I really believe if you're a hard-core Dallas fan you should be concerned at the way they've performed so far. I know some of you are thinking, what kind of an idiot is this guy, critisising a team which has gone 4-1 in the first 5 games but yeah that's the kind of "idiot" I am, drawing my conclusion after witnessing perhaps one of the most unconvincing 4-1 ratios I've ever seen! Also, keep in mind all you Cowboys supporters, that this is the league's hardest division, and if Dallas is to finish on top of the NFC East, they have to desperately raise the bar here. The Cardinals' offense, lead by the ever exciting Kurt Warner, has really caught everyone's attention raking in some decent numbers that are definetly worth a look! While we're talking about levels of expectation, the 'Zona Boys sit at the opposite side of the spectrum to that of Dallas. Therefore they have been swinging freely, as no one expected them to be the major contenders in the West! I guess we can all identify with the fact that it is much, much easier to perform when you're not under pressure. This has been the case with the Cardinals so far.
Let me also add that I was quite astounded to see Dallas last week, give up 16 unanswered pts to Cincy before getting their butt into gear in the late stages of the game. I don't think they'll be able to afford such slackness against the Cardinals.
Lastly, I am fully aware and conscious that there still is a vast difference between these two teams, but not enough for the Cardinals to not cover the spreads here. The books are aware of what the Cardinals are capable of and they've only "offered" 5.5 pts to them. At home, I shall take the points, no worries, as I don't see Dallas winning more than by a FG (if they win that is!)
Pick: CARDINALS +5.5 for a 4Unit play
Best wishes and Good luck to all
AUSSIE
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
18W-11L Record ...
I really believe if you're a hard-core Dallas fan you should be concerned at the way they've performed so far. I know some of you are thinking, what kind of an idiot is this guy, critisising a team which has gone 4-1 in the first 5 games but yeah that's the kind of "idiot" I am, drawing my conclusion after witnessing perhaps one of the most unconvincing 4-1 ratios I've ever seen! Also, keep in mind all you Cowboys supporters, that this is the league's hardest division, and if Dallas is to finish on top of the NFC East, they have to desperately raise the bar here. The Cardinals' offense, lead by the ever exciting Kurt Warner, has really caught everyone's attention raking in some decent numbers that are definetly worth a look! While we're talking about levels of expectation, the 'Zona Boys sit at the opposite side of the spectrum to that of Dallas. Therefore they have been swinging freely, as no one expected them to be the major contenders in the West! I guess we can all identify with the fact that it is much, much easier to perform when you're not under pressure. This has been the case with the Cardinals so far.
Let me also add that I was quite astounded to see Dallas last week, give up 16 unanswered pts to Cincy before getting their butt into gear in the late stages of the game. I don't think they'll be able to afford such slackness against the Cardinals.
Lastly, I am fully aware and conscious that there still is a vast difference between these two teams, but not enough for the Cardinals to not cover the spreads here. The books are aware of what the Cardinals are capable of and they've only "offered" 5.5 pts to them. At home, I shall take the points, no worries, as I don't see Dallas winning more than by a FG (if they win that is!)
Not sure why everyone is hating on Dallas all of the sudden. In my eyes they have only had one bad game, that being last week against CIN. They still won. Other than that they dominated CLE and GB (very impressive in my eyes) and even if their D struggled against PHI their O looked unstoppable. Washington is obviously a very good team this year and losing to them, while suprising, is nothing to be ashamed of.
If this is the most fake looking 4-1 record this week take a trip to Buffalo... I usually like your picks but am on the other side this week.
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Not sure why everyone is hating on Dallas all of the sudden. In my eyes they have only had one bad game, that being last week against CIN. They still won. Other than that they dominated CLE and GB (very impressive in my eyes) and even if their D struggled against PHI their O looked unstoppable. Washington is obviously a very good team this year and losing to them, while suprising, is nothing to be ashamed of.
If this is the most fake looking 4-1 record this week take a trip to Buffalo... I usually like your picks but am on the other side this week.
What i see from this game is two high potent offenses that can go either way. I think it will come down to who has the least turnovers. Staying away from it for now.
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What i see from this game is two high potent offenses that can go either way. I think it will come down to who has the least turnovers. Staying away from it for now.
Over 50? Yeah that sounds like the sensible option doesn't it! Two powerful offensive teams which should keep that scoreboard fella hard at work. However, I think this will be a much closer game and I think points should come at a premium. Gun to my head I'd play under!!! But no guns and I am more than happy to steer clear of a total play here. It could be a random score, say 38-35 or 16-10!!! A bit of a crapshoot imo. That's why I decided to plays sides here. Sorry I ain't being much of a help to you mate! Hope you hit though.
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Over 50? Yeah that sounds like the sensible option doesn't it! Two powerful offensive teams which should keep that scoreboard fella hard at work. However, I think this will be a much closer game and I think points should come at a premium. Gun to my head I'd play under!!! But no guns and I am more than happy to steer clear of a total play here. It could be a random score, say 38-35 or 16-10!!! A bit of a crapshoot imo. That's why I decided to plays sides here. Sorry I ain't being much of a help to you mate! Hope you hit though.
with the only difference that it opened at 48. A few books even experimented with 46.5! Now it's up 51. Some of the trusted books I use, don't even have a totals play yet. That's what makes me rather hesitant and cautious about this play. Furthermore, I'm sure Vegas anticipated such action to take place and would have left enough buffer zone for this to fall into.
