my ratings vs vegas line week 7 (stats, systems, writeups etc inside)

What do you mean by close to a group that is 0-7 ATS for PSU?

MTSU @ FIU -2
Play: MTSU +2

First of all, these small road faves of less than 3 pts and small road dogs of less than 5 pts that are ranked better by 31 places or less are 19-2 ATS so far this season. the only losses were iowa state in overtime at unlv and unlv last week at colorado state after having the lead and the cover until 9 secs left in the game.

both teams are 2-3 on the season and in a battle of 2-3 teams, the home team is usually favored by 3+. and when it is not the case, the message is clear. the road team is the better team. when the home 2-3 team is favored by less than three or underdog to another 2-3 team, the home team is 0-10 SU and ATS.

the strength of schedule is similar for both teams but middle tennessee state has already played 3 conference games, losing two to the conference leaders troy and arkansas state and winning one against the preseason favorite to win the conference, florida atlantic. their sun belt schedule is much easier from this point on and this team usually takes care of business against lesser conference foes and goes on a run this time of the year. last year they went 5-1 su and 5-0-1 ats from september 29th to november 3rd. in 2006 they went 5-1 su and 6-0 ats from september 30th to november 11th.

fiu's only conference win came against the worst conference team north texas last week. they did not play any other sun belt team this season. their win over toledo was impressive and very opportune, catching toledo down emotionally after their huge emotional loss in ot against the ranked fresno state.

i believe that they are way too confident right now. it is not bad to be confident, but this could be too much for fiu. last year they played close games against miami and maryland, covering the spread in both games, and won their only game against north texas in their final game of the season. they went 0-9 su and 2-7 ats against everyone else. in 2006 they played two close games to start the season, covering the spread in both, and they also went to ot against north texas. they went 0-9 su and 1-8 ats against everyone else. see the patern ?


Updated Final Card:

Plays:

UAB +18 -105
TEX +7 -110
ND +7.5 -110
WKY +17 -130
MISST +3 -115
WIS +7 -130
WMU +1.5 -110
MTSU +2 -110


Leans:

ORST UNDER 55 -110
LA TECH +7.5 -110
SMISS +11 -110

î completeley forgot/ignored the game above. same group (19-2 ats) as michigan state, ohio, wmu, ...this week. after the research i made them my 8th and final play this week.

I LIKE WHAT I HAVE SEEN SO FAR.. JUST DONT THINK TX CAN HANG WITH OU.. GL

Thanks w365

colossal collapse by uab, as now we can only hope for a backdoor push. after leading 20-3 at the halftime, a dog of 18 points is about to lose big.

 

 

11-6 ytd with 7 plays pending (saturday action). sorry about this one guys...as i said, houston is that much better but as expected, it took them more then a half to start playing the way they can.

 

but anyways, it stil feels horrible to have a +18 dog leading by 17 at the half time and to lose that bet.