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Trends & Things Week 3 2008 NFL

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Captain
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Posted: #1
hey everyone,
 
RECAP OF WEEK 2
 
A review  of last week's edition before moving on to week 3 ...
 
By focusing  on what I perceived to be the single strongest trend of the week and not getting sidetracked by a myriad of other stats , both the Underdog trend pick and the favorite trend pick found the winning side .
The focus for the trend pick selection remains the underdog pick , but as week 1 showed sometimes the best trend available is laying the chalk .
 
Underdog Trend picks are now 2-2
and the Favorite trend pick 1-0
 
This was the winning trend >
 
Cleveland is the Underdog Trend Pick
Cleveland is 15-2 ATS after allowing 27 points or more
Cleveland is 10-1 ATS vs a team with winning record
 
As for the favorite NY Giants were the choice with >>
 
"NY Giants are  the FAV trend selection" with >>
NY Giants are 14-2 ATS vs NFC
NY Giants are 19-7 ATS last 26 road games
( this week playing St Louis on the road )
St Louis is 1-10 ATS vs a team with a winning record
St Louis is 0-4 ATS last 4 meetings
 
You can be certain that with the NY Giants now being 15-2 ATS vs NFC ...this trend may be the best candidate come Oct 5 when NY faces Seattle after their bye . They will not however be on the road and we'll see what else shows up when the time comes .
 
 
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Posted: #2
On a personal note...what kept me away from this overwhelming
trend favoring NYG and going against St Louis was my reluctance to bet against a road favorite of 7 or more .
Such a trend showed up 10 times last year with the RF > 7 going 2-8 ATS .
Overall , this trend is  now 39-63-3 ATS ( 39 % ) since 1997 .
 
It didn't show up on week 1 and there are no RF's this week other than Dallas @ GB and only by a field goal ...
 
Week 4 presents some opportunitites to exploit this long term trend when Denver visits KC where the home team is 12-3 ATS since 2000 .
 Denver may be favored by 7 or more then just as Buffalo may be @ St Louis or San Diego coul be be @ Oakland.
Obviously , week 3 results will decide by just how much these road teams will be favored by ...
 
Another trend I  featured on behalf of the favorites on week 2 which was undeniably very strong involved New England and the NY Jets ...>>>
New England >>
NY Jets are 2-13-1 ATS last 16 home openers
NYJ is 0-9 ATS @ home vs NE
This trend will naturally  not surface again until next year , but NY Jets are now 2-14-1 ATS in their home openers spanning 17 years and New England ( Tom Brady or not ) is now a perfect 10-0 ATS since losing 10-31 @ NY back in 12/27/98
 
A play against OAK was scratched due to the supremacy of the road team in the Oak-KC matchup now a stronger 16-4 ATS . With KC now 0-11 SU from last year , we may not see them as favorites for quite a while barring an upset or two along the way until they face Miami on Dec 21 st .
 
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Posted: #3
Having Atlanta open as 3 point favorites and with the line bet up to 5.5 in favor of the Falcons tells you all you need to know about KC 's state of affairs .
 
Again, the game against Denver @ home for KC might prove a worthwhile bet as not only is the Home team 12-3 ATS in this rivalry , but KC is 9-1 ATS  @ home vs a team with double revenge ...That's week 4
 
The last dog candidate I featured , and a bad one was
Detroit  >>
"Detroit is 20-6 ATS ( 77 % ) @ home with double revenge "
 ( playing GB who embarassed them last year both games 37-26 & 34-13 ) "
Well, needless to say some teams are a glutton for punishment .
Interestingly , Detroit took the lead in that game midway through the fouth quarter , but John Kitna ensured that the double revenge became a triple revenge next time they meet .
 
Make no mistake about it ...The score was reflective of GB's dominance over Detroit
Green Bay is now 14-2 ( 6-0 ) SU last 16 meetings vs Detroit and that trend proved more important with a spread of only a field goal in the end .
With GB being 12-3 ATS @ home vs Detroit , it doesn't get any easier for the Lions come December 28 when they meet again .
 
