MLB picks using Monte Carlo simulation

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: MLB picks using Monte Carlo simulation
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#251
Posted: 4/26/2012 1:13:39 AM
+18.07 units overall

Giants 122(1x)
Nationals -102 (3x)
Red Sox 111 (3x)

Sporting Lisbon +510 (1x)
The8ofCups PM The8ofCups
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quote#252
Posted: 4/26/2012 1:33:47 AM
Dear Sir,

Have you explained at all what the basis of your system is?  I know a thing or two about power ratings, programming, and even Monte Carlo style analysis (in scientific applications).  I'm having a hard time imagining how exactly one would derive a predictive system from Monte Carlo analysis.

Of course I don't expect details, but can you give me some rough idea?  Thanks.
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#253
Posted: 4/26/2012 1:47:24 PM
Baseball is basically the summation of individual events.  Simulate each event and add them up and you have a baseball game.  I would guess that I have a baseball statistical database better than most MLB teams.  Each pitch is simulated and an outcome calculated based upon probable pitching matchup.  A pitch is simulated and could potentially be thrown by the starter or a pitcher from the bullpen to get a result.  The numbers crunch pitch by pitch and give me an outcome.  Actually, I have converted the output to be bettor advantage and choose units accordingly.  It took me three years.  It started as a fantasy baseball project and now has other applications.
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#254
Posted: 4/26/2012 3:17:43 PM
Matt Kalil 5th overall +1000 (.25x)
Ryan Tannehill over 4.5 105 (.75x)
Brandon Weeden u36.5 150 (.25x)

Doubling down on Tannehill over 4.5 105 (1.5x total)
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#255
Posted: 4/26/2012 4:36:41 PM
Champions League Final lock it in early
Chelsea           +200   (1x)

90 minutes plus injury time result 
Chelsea           +1/2   +125    (1x)
2 1/2   Under  -115  (1x)

90 minutes plus injury time 3-way result 
Chelsea         +425 (1x)

pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#256
Posted: 4/26/2012 10:56:33 PM
Draft props went good.

Locking in 
Nationals 189 (3x)
Mets 153 (2x)
Mariners 194 (1x)
Pirates 173 (1x)
Diamondbacks 124 (2x)
Tigers -124 (3x)
A's 114 (1x)
Cubs 242 (1x)
Angels -130 (2x)
Red Sox -110 (1x)

The program says some of these lines will run a lot.  What we are going to do is play the other side tomorrow to lock in a profit on a couple.
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#257
Posted: 4/27/2012 7:44:50 AM
2-1 +0.94, +19.01 overall
Paidonjok PM Paidonjok
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quote#258
Posted: 4/27/2012 8:44:57 AM
BOL!! 
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#259
Posted: 4/27/2012 4:30:01 PM

pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#260
Posted: 4/27/2012 4:34:07 PM
Nationals 189 (3x)
Mets 153 (2x)
Mariners 194 (1x)
Pirates 173 (1x)
Diamondbacks 124 (2x)
Tigers -124 (3x)
A's 114 (1x)
Cubs 242 (1x)
Angels -130 (2x)
Red Sox -110 (1x)

Adding
Blue Jays -190 (1x)
Phillies -240 (1x)

Makes 0.06 unit profit.  The system projected 0.3 units profit by making the play to cancel the first bet.  It also says That our initial play was worthy of one unit.  I am taking the guaranteed profit.  In order to grind out my year, I take what I can get. 
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#261
Posted: 4/28/2012 12:32:24 AM
Fulham 360 (1x)
Arsenal -110 (1x)
Newcastle 165 (1x)
Liverpool -105 (1x)

Pacers -9 (1x)
76ers +9 (1x)

Capitals 145 (2x)
Kings 143 (2x)

Nationals -116 (3x)
Mets 134 (3x)
Red Sox -103 (3x)
A's 137 (3x)
Diamondbacks 118 (5x)
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#262
Posted: 4/28/2012 12:57:04 AM
3-5 -7.64 units.   I screwed the pooch buying out of the Cubs and Mariners.  The data was borderline.  It was within a threshold where a decision had to be made and I made the wrong one.  Sorry.

still up 11.37 units overall better day tomorrow
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#263
Posted: 4/28/2012 1:06:47 PM
Angels -138 (3x)
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#264
Posted: 4/29/2012 12:41:00 AM
3-3 -1.46 +9.91 for the year.
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#265
Posted: 4/29/2012 12:47:23 AM
Celtics 1.5 (1x)
Lakers -4.5 (1x)

Predators -118 (2x)

Tigers 165 (3x)
Diamondbacks 162 (3x)
Red Sox -121 (3x)
Brewers 109 (2x)
Mets -110 (3x)
Nationals -104 (3x)
Car-man PM Car-man
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quote#266
Posted: 4/29/2012 11:29:06 AM

 NICE CARD!!!

    G/L

pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#267
Posted: 4/29/2012 7:17:02 PM
3-3 +0.29 units, +10.2 units overall.  I just looked and I am 27th overall in the NHL Playoff picks contest.  Not helping us here, but it made me chuckle a little.  Anyone just picking up this post, the record is for baseball only.  The other picks are posted at request of someone.  We did get a win with lakers today.  Good luck Celtics and Predators.  More to come.
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#268
Posted: 4/29/2012 7:34:15 PM
Orioles 158 2x
Tigers -145 3x
A's 151 2x
Mets -114 3x
Rays -121 4x
Dodgers 128 5x
Brewers 106 3x
Twins 220 2x

pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#269
Posted: 4/29/2012 11:55:15 PM
Man Untd +240 (1x)
Draw Man City/Man Untd +250 (1x)

Played at two different books basically getting Man Untd +1/2 +122.5 (2x)
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#270
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:15:48 PM
Orioles 158 2x
Tigers -145 3x
A's 151 2x
Mets -114 3x
Rays -121 4x
Dodgers 128 5x
Brewers 106 3x
Twins 220 2x

repost from last night
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#271
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:21:57 PM
Also adding Rangers -137 (2x)
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#272
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:48:12 PM
Capitals 134 (2x)
Kings 136 (2x)
Heat -9.5 (1x)
Thunder -6.5 (1x)

2LEGIT2QUITU PM 2LEGIT2QUITU
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quote#273
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:51:29 PM
BOL
pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#274
Posted: 4/30/2012 11:22:02 PM
Lakers -5 (2x)
Flyers -150  (1x)
Fulham +1 -120

Orioles 173 (3x)
Phillies 117 (2x)
Tigers -159 (3x)
Cubs 144 (2x)
Mets -121 (5x)
White Sox -124 (3x)
Dodgers 122 (7x)
Brewers -113 (3x)

pramsey1843 PM pramsey1843
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quote#275
Posted: 5/1/2012 12:50:36 AM
3-5 -5.24 units.  Week not going well glad hockey is going strong.
+4.96 units overall.  Big day tomorrow.

Lakers -5 (2x)
Flyers -150  (1x)
Fulham +1 -120

Orioles 173 (3x)
Phillies 117 (2x)
Tigers -159 (3x)
Cubs 144 (2x)
Mets -121 (5x)
White Sox -124 (3x)
Dodgers 122 (7x)
Brewers -113 (3x)
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