, big money to move it to 2.5. If it does I might peel off 4 or more units on it.
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Also going to be following the Colts/Chargers closely. I think the Public is going to be all over Indy because they will see it as a revenge game and that Indy is 6-4 while San Diego is 4-6. On paper, "the wrong team is favored." Most will probably forget however that without some extraordinarily lucky breaks for the Colts and extreme bad luck for the Bolts those records would be reversed.
It will probably take big, big money to move it to 2.5. If it does I might peel off 4 or more units on it.
I am about to unload on your skins simply because I am tired of overthinking trap lines in Seattle. I faded Philly and Zona there and got crushed. Of course, if I do that Seattle will probably win straight up.
Same here. Big part of my frustration. The lines makers have a horrible read on this Seahawks team right now.
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Quote Originally Posted by BigHans:
I am about to unload on your skins simply because I am tired of overthinking trap lines in Seattle. I faded Philly and Zona there and got crushed. Of course, if I do that Seattle will probably win straight up.
Same here. Big part of my frustration. The lines makers have a horrible read on this Seahawks team right now.
How much steam do you think is on this to remove the hook off the 3 to invite more action on 1). the Super Bowl Champs who 2). are giving everyone the impression they are unstoppable right now?
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How much steam do you think is on this to remove the hook off the 3 to invite more action on 1). the Super Bowl Champs who 2). are giving everyone the impression they are unstoppable right now?
Guys, there is no such thing as a trap line. I said the same thing last week. If you like a play then make it.
The line was short on Tennessee last week because the books knew all the big money bettors or "sharps" would take the divisional home dog. The bookies aren't giving out money on these games they are simply looking for equal action and to take home the juice. I believe there was more money on Jacksonville last week when the line was -3 otherwise it wouldn't have moved to -2.5. The books had to move the line to get more money bet on Tennessee.
Same story here. For the line to move from 3.5 to 3 should tell you right now that there is currently more money on Arizona than the Giants and the books are looking for some Giants money.
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Guys, there is no such thing as a trap line. I said the same thing last week. If you like a play then make it.
The line was short on Tennessee last week because the books knew all the big money bettors or "sharps" would take the divisional home dog. The bookies aren't giving out money on these games they are simply looking for equal action and to take home the juice. I believe there was more money on Jacksonville last week when the line was -3 otherwise it wouldn't have moved to -2.5. The books had to move the line to get more money bet on Tennessee.
Same story here. For the line to move from 3.5 to 3 should tell you right now that there is currently more money on Arizona than the Giants and the books are looking for some Giants money.
Giants returning to site of their Superbowl, so I think they will be pumped (no letdown from Ravens game). The big difference between this year's Giants and last year's team is their depth and the coaches confidence in rotating players in and out, keeping them fresh. I see Spagnolo devising simple schemes to get to immobile Warner.
This is a cocky group right now and they have the beef on both OL and DL. Cards are considered elite now and this was an intra-division game in the past, so motivation should be there. Finally, downplaying the travel factor.
I will look to pay it down to -2.5 and also play the over.
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Giants returning to site of their Superbowl, so I think they will be pumped (no letdown from Ravens game). The big difference between this year's Giants and last year's team is their depth and the coaches confidence in rotating players in and out, keeping them fresh. I see Spagnolo devising simple schemes to get to immobile Warner.
This is a cocky group right now and they have the beef on both OL and DL. Cards are considered elite now and this was an intra-division game in the past, so motivation should be there. Finally, downplaying the travel factor.
I will look to pay it down to -2.5 and also play the over.
Guys, there is no such thing as a trap line. I said the same thing last week. If you like a play then make it.
I respect your opinion but I am have a hard time truly believing this, despite all of the recent epic fails. This is such a square way to go. Betting should never feel this simple.
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Guys, there is no such thing as a trap line. I said the same thing last week. If you like a play then make it.
I respect your opinion but I am have a hard time truly believing this, despite all of the recent epic fails. This is such a square way to go. Betting should never feel this simple.
I respect your opinion but I am have a hard time truly believing this, despite all of the recent epic fails. This is such a square way to go. Betting should never feel this simple.
It never is. That's why we win and lose lol. I like trying to find out why lines are the way they are. It's just my opinion but I think there is always a sound reason why lines are set the way they are and it's not a "trap" line.
Scroll down to Wallstreetcappers post in this thread. It may give some insight into the line. Remember, "things are not always as they appear". In other words, if it seems like a slam dunk, there are reasons why it's not.
