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Author: [Streak Survivor] Topic: What is the best spot to start fading Streakers picks?
GreenMachine22 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 11/5/2013 5:04:35 PM
...is it 12 wins
13
14
15
16
17?

I realize that hypothetically one could pick 25 winners in a row, however, the likelihood of reaching a number over 17 is relatively slim (see STREAK SURVIVOR ALLSTAR leaderboard).  Only 40 people have streaked past 17 in covers' history.  The only problem with this is the unpredictability of when each individual will post their plays...and trying to catch their play in time to place your own wager on the opposite.

Maybe this is a bad idea?  It seems way too easy to me.  Wait until someone makes it to 15 in a row, then bet the opposite of whatever they pick in a progression - until they lose/you win.

I would be absolutely shocked if COVERS was not doing this already. 




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MRJLX
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#2
Posted: 11/5/2013 5:21:44 PM
quick glance shows me that 71 Covers members have made it past 17 or more.... 78 failed to pass after 16 wins.
just recently 2 Covers members had 16 wins... and lost on their 17th try. 

so about 47% make hit the $1K mark after hitting 16 in a row. 

this has been on a thread awhile ago... is to go against their pick after 17 in a row....since only 10 members have hit 20 in a row.

as far as timing is concern... most Streak members "wait" for the right time to make their winning pick so that makes it unpredictable. 

being one of the 40 people... I'll share my experience...

when it was my turn after 17... I played the next day...to me.. waiting too long will create doubt it deciding a pick.
I lost on my 19th try  ... but I wouldn't change my pick....
of course luck is needed.  

so no.. I don't think its a bad idea... just when....
hope this helps and good luck. 











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#3
Posted: 11/7/2013 6:55:25 PM
If you wait until 17, it's VERY worth it - IMO.  The problem is, I don't have that much patience - & not many people make it to 17.  In fact, not many people are making it past 12 these days.  Again, maybe I'm too lax in my judgment but I am seriously considering starting my chase at or near 12.

The only major hangup I have had is trying to catch these plays in time...
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#4
Posted: 11/8/2013 8:19:12 PM
only one player at 16...terry32... and it looks like he/she is taking their time for the 17th pick which ends on the 11/9... so you will see a pick Sat or they will lose their streak. 
streak pickers of 16 or more tend to pick earlier before gametime. 


I tend to follow Monthly streak leaders with 5 days to go.. b/c they are forced to pick and $1K is on the line...
look me up on the month of May 2012 leaderboard and it does matter picking each day toward the end.

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#5
Posted: 11/10/2013 5:48:20 PM
Terry32 is proving he has got what it takes...at 17 now.  Glad I missed his last play!!

I will bet (to win): $500 against his 18th pick

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#6
Posted: 11/11/2013 6:50:19 PM
Terry32 seems to be taking his/her time in doing the picks... so looks like football will be the next pick.. 

I did follow the pick of Iowa (-16)
not sure about #17...

good luck 
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fcksptbtng
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#7
Posted: 11/17/2013 6:22:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GreenMachine22:

Terry32 is proving he has got what it takes...at 17 now.  Glad I missed his last play!!

I will bet (to win): $500 against his 18th pick



keep betting against him..n see where that takes u
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Mark_The_Narc
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#8
Posted: 11/17/2013 9:01:45 AM
I like the fade MRJLX against terry32 system myself.  Seriously MRJLX this guy is on with his f-ball picks and during NCAAF season betting against his survivor pick is playing against the odds I'd say.
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#9
Posted: 11/18/2013 8:34:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mark_The_Narc:

I like the fade MRJLX against terry32 system myself.  Seriously MRJLX this guy is on with his f-ball picks and during NCAAF season betting against his survivor pick is playing against the odds I'd say.

@Marc..you are better off fading me  ...
. I've been following Terry32. 

just spouting out numbers of past members that have done streaks 17 or more... for this thread sake. 




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#10
Posted: 11/19/2013 1:55:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fcksptbtng:



keep betting against him..n see where that takes u



Where will it take me? ...to the BANK!  It may not be immediate but it is inevitable.  No one has won more than 23 in a row and I am betting this guy won't come close to that. 

$500 against #18...I lost, he won
$1000 against #19,
$2000 against #20,
$4000 against #21,
$8,000 against #22
...he will not make it to 23.
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#11
Posted: 11/23/2013 3:25:14 PM
$1000 on ARIZONA +19!!!!! Here we go.......
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#12
Posted: 11/23/2013 5:55:40 PM
well.. if you have the funds to go against after 17... you will do well. 

looks like Arizona will cover... and might win straight up! 

some props for Terry32 going 18 in a row... only 30 people have hit that mark on Covers..

@Greenmachine22.... hopefully the next streaker won't take as long.  

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#13
Posted: 11/24/2013 12:19:22 PM
ARIZONA wins straight up...Damn, wish I would have sprinkled some on the +445 moneyline!! 


Thank you Terry32 for your participation.
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#14
Posted: 11/28/2013 12:04:28 PM
This is a great idea that we have discussed on Serious Streak Survivor Strategies thread like MRJLX said. It's definitely profitable but like you said @GreenMachine you have to time right. I haven't done this faithfully but I'm gonna start following it more closely.