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Captain
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Posted: #4
The over trend of GB being 15-3 last 18 to the OVER and 12 -2 OVER vs NFC   is pretty remarkable ...
Now the OVER is 16-3 in GB games overall and 13-2 vs NFC .
GB is 8-0 Over last 8 games on grass
 
73 combined points were scored in the GB-Det game eclipsing the total by over 26 points !
In the meantime , Dallas ( GB next opponent ) finished playing in one of MNF's highest scoring games ever , eclipsing the line by 32 points !
 
Now , with GB playing Dallas in week 3 , we have the Over trend screaming for attention every which way you look ...
 
besides Green Bay's torrid trends to the Over , we have Dallas , again coming off a shootout and with these trends as well >>
 
Over is 13-5-1-in Cowboys vs team with a winning record
Over is 13-5-2 in Cowboys last 20 road games
Over is 15-7-2 in Cowboys last 24 road games following a SU win
Over is 6-2-1  in Dallas last 9 games in Sept
 
 Also : Last 4 meetings between these teams have gone over !
 
Dallas has the # 2 ranked offense complimenting  GB's 6th ranked offense .
It looks like a no-brainer and these two teams averaging 35 points per game ( 36 & 34 ) should easily eclipse a 51 point total
 
Well, more on that later ...
 
 
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Posted: #5
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Week 3 Trends & Things from last year >>
 
 
Last year's Favs & Dogs results for  week 1 through 3  >>>
according to covers  lines
 
2007 NFL
Week 1 : Favs  9 - 6 - 1 ATS
Week 2 : Favs  3 - 12 - 1 ATS
Week 3 : Favs   5 -9 - 2 ATS
weeks 1-3 : Favs : 17 - -27 - 4 ATS
 
2008 NFL
 
Week 1 : Favs 10 - 6  ATS
Week 2 : Favs 8 - 5- 2  ATS
Week 3 : Favs  ???
 
There were some very close spreads this week , but as usual
I am using the lines in covers to remain consitent ...
 
They show 5 teams favored by a single point : Tennessee, Indianapolis, Washington, New England, Denver
Of these,  4 of them count towards the favorite covering with Denver as a push
 
How many of you had Denver and Tennessee as favorites ?
 
However , if you were to consider Cincinnati, NY Jets , and San Diego as favs then you would have a reversal of 5 - 8 - 2
 
There were 5 unquestionable favorites that covered :
 
Indianapolis, Green Bay, New York Giants , Tampa Bay, and Arizona .
I'll go with covers lines as usual....
 
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Posted: #6
 
Unders went 8-7 week 2
after going 9-7 week 1
 
Unders leding 17-14 ytd
 
****************************
Revisiting the battles between the AFC & NFC conference >>>
 
Week 1 :  4 teams from NFC on the road vs AFC teams
result : NFC wins 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS  
Note: two monster upsets with both Carolina @ Chicago winning on the road vs SD & Indi respectively
 
Week 2 :  2 games >
Indi @ Minnesota   AFC wins SU & ATS
Miami @ Arizona   NFC wins SU & ATS
 
YTD : NFC  leading AFC  4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS
note: favs have covered the spread or lost the game outright ...
 
Week 3 : >>>
 
KC @ Atlanta -5
Cincy @ NYG -13.5
NO @ Denver -5.5
Pitt @ Phil -3
 
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Prospect
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Posted: #7
love this info...thanks for all the hard work
 
Veteran
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Posted: #8
Thanks for your hard work, it is greatly appreciated!
 
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Posted: #9
They show 5 teams favored by a single point : Tennessee, Indianapolis, Washington, New England, Denver
Of these,  4 of them count towards the favorite covering with Denver as a push
 
This was fascinating, Roberto. I don't recall a week like this where one's record of favorites vs dogs could be so affected by the line differences a book might have. For instance, my local had Wash at a pick, Tennessee as a dog. But many books had otherwise, as you noted.
 
 
I noticed that divisional dogs, assuming one had the Jets as an underdog, went 4-3-1 (San Diego was the push) after going a desultory 2-6 in week one.
 
Winners:  SF (SU) ....OAK  (SU)....Cle (lost by 4 getting 6.5)....Phi (lost by 4 getting 6.5)
 
Losers:   Detroit , Atlanta, NYJ  (again, assuming they were a dog, which they were in many spots on Sunday)
 
Divisional Dogs Week 3:   Houston, Miami, STL, Jax, Cle
 
 
 
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Posted: #10
I noticed I didn't really give any trends LOL, but I thought it might be worthwhile to note for your stats.
 
