Messages

Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 3 of 4  1 2 3 4  
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Week 5
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
andarmac99
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 16738
Location:
#51
Posted: 10/7/2012 12:23:39 AM
mtbaker/nepatriots_12 - I don't like this matchup at all for the Panthers. Wilson should finally look decent against a terrible defense. Carolina's best LB and CB are also considered doubtful for this game. The Panthers are teetering right now. This is a young team that was overrated and saddled with a lot of expectations. I bet they are feeling a ton of pressure right now because if they don't win here they are done. I'm not sure they are experienced enough (or good enough) to handle it. This game will tell us whether they are on their way to a 4-12 season or can hang in there for a while longer.

scalabrine - Just a gut play here that they show up more motivated. Lots of people on covers like the Jets +9 but in the real world not a single person is giving them a chance in hell in this game.

GL to the rest of you guys as well.
quote
FSerpico send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
FSerpico
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 1217
Location:
#52
Posted: 10/7/2012 12:43:53 AM
Andy, if it were any other team besides the Jets, I'd completely agree with your motivation factor. I actually think the Texans will be motivated to beat up on big mouth Rex and embarrass his Jets. This is the worst kind of team for Sanchez to face in order to turn things around for the Jets.. It some how the Jets come to play, I don't think they have the guns to go score for score with the Texans and that Jet defense doesn't scare anybody anymore. These two teams are headed in opposite directions. I like the rest of the plays.
quote
shivaseven send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
shivaseven
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 423
Location:
#53
Posted: 10/7/2012 12:44:57 AM

A strong ATS trend for WK 5 is to find 1-3 teams fighting for their playoff lives against teams over .500. This week Miami, KC, Jax, and Tennessee qualify. Like you guys I'm on the Titans and for all aforementioned reasons.

In WK 5 1-3 teams off a loss and playing at home against over .500 teams off a win are 10-5 ATS against the numbers. Play KC in this situation. I've bet on the Chiefs a couple of times this year and got absolutely blown out. I'll hold my nose and make the bet but KC, for the most part, has looked horrible and I'm including weeks 2, 3, and 4 of the preseason which makes me wonder if Crennel should be the guy in KC. Before the season KC had, and hopefully still has, playoff aspirations which gives a little more validity to the desperation angle. 

 

quote
Professional1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Professional1
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 41275
Location: California
#54
Posted: 10/7/2012 12:56:53 AM
no bills?
quote
nepatriots_12 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
nepatriots_12
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 2295
Location: British
              Columbia
#55
Posted: 10/7/2012 1:46:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:

mtbaker/nepatriots_12 - I don't like this matchup at all for the Panthers. Wilson should finally look decent against a terrible defense. Carolina's best LB and CB are also considered doubtful for this game. The Panthers are teetering right now. This is a young team that was overrated and saddled with a lot of expectations. I bet they are feeling a ton of pressure right now because if they don't win here they are done. I'm not sure they are experienced enough (or good enough) to handle it. This game will tell us whether they are on their way to a 4-12 season or can hang in there for a while longer.

scalabrine - Just a gut play here that they show up more motivated. Lots of people on covers like the Jets +9 but in the real world not a single person is giving them a chance in hell in this game.

GL to the rest of you guys as well.


Agreed. People want no part of Seattle on the road and are ignoring the fact that Carolina is off a huge emotional loss (and still feeling sorry for themselves from what I have read). A physical, smash mouth team like Seattle is the exact opposite of what the doctor ordered for this bruised Panthers team. Seattle is a great bounce back team, and I think Wilson has a great shot to get his first road win here. Lynch carves up this swiss cheese run D and Wilson will take some shots deep against a very very bad Panthers secondary without their best corner in Gamble.

Not a fan of betting on my team but I think the Pats take care of the Broncos tomorrow in decisive fashion.