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Quote Originally Posted by redskinsnut:
I respect your opinion but I am have a hard time truly believing this, despite all of the recent epic fails. This is such a square way to go. Betting should never feel this simple.
It never is. That's why we win and lose lol. I like trying to find out why lines are the way they are. It's just my opinion but I think there is always a sound reason why lines are set the way they are and it's not a "trap" line.
Scroll down to Wallstreetcappers post in this thread. It may give some insight into the line. Remember, "things are not always as they appear". In other words, if it seems like a slam dunk, there are reasons why it's not.
Wassup Red wanted to comment on the trap games well wherever there is lots of MONEY there is gonna be trap games because there is no way anything is legit with that much money going around thats how i see it
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Wassup Red wanted to comment on the trap games well wherever there is lots of MONEY there is gonna be trap games because there is no way anything is legit with that much money going around thats how i see it
I think the idea of a trap line or sucker bet does exist...
I think people that have been NFL for more then 10 years can tell you that they have seen it...
I think that demapples has struggled with some bad breaks and based on my knowledge of him, PHI is his team so his picks lack the objectivity and I have avoided his play when ever PHI is involved...
cappers are people too and you can't follow them blindly, you have to know when they are looking erratic or off... Like when Riberto Fiory who played pretty well through the season suddenly went with tons of plays and upping the units... I think watching some of the break down in money management was a sign for me to lay off...
Last week however the line was set at under 3 points and adjusted to 3... I think that ARZ would have been the sucker play against SEA as a homedog if the line did not move to 3... So this was a play to lay off...
I am not sure about the NYG@ARZ play, I agree that on the side of ARZ...
I actually think that the sucker bet for this week is IND (meaning to take SD) or NE (meaning to take MIA)...
I say this because IND and NE have been the strong AFC teams the last few years and still have alot of public perception... so psychology for DAL, IND, NE type players is to give them something to jump at...
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I think the idea of a trap line or sucker bet does exist...
I think people that have been NFL for more then 10 years can tell you that they have seen it...
I think that demapples has struggled with some bad breaks and based on my knowledge of him, PHI is his team so his picks lack the objectivity and I have avoided his play when ever PHI is involved...
cappers are people too and you can't follow them blindly, you have to know when they are looking erratic or off... Like when Riberto Fiory who played pretty well through the season suddenly went with tons of plays and upping the units... I think watching some of the break down in money management was a sign for me to lay off...
Last week however the line was set at under 3 points and adjusted to 3... I think that ARZ would have been the sucker play against SEA as a homedog if the line did not move to 3... So this was a play to lay off...
I am not sure about the NYG@ARZ play, I agree that on the side of ARZ...
I actually think that the sucker bet for this week is IND (meaning to take SD) or NE (meaning to take MIA)...
I say this because IND and NE have been the strong AFC teams the last few years and still have alot of public perception... so psychology for DAL, IND, NE type players is to give them something to jump at...
The only impressive win AZ has is at home against Dallas. I think that if there were any "trap" intentions by the books, they would rather be cheering for the Giants on Sunday. I say bet the better team and take your chances...CLEARLY the Giants fit the bill !
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The only impressive win AZ has is at home against Dallas. I think that if there were any "trap" intentions by the books, they would rather be cheering for the Giants on Sunday. I say bet the better team and take your chances...CLEARLY the Giants fit the bill !
Well its not reverse line movement but SD just dropped two points to -1 over-night. Very interesting development as I havent seen any new injuries posted.
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Well its not reverse line movement but SD just dropped two points to -1 over-night. Very interesting development as I havent seen any new injuries posted.
The fact that Brandon Jacobs may sit out this week has something to do with the line as well. I don't see is as a "trap", I see it as logical. They're the #3 team in the NFC, with the 2nd best Offense in the NFL. The Cardinals are 4-0 @ home, including a win over Dallas, and one over Buffalo when they were 5-1. They are at full strength, and say what you want about them, but they can't get more than 3-3.5 @ home in this spot. At 4 the public would still be on New York, but the real $ would be all over Arizona.
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The fact that Brandon Jacobs may sit out this week has something to do with the line as well. I don't see is as a "trap", I see it as logical. They're the #3 team in the NFC, with the 2nd best Offense in the NFL. The Cardinals are 4-0 @ home, including a win over Dallas, and one over Buffalo when they were 5-1. They are at full strength, and say what you want about them, but they can't get more than 3-3.5 @ home in this spot. At 4 the public would still be on New York, but the real $ would be all over Arizona.