And finally, yesterday I also said that you take the Over 234 and the Under 33 in NFL, but seriously DO NOT generalize that to extreme. I also emphasised very strongly that every single match up has to be looked at on INDIVIDUAL basis. You need to look at both teams where they're at and how much weight is on that particular game. For instance if Suns were playing Warriors in the 7th game for the NBA title, I don't think playing over 234 would be the smartest thing to do!!! Do you follow what I'm saying?
It's not as easy as a mathematic formula. I said the same thing last night too. I wish it was, but unfortunately for us all it ain't!
All that being said, I'm rooting for a 28-24 finish
Best of luck to you
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with the only difference that it opened at 48. A few books even experimented with 46.5! Now it's up 51. Some of the trusted books I use, don't even have a totals play yet. That's what makes me rather hesitant and cautious about this play. Furthermore, I'm sure Vegas anticipated such action to take place and would have left enough buffer zone for this to fall into.
And finally, yesterday I also said that you take the Over 234 and the Under 33 in NFL, but seriously DO NOT generalize that to extreme. I also emphasised very strongly that every single match up has to be looked at on INDIVIDUAL basis. You need to look at both teams where they're at and how much weight is on that particular game. For instance if Suns were playing Warriors in the 7th game for the NBA title, I don't think playing over 234 would be the smartest thing to do!!! Do you follow what I'm saying?
It's not as easy as a mathematic formula. I said the same thing last night too. I wish it was, but unfortunately for us all it ain't!
All that being said, I'm rooting for a 28-24 finish
No I was never playing totals here. Therefore, if the books I look at don't have that particular play, it doesn't matter to me!
However, here's my tip number 2 (following last night's tip) :
Whenever I make a selection, I first and foremost look at the books, rather than who's playing who (crazy as that might sound!) After studying the books and their movements, only then I start paying attn to the teams or the players involved!
For instance when I make a Tennis selection, I block the side of the screen where it shows the players. Instead I take a long hard look at the prices that are on the board. After that, I start looking at the players and take it from there, comparing and contrasting and analysing the odds as to why, and so forth.
Alot of people, approach sports betting as though it was an office pool tipping competition. I've said it a few times already, This is a business where you don't bet the "crap" team versus the "great" team. You could be the most hard core sports fan out there and keep loosing $$$$ to the books! And you probably know the teams and the players much much better than the books. However, they keep outsmarting you! And you keep banging your head against the wall, screaming outloud, How did those punks screw me again?!
Therefore, when you start capping, try to ignore the teams and how you feel about them. Sports betting is very little about Sport. Betting is the operative word.
Very hard to explain it all in here without writing another wagering tutorial, but hopefully you get the gist of what I'm getting at.
I'm out Good luck to all (including myself )
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No I was never playing totals here. Therefore, if the books I look at don't have that particular play, it doesn't matter to me!
However, here's my tip number 2 (following last night's tip) :
Whenever I make a selection, I first and foremost look at the books, rather than who's playing who (crazy as that might sound!) After studying the books and their movements, only then I start paying attn to the teams or the players involved!
For instance when I make a Tennis selection, I block the side of the screen where it shows the players. Instead I take a long hard look at the prices that are on the board. After that, I start looking at the players and take it from there, comparing and contrasting and analysing the odds as to why, and so forth.
Alot of people, approach sports betting as though it was an office pool tipping competition. I've said it a few times already, This is a business where you don't bet the "crap" team versus the "great" team. You could be the most hard core sports fan out there and keep loosing $$$$ to the books! And you probably know the teams and the players much much better than the books. However, they keep outsmarting you! And you keep banging your head against the wall, screaming outloud, How did those punks screw me again?!
Therefore, when you start capping, try to ignore the teams and how you feel about them. Sports betting is very little about Sport. Betting is the operative word.
Very hard to explain it all in here without writing another wagering tutorial, but hopefully you get the gist of what I'm getting at.
Hi Aussie, do you think the line will move greater than+5.5? I can still get 5.5 at TAB and the other 2 books I use are at 5. Not sure to jump on it now or later tomorrow incase the line moves.
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Hi Aussie, do you think the line will move greater than+5.5? I can still get 5.5 at TAB and the other 2 books I use are at 5. Not sure to jump on it now or later tomorrow incase the line moves.
Hi Aussie, do you think the line will move greater than+5.5? I can still get 5.5 at TAB and the other 2 books I use are at 5. Not sure to jump on it now or later tomorrow incase the line moves.
i was thinking the same thing, but then it went from 5 to 4.5 at one of my books and its still there... but its stayed at 6.5 at betfair, at 1.82 though, so i took that
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Quote Originally Posted by NOMOREPPARLAYS:
Hi Aussie, do you think the line will move greater than+5.5? I can still get 5.5 at TAB and the other 2 books I use are at 5. Not sure to jump on it now or later tomorrow incase the line moves.
i was thinking the same thing, but then it went from 5 to 4.5 at one of my books and its still there... but its stayed at 6.5 at betfair, at 1.82 though, so i took that
NMP, I think this is the same as the case of what we saw yesterday in College Football with Clemson v Wake. Yes, the consensus (82%)is all over Dallas, but the big bad boys of MrOPC are all over Zona and the sharp money is actually driving the line down. I'd take it now, as I think by kick off this might even end up being a FG the difference! But we'll see ...
I suggest don't take it if it drops to 4 or lower
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NMP, I think this is the same as the case of what we saw yesterday in College Football with Clemson v Wake. Yes, the consensus (82%)is all over Dallas, but the big bad boys of MrOPC are all over Zona and the sharp money is actually driving the line down. I'd take it now, as I think by kick off this might even end up being a FG the difference! But we'll see ...
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