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Serious Streak Survivor Strategies

Forum: Streak Survivor Page 326 of 554 «  324 325 326 327 328   »
Author: [Streak Survivor] Topic: Serious Streak Survivor Strategies
edwardglennx3 PM edwardglennx3
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quote#8126
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:54:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by smoothd20:

You have a good system Czech I just think that sometimes you need to throw in other factors. I like using a mix but at the end of the day sometimes you just have to go with what the numbers tell you and play the percentages. 

I couldn't agree more Smooth. i can't ride line theories. they really do mean nothing. ON any given day, any given team can win. Including the 2011 Colts. Sharps or Busters don't have a say so on who wins, Stats say everything. History tells everything. Lines tell nothing but who everyone is betting on. You look at the whip, the era, batting averages against the starter, the bullpen, who's cold, who's hot, the past history between starter vs lineup. The public(busters) looks at none of this stuff. If you bet blind without looking at the real info, then you are a buster,(the public). pretty much betting on familiarity. People bet the yankees, the red sox, all the teams that sound good from there name. If the Yankees changed there name, i guarantee you they would not be a public play any more, just for the simple fact, the public would not know who this new team is. It is not like a game of craps where you can bet with the house since the house always wins. The house in this case makes there money off the juice we lay.
edwardglennx3 PM edwardglennx3
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quote#8127
Posted: 4/30/2012 6:12:00 PM
JUMP on ATL early while the line is only 4. Rondo is out for tomorrows game.

ATL will cover easy
Trax PM Trax
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quote#8128
Posted: 4/30/2012 6:27:36 PM
Thinking of taking that Heat game for W13, just not sure if I want Heat -9.5, or the unders, decisions decisions.
Trax PM Trax
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quote#8129
Posted: 4/30/2012 6:31:57 PM
Ok so the wife talked me into the Heat -9.5 for W13 & the hoodie, so if I lose I'm blaming her, lol.
crushalot22 PM crushalot22
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quote#8130
Posted: 4/30/2012 7:00:45 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Trax:

Ok so the wife talked me into the Heat -9.5 for W13 & the hoodie, so if I lose I'm blaming her, lol.

 

    Good Luck.  You will like it.        

Plisskin76 PM Plisskin76
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quote#8131
Posted: 4/30/2012 7:08:35 PM

On heat U186 and Pacers U187.5

TB U7

As you can tell i will be playing a lot of unders!

 

Plisskin76 PM Plisskin76
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quote#8132
Posted: 4/30/2012 7:12:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by edwardglennx3:

PICK OF THE DAY:

Under 9 Tex @ Tor

Iliked the under also,but could only get 8.5. Line was changing, Darvish was getting cheaper and total went up to 9 most places,interesting.Took under on streak. see how this game shakes out.

smoothd20 PM smoothd20
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quote#8133
Posted: 4/30/2012 7:37:28 PM
The Sharps are over San Diego and the Busters are on Milwaukee. I think I'm siding with the Busters as my hometown Padres are horrible and the Sharps have been slumping bad lately. I may be wrong but Milwaukee is the play tonight. Go with the Brewers to cash in!
edwardglennx3 PM edwardglennx3
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quote#8134
Posted: 4/30/2012 7:52:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Plisskin76:

Iliked the under also,but could only get 8.5. Line was changing, Darvish was getting cheaper and total went up to 9 most places,interesting.Took under on streak. see how this game shakes out.


I got lucky and hit refresh and got it at 8.5 as well!!!

i say lucky because of -120 i got it at +105 instead!! i would have it all the way down to 8
CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#8135
Posted: 4/30/2012 8:16:57 PM
Guys I've bustered in up so far 3-5 on my system plays last 2 days. Shoulda been 4-4 if not for the greatest crash-and-burn in NBA playoff history by Memphis las night. 

One play tonight for me this is a progressive and steady line move in opposition to the boosteres. 

OKC under 


Plisskin76 PM Plisskin76
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quote#8136
Posted: 4/30/2012 8:46:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by edwardglennx3:


I got lucky and hit refresh and got it at 8.5 as well!!!

i say lucky because of -120 i got it at +105 instead!! i would have it all the way down to 8

Yes,but 9 is a tie at 9 and 8.5 is a loser if they score 9. Afew places here in vegas were at 9 and if i coulda got it a 9 -120 i woulda played it,i still almost played it.

Are you saying you woulda played it at 8?

game looks good so far.

Plisskin76 PM Plisskin76
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quote#8137
Posted: 4/30/2012 8:52:05 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by smoothd20:

The Sharps are over San Diego and the Busters are on Milwaukee. I think I'm siding with the Busters as my hometown Padres are horrible and the Sharps have been slumping bad lately. I may be wrong but Milwaukee is the play tonight. Go with the Brewers to cash in!

Under may be way to go!

CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#8138
Posted: 4/30/2012 8:54:05 PM
Yo Edward not to argue with you but your philosophy differs a lot from mine. 

My theory is that knowing all those stats etc is great but someone out there knows them better than you do and is betting a lot more on them than you are. Vegas adjusts lines according to these sharp players and we have an opportunity to side with them. 