Seems to me like the public continues to win week in and week out. Just don't get it myself, maybe the books just enjoy giving out free money. Its gotta change sometime right?
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Seems to me like the public continues to win week in and week out. Just don't get it myself, maybe the books just enjoy giving out free money. Its gotta change sometime right?
I respect your opinion but I am have a hard time truly believing this, despite all of the recent epic fails. This is such a square way to go. Betting should never feel this simple.
IMO he is on the money red. I don't buy into the 'trap' idea, the only traps out there are the ones we create in our head. The only reason lines 'seem way off' to us is because we get caught up in the hype spread around the media. Right now the hype is high on NYG.
With NYG coming off a big win over BAL on TV, the public is predictably looking at this -3 line and thinking easy money! Vegas isn't trying to trap the public. Cards are a solid team, and money at home.
People point to ARI only big win against DAL at home, that they struggled to beat SF, blah blah blah. How about NYG going to overtime against the bungals? Losing to CLE? This line makes complete sense.
I have this game capped at ARI -1. Here is how the data (similar to last week post on TEN@JAX) lines up for this game....
Win by at least 1: 63.9% Lose by no more than 1: 67.2% Lose by no more than 2: 67.2% Lose by no more than 3: 72.1% Lose by no more than 4: 73.7%
If you could get a line at ARI +3.5, now that would be a solid play, but the standard ARI +3 is still pretty good.
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Quote Originally Posted by redskinsnut:
I respect your opinion but I am have a hard time truly believing this, despite all of the recent epic fails. This is such a square way to go. Betting should never feel this simple.
IMO he is on the money red. I don't buy into the 'trap' idea, the only traps out there are the ones we create in our head. The only reason lines 'seem way off' to us is because we get caught up in the hype spread around the media. Right now the hype is high on NYG.
With NYG coming off a big win over BAL on TV, the public is predictably looking at this -3 line and thinking easy money! Vegas isn't trying to trap the public. Cards are a solid team, and money at home.
People point to ARI only big win against DAL at home, that they struggled to beat SF, blah blah blah. How about NYG going to overtime against the bungals? Losing to CLE? This line makes complete sense.
I have this game capped at ARI -1. Here is how the data (similar to last week post on TEN@JAX) lines up for this game....
Win by at least 1: 63.9% Lose by no more than 1: 67.2% Lose by no more than 2: 67.2% Lose by no more than 3: 72.1% Lose by no more than 4: 73.7%
If you could get a line at ARI +3.5, now that would be a solid play, but the standard ARI +3 is still pretty good.
It never is. That's why we win and lose lol. I like trying to find out why lines are the way they are. It's just my opinion but I think there is always a sound reason why lines are set the way they are and it's not a "trap" line.
Scroll down to Wallstreetcappers post in this thread. It may give some insight into the line. Remember, "things are not always as they appear". In other words, if it seems like a slam dunk, there are reasons why it's not.
But that is what I am talking about. Tennessee and Arizona seemed like slam dunk picks last week and they were. The Giants seem like the obvious pick this week and he presents a great case why this is not going to be the case. My frustration is over how these type of games are cashing in on the obvious side. I want to take Arizona but I am tired of "overthinking" it.
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
It never is. That's why we win and lose lol. I like trying to find out why lines are the way they are. It's just my opinion but I think there is always a sound reason why lines are set the way they are and it's not a "trap" line.
Scroll down to Wallstreetcappers post in this thread. It may give some insight into the line. Remember, "things are not always as they appear". In other words, if it seems like a slam dunk, there are reasons why it's not.
But that is what I am talking about. Tennessee and Arizona seemed like slam dunk picks last week and they were. The Giants seem like the obvious pick this week and he presents a great case why this is not going to be the case. My frustration is over how these type of games are cashing in on the obvious side. I want to take Arizona but I am tired of "overthinking" it.
Meanwhile, here is an article from the "Sharps Report" guy on what is going on with the public and how they see the G-Men:
THE PUBLIC IS IN LOVE WITH THE NY GIANTS!
It started last year in the playoffs when the NY Giants started knocking off NFC foes left and right on the way to the Super Bowl. In the big game, New York was a very popular bet because oddsmakers overestimated love for the Patriots. Many guys bet the Giants on the moneyline at a huge return, and cashed their tickets. Now, through 10 weeks of the 2008 season, Giants backers are 8-2 against the spread for an 80% success rate.