The $64,000 question is at what number. 12 is a good number but I think I would prefer a higher number like 14 or 15 because a huge percentage lose going for that #17 pick.
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#15
Posted: 11/30/2013 6:55:47 PM
Smoothd20 and I (and others) have discussed this since last year when is a good time to start fading. 

what gets me is how many members uses the coin flip theory to determine the odd of getting so many (lets say 21) in a row. 
coin doesn't know weather.
coin doesn't know players or coaches
coin doesn't know team.
all the coin knows is jack. 

the bottom line is... if you have a chance to make 17 in a row (the 1st tier of $$)... would you flip a coin to determine your choice?

you could ask almost every Covers member with streaks longer than 17... if they flipped a coin for the 17+ pick. 
I'm sure most of them said no. 

I'm one of them. 

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=1010&sub=101345328
its been over a year but can't believe its over 30K views on that thread. 

SmoothD and Crushalot are very supportive of cover members that hit milestone streaks. 
the bottom line is to crush the bookies. 
 








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#16
Posted: 12/1/2013 9:06:51 PM
I believe an average of three people make it to 17 each year...at that number, you have exceptional odds. 




Agreed, CRUSH the books...repeatedly
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#17
Posted: 12/6/2013 11:40:46 PM
Thank you MissDallas1 for making this easy
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#18
Posted: 12/26/2013 12:19:34 PM
I am experimenting a little with this fade. I am running a 3 line Labby. The first line is 9, the second line is for 10 and the third line is for 11. Any streak past 11 starts again on the first line and progresses through each line accordingly. My base unit is 1% of my bankroll($10 in my case). Working off of a base bet of $10 I am up $68.60 after 5 days. The overall record of the 9 and up streakers over this period is 18-24, so 24-18 for me.  Betting straight I would be up $42, but using the Labby I am up $68.80. At this point my maximum bet is still only $16.  I will reset the lines if my max bet reaches 4 or 5% of my bankroll depending on how I feel about the way things are going at the time or, of course, if the lines clear themselves. I will try to post daily updates on the progress. I think as long as this overall record stays around 50% I will prosper using the Labby. Any opinions are appreciated.
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#19
Posted: 12/26/2013 12:28:02 PM
A couple of things I forgot to mention is I will always reset my lines at 1% of wherever the bankroll is at at the time. So as it grows so does the base bet. The challenging part of this is being on top of the picks as they come in. So far I haven't missed any. I'm sure as time goes on it will happen occasionally, but maybe the winners and losers will equal out. When opposite sides are picked I just lay off to save juice unless the lines have changed where a middle could occur.
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#20
Posted: 1/1/2014 5:57:51 PM
I've been spending some time thinking of ways to use the survivor contest to make picks.

I came up with an idea to fade players who have made at least 500 picks and whose longest streak has been 6 games. I decided to start fading them after they've hit their 5th win. I'm still crunching the numbers but so far it looks pretty promising.

Would you feel comfortable fading these players going forward or do you think that past performance wouldn't = future success.

At the time I started collecting data I had 349 players with 500 + picks whose longest streak was 6. I went back to find their records after 5 game streak and so far these are my #'s.

159 players

W= 349   L= 945

so it's hitting 73.03%


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#21
Posted: 1/4/2014 3:13:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by htz:

I've been spending some time thinking of ways to use the survivor contest to make picks.

I came up with an idea to fade players who have made at least 500 picks and whose longest streak has been 6 games. I decided to start fading them after they've hit their 5th win. I'm still crunching the numbers but so far it looks pretty promising.

Would you feel comfortable fading these players going forward or do you think that past performance wouldn't = future success.

At the time I started collecting data I had 349 players with 500 + picks whose longest streak was 6. I went back to find their records after 5 game streak and so far these are my #'s.

159 players

W= 349   L= 945

so it's hitting 73.03%


Interesting stats, but the question is, who has the funds to bet against all those bets? Are you tracking 159 players a day? It'll be hard to pare this down to a manageable betting outcome due to all the players you are tracking, no?

Let me know if I'm missing anything in the details?
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#22
Posted: 1/4/2014 7:02:31 PM
I have a list of 349 players, (some haven't made a pick in months). i've decided to change it up a bit and start fading those players who have won 7 in a row. (i'll fade starting on 8th play of streak)

It may seem like there would be tons of plays but not many are on a 7 game streak at the same time.

Today's play was wyoming +2.5 ncaab

Maybe i'll start a thread to make it easier to follow.


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#23
Posted: 1/5/2014 9:13:37 AM
Start a thread, and track it, see if it works.

BOL.
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#24
Posted: 1/5/2014 9:15:22 AM
Today's play was wyoming +2.5 ncaab
____________________________________

Yikes....lol, they lost by 3. Close shave!
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#25
Posted: 1/5/2014 9:17:37 AM
Another idea that comes to mind is tracking your fading losing streaks using this theory...if it's not more than 3 games then it won't kill your bankroll if you have a good money management system.

If it takes 5 losses or more for you to get a win, then that's asking a lot.

BOL.
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