Of course sharps don't determine who's winning, but your stats and history don't either. Anyone can win 1 night including the '11 Colts, but not over time. 

I play poker for a living and consider myself pretty sharp at it but I lose to busters on any given night. Sometimes even 3 or 4 nights in a row. But at the end of the year I can't be down, any more than they can be up, on average. 

My system may go 3-7 first 10 games but 10 is not a sample size. No one in this thread will know if it's any good until they see it over a couple HUNDRED games. That's why I speak logic to you guys and not just plays. 

Whether we catch a fish tonight or not is not the issue, it's whether we know HOW to fish that I'm talking about. 
CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#8139
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:07:47 PM
One word about that Memphis game last night also:

I posted Memphis as the sharp play last night and still think it was the right play, even though I didn't originally like it and should have disqualified it under rule 3. 

Regardless of that Memphis raped Clips for 4/5 of that game. Even Charlotte coulda covered with a 22 pt lead in the 4th quarter and no sharp in the world coulda predicted the amazing collapse by Memphis. 

If I was looking to put it all on 1 sharp play I'd be risking disaster but luckily there's always a game tomorrow. In this thing for the long haul


smoothd20 PM smoothd20
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quote#8140
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:09:19 PM
Keep doing what you do Czech. You're bringing some valuable information to the $25 Dime Club and we're happy to have you as a member! 
smoothd20 PM smoothd20
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quote#8141
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:12:17 PM
Hey Czech what's your take on the Milwaukee-San Diego game. I went against the Sharps and took Milwaukee or maybe the Sharps are on them. That's another game that's hard to read. Line is all over the place but I took Milwaukee on the Streak and on Bovada because the Padres are horrible with a bad defense and no hitters. Thoughts?
CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#8142
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:21:23 PM
Things will correct themselves eventually unless the busters know more than Vegas does. Why was Miami the same line as other night after that raping in game 1? And indi same thing? 

Everyone was on Miami and Orlando and Dallas tonight, because of how game 1 went. Is it really that easy? Vegas isn't aware of the scores from game 1? 
smoothd20 PM smoothd20
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quote#8143
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:22:53 PM
INTENSE BATTLE UNDERWAY FOR HOODVILLE!
_____________________________
Trax and his troops are waging an intense battle to conquer HOODVILLE. HOODVILLE'S Army is putting up a stiff resistance but Trax's boys have a firm resolve to avenge Bama's demise. Trax is armed with Miami Heat minus 9.5. Stay tuned as the battle is reaching it's climax in this bloody War!
CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#8144
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:23:40 PM
Hey smooth I haven't analyzed the game but if you say the line is all over the place that it doesn't really qualify under the system parameters. 

It may or may not be possible to decipher lines like that but I don't try to. I only look for progressive lines that go in the same direction. 
CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#8145
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:29:32 PM
Hey SmoothD I just checked your game, again this is close to a pk but I see the line moved towards Mil but the public consensus is on Mil also so the line move could be public related. 

I really have no take on the game. 
CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#8146
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:32:13 PM
Also I don't know garbage about baseball unfortunately 
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quote#8147
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:36:41 PM
I do really well on NFL and did quite well on NBA reg season. Hit the toilet last 2 days but hey it was game 1 of the playoffs so I'm chalking it up to variance. 

I like hockey and tend to bet it when I shouldn't. There are sharp plays most likely in every sport including baseball for sure but haven't ever gotten into baseball. 

I know baseball is a good sport for stat guys but none of that stuff really interests me too much for the reasons I mentioned before. I'll never know them as well as the sharps so why try when I can follow the sharps instead. 
CZECH_RAZOR PM CZECH_RAZOR
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quote#8148
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:45:33 PM
Okay so Mia just covered, albeit by 1/2 a pt. it wasn't nearly the blowout the first game was. Let's see what happens w Dallas and Orl
edwardglennx3 PM edwardglennx3
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quote#8149
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:57:57 PM
I agree with you a lot Czech. and i didn't mean any disrespect by my post either. hope you didn't take it that way. 58% works to make money!!! systems don't work over night. i stay away from NBA its becoming more and more setup like wrestling. a lot more things seem fixed. NFL is my money maker and i do that by watching and knowing who is who. If i lose my mortgage, i want it to be on me, and not because i decided to ride some sharps. if that were the case, i would pay for there picks. Systems work for the pure fact that you can get them above the 55% W-L ratio. I like your system and it tells you exactly who the sharps are on. I cross checked 2 games that i was on to see if it played in effect as well. One of them was the opening game for the Astros at Cincinatti about 4 days ago. and the other was Arizona at Miami yesterday. both of them being humongous underdogs and i could not see why. so i checked your system and sure enough sharps were on em. BUT, no matter if a system is picking 90% i will NEVER go against what i see in stats. Stats are a fact. They tell you who is better. If you found a way to cross your system with stats i believe you would have a 70%+ W-L percentage. any given sunday as they say, any team, any place. knowing stats help reduce you from picking that any given sunday though
crushalot22 PM crushalot22
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quote#8150
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:58:36 PM
Nice job Trax!     Enjoy that hoodie! 
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