That's 8-2 ATS this season...
That's 12-2 ATS going back to the beginning of the playoffs last year...
That's 16-3 ATS the last 19 board games involving the Giants (excluding preseason games).
You'd think the line would start catching up by now!
Nope. Oddsmakers haven't yet started inflating the numbers like they did for the New England Patriots last year during their hot streak. New York is reasonably priced whenever they take the field. In fact, they've been underdogs twice in the last month!
I didn't get a chance to mention this last week. Sportsbooks in Las Vegas and Reno took a huge hit when the Giants were playing that Sunday Night game at Philadelphia. You know it's a bad sign for the books when both the sharps and the squares are lined up on the same team. Oddsmakers didn't want to move the game off of Philly -3 because that would open up some middle or side possibilities. They figured they'd take a position on the Eagles and hope for the best. BLOODBATH!
New York won outright 36-31. Sportsbooks had to pay out sharps who couldn't believe they were getting a field goal with the better team, and squares who have been cleaning up on the Giants every week.
Here's a quick review of what the Giants have done thus far:
NYG (-4) beat Washington 16-7 in the season opener. A lot of guys like going against the defending Super Bowl champs in their first game of the next season figuring they'll be a little flat, and the opponent will be sky high to take out the carrying the Lombardi Trophy. Sharps took a hit here playing that trend. The public backed the champs at a cheap price and won.
NYG (-8) beat St. Louis 41-13 in week two. Sharps did use the Giants in teaser plays that crossed by the 7 and the 3. But, those who played the team side typically backed the big home dog. Squares thought the Giants would win a blowout. That's what happened! Sportsbooks were hurt here because they paid out Giants bets and all the teasers that hit.
NYG (-12) beat Cincinnati 26-23 in overtime. Finally a flat spot. Sharps said, "See, we told you New York would be overrated." It's the only time that happened in September.
NYG (-7) beat Seattle 44-6. This came after a bye week. The Giants were certainly fired up to atone for their poor showing vs. the Bengals. They caught Seattle in a bad body clock game too. New York gained over 500 yards in what was essentially a lay down from the visitor.
NYG (-8) lost to Cleveland 35-14. You'll recall this Monday Night game. The Browns were sky high for this rare national TV appearance at home. New York came in a bit overconfident after the blowout of Seattle. Eli Manning threw three interceptions in this game. He has a total of three in his other nine games this season! It was the only straight up loss this year for the Giants. This was also the last time they didn't cover a spread.
NYG (-10) beat San Francisco 29-17. This was a lucky late cover on a late safety. Many sharps took the double digit dog here and were mad about the unlucky ending. You know how rare double digit favorite covers have been this season. It's interesting that the defending Super Bowl champs and the hottest team in the NFC has only been a double digit favorite twice!
NYG (+2) beat Pittsburgh 21-14. It took a late rally to get over the top. Eli Manning struggled much of the afternoon. But, when the Steelers left the door open, the Giants kicked it down. Good teams find a way to win. This game very much had a playoff feel to it. New York's been winning those for awhile now, haven't they?
NYG (-8) beat Dallas 35-14. Tony Romo was out for the Cowboys, which made it much easier for New York to pressure a struggling offense. Many of the points were cheap. Dallas had a pick six themselves though, so it was still a decisive victory.
NYG (+3) beat Philadelphia 36-31. Many were considering this a potential playoff or even championship preview. Philadelphia is getting a lot of respect in sharp and pundit circles because Donovan McNabb is a big threat when he's healthy. He's not as good as Eli Manning right now though. And, McNabb had to face the Giants defense while Manning only had to face the Eagles! Talk about a tough three-game series. The Giants survived unscathed against Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Philadelphia, with two of those three on the road. Naturally, that set up a letdown spot against Baltimore on Sunday right? Wrong!
NYG (-6) beat Baltimore 30-10. It wasn't as close as the score either. New York jumped ahead early and was never threatened. This game had trouble written all over it for Giants money because Baltimore's a good team, and New York was coming off its most important games of the year. They barely broke a sweat.
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Meanwhile, here is an article from the "Sharps Report" guy on what is going on with the public and how they see the G-Men:
THE PUBLIC IS IN LOVE WITH THE NY GIANTS!
