Monday Night Football, AUSSIE'S Pick

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Monday Night Football, AUSSIE'S Pick
Aussieguy PM Aussieguy
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Posted: 10/12/2008 11:48:57 PM
19W-11L Record...
Before we get on with tonight's pick, let me get off my chest and say how sweet that blocked punt of Sean Morey felt!  Seriously, when was the last time you all experienced such sheer joy (if you had your hard earned on Arizona, that is) in an NFL game finish??? Wow, kudos to that Beisel-Morey last minute combo play
Let's get to our play today now: LVSC put their heads down together and came up with a 42.5 total spread. The public put their heads down simultaneously and pounded the over, thinking that MNF on ESPN automatically warrants an over play, expecting another MNSF (monday night score fest) However, My 4 Unit question here is: Why is everyone so crazy about another MNSF? Is it simply because the couch potatoes at home want to see high scoring games on tele, or are they thinking these two teams have powerful offensive units?! Yeah I am aware that D.Anderson has been holding the fort somewhat, but who has he got on the receiving end tomorrow to throw to?! There are too many uncertainties, ifs and buts for the Browns. I'm not gonna' bother to cut paste numbers here from various nfl sites, but If you're a stat lover, they're definetely very unflattering for the home team.
Just to add more woes to Cleveland, they're about to run into a brick solid Giants' defense. Burres said that he doesn't care much about what happens off the field, he's there to intercept the passes and get the job done. I also love Hixon's work in the defense too. These guys will make sure that the Browns will be in for a looooooooong night. 
Vegas opened the Browns as a TD dog, and I expect that line to be pretty accurate. It should be a close game and a hard fought encounter. NY ranks first in the offense total this season but I don't expect that stat to translate into a score fest here. In front of their vocal crowd, after a nice win last round, Cleveland is expected to play them tough, although I believe they'll come out short at the end. However I really don't care who wins this, as long as the guy in charge of the scoreboard has a night off.
Pick: UNDER 43.5 for a 4Unit Play 
Best wishes and good luck to all
AUSSIE       
wredskins PM wredskins
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Posted: 10/12/2008 11:51:31 PM
Ace77 PM Ace77
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Posted: 10/12/2008 11:51:35 PM
Im leaning that way myself Aussie,good luck tommorrow
tweinber PM tweinber
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Posted: 10/13/2008 12:00:15 AM
im on it. had a bad day in NFL and was happy to see your post. love your unders. 
risktaker PM risktaker
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Posted: 10/13/2008 12:04:53 AM
goood luck aussi im scare to take that under do to giants ability to score at will combine that with cleveland weak defence but u never know expect the unexpected gl
CoFred PM CoFred
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Posted: 10/13/2008 12:23:34 AM
Thanks Auss GL
reppendayay PM reppendayay
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Posted: 10/13/2008 12:34:21 AM
crookedIcon PM crookedIcon
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Posted: 10/13/2008 12:47:22 AM
eventually the under has to hit in MNF, has it happened this season?... the game odds have been driven up to +9 for the browns, might make that a small play
S_A_I_N_T_S PM S_A_I_N_T_S
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Nevada
 
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Posted: 10/13/2008 1:11:11 AM
 Let's get it mate! 
pddy PM pddy
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Posted: 10/13/2008 1:11:22 AM
its going over 50
 
AChigurh PM AChigurh
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Posted: 10/13/2008 1:25:40 AM
Aussie.... I was going to wait to hit this one..... dont see this raising .5?
RaianSan PM RaianSan
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Posted: 10/13/2008 1:29:26 AM
This week the Giants Offense will be a bit off and I see the Browns playing the Giants tough in this game. I'm leaning toward Browns and Under in this one.
tagsrock PM tagsrock
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Posted: 10/13/2008 1:32:43 AM
zona and the over plus parlay woooooooooo, loving it haha.
mossyoakcamo PM mossyoakcamo
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Posted: 10/13/2008 1:52:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pddy:

its going over 50
 

Why don't you go ahead and tell us..... why? You need not comment without reason on a pick in someone's forum. Give your reason! Or....... please stay away!

AussiePunter101 PM AussiePunter101
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Posted: 10/13/2008 2:08:00 AM
GL MATE
LiquidSwords PM LiquidSwords
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Posted: 10/13/2008 2:23:01 AM
blstuart PM blstuart
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Posted: 10/13/2008 3:39:14 AM
I think I jumped and hit my head on the ceiling when the Cardinals blocked that punt.
Lean to the under tomorrow as well. Thanks as always for the input Aussie
muzza PM muzza
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Posted: 10/13/2008 5:05:35 AM
Goodluck Aussie
changxxx PM changxxx
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Posted: 10/13/2008 5:11:17 AM
lonetreejj PM lonetreejj
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Posted: 10/13/2008 6:36:51 AM
Nice call on the Cards yest. Aussie.  Should have never even made it to OT.
 
Still lookin at tonites matchup.  Like your take on the under.
 
  GL Tonite
 
D-Town PM D-Town
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Posted: 10/13/2008 8:04:09 AM
Good luck Aussie. 
Aussieguy PM Aussieguy
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Posted: 10/13/2008 8:04:34 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AChigurh:

Aussie.... I was going to wait to hit this one..... dont see this raising .5?

AC, I think that .5 has already gone up with most books as the total now sits pretty at 44 flat. With many of these books you could even buy the hook if you wanted to avoid a push. However, as the match is more than 12 hrs away still,  I think the total will get bumped even higher. The pundits really believe that this is flying well and truly over, as 88-92% of the wagers taken thus far have been on the Over. I don't believe in 'bet against the public' phiosophy at all. In fact I think it's slightly simple and verging on moronic! I mean look at the example on Dallas last night where 96% of the public were on the Over and Over it went. I don't hear the Books cry MOOSE as many would have over here, if they'd lost their bet....   But that's a different topic altogether.

However, as I was saying I expect this to go even higher by game time. Is this a case that the public see something that I don't, or is it a case where the public gets screwed by the books yet again? I believe (or at least hope) that it's the latter. But I really think this should stay well and truly under by a TD at least. Let's hope 37 is the magic number yet again here .  To me, 43.5 or 44.5 wouldn't make much of a difference. But I guess we'll just have to wait and see. BOL with your decisions today, to you and everyone else here

HotRoute PM HotRoute
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Posted: 10/13/2008 8:07:23 AM
gl aussie 
NOMOREPPARLAYS PM NOMOREPPARLAYS
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Posted: 10/13/2008 8:29:34 AM
BOL Aussie
miraclemike1 PM miraclemike1
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Posted: 10/13/2008 9:08:39 AM
Thats a good call...public is pounding the over

I expect to see a lot of running in this game...especially by the giants
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