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[Website Promotions] Topic: 80-100% percent of the public on one side, games in the NFL |
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collegegambler |
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#1 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:06:16 PM I and others have brough up points that the public loses when 80-100 percent is on one side in a game. Examples are found every week and from last week include 90 percent on the colts, and 90 percent on the jets. So.... Green bay and Oakland cashed in.
Think about it like this, if the 80-100 percent public plays cashed in often, why does Vegas keep making a killing year after year?
I do not even see the point of arguing this anymore, its a fact that the high public concensus/percentage plays at the 80-100 percent level lose much more often then they win.
My main theory this year was bet against the high public percentage plays. Since week 1, I have done very very well doing so. One last example.. last night 92 percent of the public was on Denver ML. Game over in the third quarter in favor of Pats.
It is stated the bookie, or Vegas always wins... And the bookie or vegas would NOT win if the 80-100 percent plays cashed, but they very seldom do.
Bash me if you want, I feel very confident in this area though, that when everyone likes one team, you should simply bet the opposite. It's the NFL and what makes no sense usually wins you  |
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collegegambler |
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#2 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:09:34 PM When vegas puts a line on a game like Jets -3 at oakland they are begging for jets money. Colts -1 at GB begging for colts money.
This week its 5-1 Buffalo at 2-4 Miami. The line? Bills -5 no.....
Bills-1 they are begging for bills takers, and the public will take them at huge levels. (guessing between 75-90 percent) This makes the play the Miami Dolphins |
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collegegambler |
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#3 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:14:44 PM In Week 5 Bills were 4-0 at the 2-2 Cards. Cards just gave up 56 to Jets in meadowlands. So what is the line gotta be bills minus at least 3 right? Nope Arizona minus 1. An average sports bettor says what the fuck the bills are undefeated getting a point in this game!!! Well yes, thats right and the public pounded the bills at huge clips of like 85 percent. Game was over in the third quarter. 41-17 Arizona win.
An example of the line looking to good to be true, and the public all over one team. I had the Cards of course using my theory, and good thing I have NFL sunday ticket, because my bet was never in question and became boring. |
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collegegambler |
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#4 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:20:10 PM the only bet I have lost the entire year so far fading the public was philly minus 5 at San fran. public pounded philly I of course took san fran.
Only reason I lost was San fran out of timeouts under the two min warning. Philly has 4th and inches at the san fran 12 up by 4. So a first down ices the game, as philly would kneel. Reid shouldnt have kicked considering San fran blocked a fg before half for a TD, but decides to do so, and then they pick 6 o-sullivan.
Honestly the only high public percentage game I have lost in 7 weeks this year. I am 7-1 in fading games of 80-100 percent on one side this year. |
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FrontRowCenter |
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#5 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:22:03 PM Don't tap the glass!!!!!
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collegegambler |
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#6 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:29:13 PM haha what do you mean??? |
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collegegambler |
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#7 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:30:21 PM
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Posted: 10/21/2008 6:36:14 PM
Bet Tracker >> wagering activity at multiple online sportsbooks. The "betting percentages" represent actual wagers placed on each game at participating sportsbooks.
Only featuring percentages of 75 % or more >>>
Week 6 bet tracker teams proved to be a good fade ...
Chicago .......76 % loser
NY Giants .....75 % loser
Week 7 :
bet tracker top team proved a good fade ( very high percentage and little to no line movement )
Overall 2 out 3 in the 75 % or above group lost
NY Jets ..... 83 % Loser
Indianapolis....81 % Loser
Chicago ...... 79 % winner | |
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collegegambler |
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#8 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:30:57 PM i am bad with computers but this was posted by robertfiory. above. |
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Greyhound |
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#9 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:31:36 PM One thing you always hear around sports betting circles is "All Vegas wants is equal action on both sides" 
Well if that's what they want then how come these games keep showing up with 80 to 90 percent action on one side? 
I have NEVER believed that bullshit. 
They set you up with their lines. They want to sucker the unwise in and they do it very successfully. 
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peppy222 |
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#10 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:32:46 PM Those who believe in the percentages of money reported by the sportbooks as true... would you like to buy a Gold Mine in Asbury Park? Sportsbooks lie. Listen to them, and lose in the long term. |
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collegegambler |
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#11 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:33:34 PM he uses 75 percent or more public concensus games, and even at those levels it proves the point. 4-1 record just fading and in one of those games the 8 point defending world champion favorite loses the game outright to a 1-3 piece of shit 35-14! and the powerhouse colts lose 34-14. Not to mention the supposed team everyone is afriad to bet Oakland Raiders winning a game outright. |
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peppy222 |
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#12 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:34:25 PM <<<<<<<< "92 percent of the public was on Denver ML."