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Posted: #11
Any leans thus far?  Thinking the following at first glance:
 
AZ
Phi
Chi
Car
Dal
 
Captain
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Posted: #12
Bet Tracker week 3  ..Tuesday Sept 16
 
The following feature monitors wagering activity at multiple online sportsbooks. The "betting percentages" represent actual wagers placed on each game at the participating sportsbooks
 
Buffalo ....79 % spread - 9 / -9.5
Denver  ...76 % spread - 4 ? - 5.5
 
Atlanta  ...74 %  spread -4 / -5
NY giants .....71 % spread - 13 / - 13.5
Indianapolis ...70 % spread - 6 / - 5.5
Dallas ....70 % spread -3 / -3
 
spreads shown range from open to current
according to sportsinsights data
 
note: Indianapolis is the only team showing a reverse spread change  from the group .
 Possible that solid money has been put on Jacksonville @ + 6 while the bulk of the bets have gone  Indianapolis way thus far.
 
Week 2 ..the early leader was Pittsburgh , but NY Giants took over that spot on Sunday , followed closely by New Orleans and Kansas City
Week one the early leader was Dallas with Cincy finishing 1st on Sunday
Pittsburgh lost , though the NY Giants were the right choice ...
a reversal from week 1 where Dallas easily covered , but Cincy was a loser ...
 
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Posted: #13
The top of this thread is a review of last week ...
No selection has been made for week 3 ....
I relaize it looks like Cleveland is the choice ..., though that was from week 2 ...
 
That being said , Cleveland is now 11-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record ( vs Baltimore 1-0 this week )
The Ravens ( unlikely as any team to be a winning team going into week 3 ) are the benefactors of a victory over Cincinnati week 1 and a postponed game they were expected to lose on week 2 .
 
Baltimore still boasts of a 3-11 ATS record against the AFC and a 4-14 ATS the last 18 games .
Clevleand is also 5-0 ATS vs Baltimore
 
Bettors will consider the brutal battle vs division rival Pittsburgh Sunday night , and the extra rest afforded to Baltimore preparing for this game ...
Despite that , Clevland showed heart in that smash-mouth game vs the Stleerers, while Cincy proved to be an easier conquest for the Ravens when Tennessee shut the Bengal's floundering offense in Cicinnati.
The line has moved from the key # 3 to as low as -1 in favor of the Ravens ...
I think Cleveland is a strong choice for Underdog trend pick of the week yet again
 
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Posted: #14
The Over is 12-1-1 in Denver's last 14 home games
the Over is also 7-0 last 7 games involving New Orleans .
 
The total between ihese two teams is ranging between 51 - 51 .5
One of two games this week featuring a high total of over 50 ...
the other game being Dallas - GB
 
A review of games involving such high totals in the past would be helpful .
A quick look only from last year shows that NO - Indi had a total line of 52.5 at the opening game last year with the game total falling on 51 going Under
Next game with a line over 50 was on week 4 between
 New England & Cincinnati . The total was 54 then with the result being 47 points again going under
Next up was New England - Dallas with the total at 52 ..and the game resulting in a whooping 75 points ...Over
Week 8 NE played Indi with the toal at 57 ...final score netted only 44 points .Under
Week 11  was NO vs Hou @ 50 ...but only amounted to 33 points Under
Week 12 : Houvs Clev @ 52...scoring only 44 Under
week 12 : Phil vs NE @ 52...scoring 59 for an Over
Week 13 : GB vs Dallas @ 51.5 ...scoring 64 points for another Over
Week 13 : Clev vs Arizona @ 52.5 ..scoring 48  Under
week 14 : Dallas vs Detroit @ 50.5 ...scoring 55  Over
 
So we have 6 - 4 favoring the Under last year...
 