It started last year in the playoffs when the NY Giants started knocking off NFC foes left and right on the way to the Super Bowl. In the big game, New York was a very popular bet because oddsmakers overestimated love for the Patriots. Many guys bet the Giants on the moneyline at a huge return, and cashed their tickets. Now, through 10 weeks of the 2008 season, Giants backers are 8-2 against the spread for an 80% success rate.
That's 8-2 ATS this season...
That's 12-2 ATS going back to the beginning of the playoffs last year...
That's 16-3 ATS the last 19 board games involving the Giants (excluding preseason games).
You'd think the line would start catching up by now!
Nope. Oddsmakers haven't yet started inflating the numbers like they did for the New England Patriots last year during their hot streak. New York is reasonably priced whenever they take the field. In fact, they've been underdogs twice in the last month!
I didn't get a chance to mention this last week. Sportsbooks in Las Vegas and Reno took a huge hit when the Giants were playing that Sunday Night game at Philadelphia. You know it's a bad sign for the books when both the sharps and the squares are lined up on the same team. Oddsmakers didn't want to move the game off of Philly -3 because that would open up some middle or side possibilities. They figured they'd take a position on the Eagles and hope for the best. BLOODBATH!
New York won outright 36-31. Sportsbooks had to pay out sharps who couldn't believe they were getting a field goal with the better team, and squares who have been cleaning up on the Giants every week.
Here's a quick review of what the Giants have done thus far:
NYG (-4) beat Washington 16-7 in the season opener. A lot of guys like going against the defending Super Bowl champs in their first game of the next season figuring they'll be a little flat, and the opponent will be sky high to take out the carrying the Lombardi Trophy. Sharps took a hit here playing that trend. The public backed the champs at a cheap price and won.
NYG (-8) beat St. Louis 41-13 in week two. Sharps did use the Giants in teaser plays that crossed by the 7 and the 3. But, those who played the team side typically backed the big home dog. Squares thought the Giants would win a blowout. That's what happened! Sportsbooks were hurt here because they paid out Giants bets and all the teasers that hit.
NYG (-12) beat Cincinnati 26-23 in overtime. Finally a flat spot. Sharps said, "See, we told you New York would be overrated." It's the only time that happened in September.
NYG (-7) beat Seattle 44-6. This came after a bye week. The Giants were certainly fired up to atone for their poor showing vs. the Bengals. They caught Seattle in a bad body clock game too. New York gained over 500 yards in what was essentially a lay down from the visitor.
NYG (-8) lost to Cleveland 35-14. You'll recall this Monday Night game. The Browns were sky high for this rare national TV appearance at home. New York came in a bit overconfident after the blowout of Seattle. Eli Manning threw three interceptions in this game. He has a total of three in his other nine games this season! It was the only straight up loss this year for the Giants. This was also the last time they didn't cover a spread.
NYG (-10) beat San Francisco 29-17. This was a lucky late cover on a late safety. Many sharps took the double digit dog here and were mad about the unlucky ending. You know how rare double digit favorite covers have been this season. It's interesting that the defending Super Bowl champs and the hottest team in the NFC has only been a double digit favorite twice!
NYG (+2) beat Pittsburgh 21-14. It took a late rally to get over the top. Eli Manning struggled much of the afternoon. But, when the Steelers left the door open, the Giants kicked it down. Good teams find a way to win. This game very much had a playoff feel to it. New York's been winning those for awhile now, haven't they?
NYG (-8) beat Dallas 35-14. Tony Romo was out for the Cowboys, which made it much easier for New York to pressure a struggling offense. Many of the points were cheap. Dallas had a pick six themselves though, so it was still a decisive victory.
NYG (+3) beat Philadelphia 36-31. Many were considering this a potential playoff or even championship preview. Philadelphia is getting a lot of respect in sharp and pundit circles because Donovan McNabb is a big threat when he's healthy. He's not as good as Eli Manning right now though. And, McNabb had to face the Giants defense while Manning only had to face the Eagles! Talk about a tough three-game series. The Giants survived unscathed against Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Philadelphia, with two of those three on the road. Naturally, that set up a letdown spot against Baltimore on Sunday right? Wrong!
NYG (-6) beat Baltimore 30-10. It wasn't as close as the score either. New York jumped ahead early and was never threatened. This game had trouble written all over it for Giants money because Baltimore's a good team, and New York was coming off its most important games of the year. They barely broke a sweat.
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