According to who!? Lying sacks? Why would anyone believe this is true!? This is an unregulated industry! People are soooooooooooooooo gullible! Hello? Wake up! |
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peppy222 |
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#13 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:35:42 PM "Well if that's what they want then how come these games keep showing up with 80 to 90 percent action on one side?"
Because they are LYING about those figures! Wake up. |
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collegegambler |
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#14 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:37:18 PM all i am saying is the facts do not lie, it has been a great 7 weeks with this theory. If it worked for a week or two then, maybe it was luck but for 7 weeks, and I know others in the past who have used this theory all year.
Most football bettors are down at the end of each year, and I do now believe it is because they take what makes sense, and the obvious or "they bet with the public or concensus" |
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collegegambler |
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#15 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:38:51 PM peppy22- who cares if they are lying or not this system works, I bet football because I love the sport, I also want to win as many bets as possible, and this theory works. And I do not believe they are lying because why do the high public percentages lose at about a 80 percent clip at least. |
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BurningPlanet26 |
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#16 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:39:43 PM I think he means don't tell everyone the system! (like tappin a wine glass to make an announcement) LOL.
Seriously not sure why people give you so much crap when all you are trying to do is share what works for you. I think it pisses people off because if true it would prove they have little chance of outhandicapping Vegas consistently. |
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collegegambler |
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#17 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:42:37 PM peppy22- Also these concensus percentages on games are all very similar at many different online sportsbooks. The Jets were like 90 percent on sportsbook and 85 percent on bo dog, 80 percent on wagerline etc. It is not like they are 90 percent somewhere, and 50 another. If vegas is lying what are the real percentages on every game 50/50?? |
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collegegambler |
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#18 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:45:37 PM Burningplanent right on man. I am really not trying to be a jerk, just trying to help others, and get some respect around here. I and I think you yourself burningplanent have found great sucsess using this theory. I have bet National Football league football now for 5 years, and this is the theory that has def worked best for me. This league is so unpredictable anything can happen, and usually betting what makes no sense works. Burningplanet hope you continue great sucsess.  We need to keep threads alive and help each other find the right bets this weekend. |
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JohnBoy224 |
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#19 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:49:53 PM
Sure you'll start out red hot, but it'll taper off and you will most likely find yourself drinking the -110.
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SteelCash |
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#20 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:51:32 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by collegegambler:
When vegas puts a line on a game like Jets -3 at oakland they are begging for jets money. Colts -1 at GB begging for colts money.
This week its 5-1 Buffalo at 2-4 Miami. The line? Bills -5 no.....
Bills-1 they are begging for bills takers, and the public will take them at huge levels. (guessing between 75-90 percent) This makes the play the Miami Dolphins
The linesmakers want 1/2 on one side and 1/2 the people on the other. That's all they want. And the locals never want 75-90% of his clients on one side. They always want it 50/50. They dont come out with the Bills -1 begging for Bills money. They come out with a line what they think will split the public. They want half on one side, and half on the other. |
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JohnBoy224 |
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#21 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:54:59 PM
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collegegambler |
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#22 Posted: 10/21/2008 11:56:02 PM Johnboy- I understand your point, but think about it when 80 percent is on one side, its supposed to be the way better team and the way better bet in the mind of most. So if you havent been around betting long enough it is hard to take on a regular basis the 0-20% range side. Maybe it will cool off but from all my experience in betting (5years now) the whenever likes a team ( remember 80-100 percent levels only) the other side wins at an alarming rate. And there is proof of this shown by the games I stated and even another poster I copied and pasted Roberfiory, that high public plays get killed. |
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JohnBoy224 |
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#23 Posted: 10/22/2008 12:01:12 AM
And right now, with your example game between Buffalo and Miami this weekend, I'm looking at 67% on Buffalo right now. That will likely be the highest consensus side of the weekend and it might not even get over 70%. Baltimore is another, but I dont think that one stays over 70% either.
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SteelCash |
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#24 Posted: 10/22/2008 12:03:37 AM That's what they're aiming for. I dont know how often they get it but (I believe) that's what they're aiming for. I know if I was a local, I wouldn't want $5,000 on one side and $1,000 on the other. I'd be sweating my balls off every Monday night! |
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JohnBoy224 |
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#25 Posted: 10/22/2008 12:07:57 AM
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