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Posted: #15
Recent Trends
Cleveland:
  • Under is 8-0 in CLE last 8 games on grass.
  • Under is 8-0 in CLE last 8 games overall.
  • CLE are 11-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Baltimore:
  • Under is 7-1 in BAL last 8 games in Week 3.
  • BAL are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 vs. AFC.
  • BAL are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
Head to Head:
  • Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #16
Clevleand is also 5-0 ATS vs Baltimore /Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
 
I am a little confused by the discrepency or does this mean to say that even though the home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings cleveland has won the last 5 (3 in Clev and 2 in Balt) ATS?  Cheers!
 
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Posted: #17
I dont have the numbers in front of me but betting against Balt at home will get you killed they are a great home cover
 
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Posted: #18
Never safe to bet against Baltimore @ home I can tell you that :D
 
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Posted: #19
 Nice post Roberto   , I'LL lay off the Cleveland/Baltimore game just to be safe..
 
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Posted: #20
Thanks for the info. on Clev@Balt.  We have two young QB's that will make mistakes, the difference this year is red zone scoring.
IMO both squads wil be looking down field for some long plays.
I'll play the Over,maybe a couple of times .
 
GL to you RF  thanks again
 
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Posted: #21
Roberto,
 
More on the GB/Dallas total that just the last four games going over.  Since 93 - Dallas/GB is 10-1 over.
 
Captain
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Posted: #22
 
Bet Tracker week 3 :
 
Tuesday Sept 16 >>>
 
Buffalo ....79 % spread - 9 / -9.5
Denver  ...76 % spread - 4 / - 5.5
 
Atlanta  ...74 %  spread -4 / -5
NY giants .....71 % spread - 13 / - 13.5
Indianapolis ...70 % spread - 6 / - 5.5
Dallas ....70 % spread -3 / -3
 
 Thursday early
 
Atlanta  ....77 % spread - 4 / - 5.5  Up
Buffalo  .....76 % spread - 9 / - 9.5  down
Dallas ....75 % spread - 3 / - 3     Steady
 
Carolina ....74 % spread + 3 / + 3.5  Up
Denver ....73 % spread -4 / - 5.5  Down
Philadelphia...73 % spread - 3 / - 3.5  Up
NY Giants ....71 % spread - 13 / - 13.5 steady
 
Note : Indianapolis now @ 59 % spread -6 / - 5
from tuesday , we now see the percentage going towards Jacksonville ...
These are the percentages from spotsinsights ..and corresponding opening / current spreads...
the Carolina / Minnesota game shows increased interest in Carolina but the line shows reverse movement ...
Is the bulk of the bets going towards the Panthers due to the quarterback change , but the bigger $ going towards Minnesota ( with a vote of confidence for Ferrote over Jackson ? )
 
 
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by WilliamMunny:

I dont have the numbers in front of me but betting against Balt at home will get you killed they are a great home cover

well, going with winning picks #'s Baltimore is 14-9-1 ATS last 3 years @ home , and 4-3-1 ATS last year

while Cleveland went 11-10-3 ATS on the road , and 4-4-1 ATS last year

While Baltimore has always had a great defense , we can't judge this year's unit on one game alone...given that it was against the 31 st ranked offense in the NFL after two games of play ( gasp ) ...the Cincinnati Bengals .

 On the other hand , the Bengals went against this year's ( after two games ) # 1 & # 2 ranked defenses in the NFL : Ravens & Titans .

Unfortunately , for Cincinnati , they will be then facing the # 3 ranked defense in the NFL in the NY Giants in week 3

As for Baltimore , they can enjoy the # 1 ranked defense going this week against Cleveland # 30 th ranked offense ...but let us remember that the Browns had to face the 10th ranked defense in the Dallas Cowboys and 4th ranked defense in the Pittsburgh Steelers ...going into this game ...

Frankly , a little early for all this rankings talk .

But , for all its worth ...Jeff Sagarin of USA today ...has Baltimore as a home team facing the Cleveland Browns with more than a touchdown differential in their ranking  in favor of the home team ...Ravens

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Posted: #24
thanks for the info RF, great stuff here.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #25
Roberto..  Is there any trends for how teams perform the following week after either winning or losing on Monday Night?

So far this year it's been:

Week 1 MNF Winner:  GB over MIN
                                  Den over Oak
week 2 Result: GB WIN    MIN LOSE
                      DEN WIN  OAK WIN

Week 2 MNF Winner: DAL over PHI
week 3 results:  
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