Let's get it Mac.


quote
avenue send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
avenue
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 5090
Location:
#56
Posted: 10/7/2012 2:27:33 AM
Best of luck with your tickets.
quote
beamjim send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
beamjim
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 1088
Location: Manitoba
#57
Posted: 10/7/2012 9:17:02 AM

Andy, good luck with your plays. I am really curious to see how this Jets game plays out. I am all for betting on a team, when everyone has written them off, but I think the Jets are in a world of trouble, with a QB that is regressing and as injuries mount, I wonder if they will be motivated themselves.I think any team that has a chance to bring the hammer down on Mr. Ryan will certainly do so. I might wait this one until half time, as if the Jets get down early, I don't see a rally out of them and might set up for a good second half play. Good luck on your picks this week Always appreciate your insight (and Glyde's, among others) in this forum.

quote
glyde69
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
glyde69
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 5850
Location: New Jersey
#58
Posted: 10/7/2012 9:35:57 AM

CFL is friggin crazy(just by hearing some of the rules you are throwing out). 

That moose was nuts in that Montreal game....and I say that not entirely understanding wtf was happening.  LOL.  I've been planning a Canada vacation for years(never seem to make it), but once I get there, I wanna check out a CFL game.  Andy/XFL, real quick without overthinking it......33 year old guy.  Looking for booze, chicks, drugs, craziness, fun in Canada......what is the best area of Canada to visit??? 

quote
glyde69
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
glyde69
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 5850
Location: New Jersey
#59
Posted: 10/7/2012 9:40:05 AM

http://imgur.com/a/9H0Hv

^^^This cracked me up. 

quote
DiscoD69 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
DiscoD69
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 7934
Location: Canada
#60
Posted: 10/7/2012 9:47:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glyde69:

CFL is friggin crazy(just by hearing some of the rules you are throwing out). 

That moose was nuts in that Montreal game....and I say that not entirely understanding wtf was happening.  LOL.  I've been planning a Canada vacation for years(never seem to make it), but once I get there, I wanna check out a CFL game.  Andy/XFL, real quick without overthinking it......33 year old guy.  Looking for booze, chicks, drugs, craziness, fun in Canada......what is the best area of Canada to visit??? 


Montreal, Toronto, or Vancouver. 

I'm in T.o. We have some good times 
quote
tankstevens send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
tankstevens
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 3011
Location: Christmas
              Islands
#61
Posted: 10/7/2012 10:28:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glyde69:

Hey Andy, for the most part my play on the Chiefs is nothing but gut instinct mixed with a little experience betting the NFL all these years. It just feels right. Also, you spoke about motivation when breaking down your Jets wager, and you can bring that same mindset with this game. IMO.

Kansas City is a team that has been getting beat up all year. They have a serviceable QB, and some offensive weapons that are really hard to matchup against(charles, moeaki, mccluster, bowe), especially for a Baltimore defense that IMO isn't NEARLY as good as they were the last decade or so. So coming into 2012 it was thought that their D can build off a decent finish to last year, and their offense while all healthy can make some noise. It hasn't exactly happened that way, and KC is a 1-3 ballclub who has looked horrible for pretty much all of the 240 minutes of football this year. Cassel is taking major heat, and Crennel has hinted that it might be time for a change. I feel that is a motivational bluff though and KC backers have nothing to worry about in that regards. The fans are getting on the team, and a promising season is getting very close to getting flushed down the toilet. It is a do or die game at home behind a raucous crowd, with a very winnable game next week against the Bucs before they go into their bye week. Losing this game might be the season, but two wins and heading into the bye 3-3 is a whole other beast. On the other side, Baltimore is 3-1. They are cruising along. They won their early season Super Bowl over the Pats recently. While Cleveland made them sweat a bit, they controlled that game for the most part. They have two huge games in the next couple weeks against Dallas and Houston. Not to say they are looking ahead by any means, but maybe THIS road game against lowly KC isn't gonna be their most "motivated" one. The media is sucking Flacco's person to no end. They are in talks as being 2nd or 3rd best in the AFC and a major contender for a SB berth, and IDK, I just don't think they are as good as prior years. Flacco is a much better QB at home(this game on the road), and Crennel's style defense I think can come up with a good plan to stop Baltimore's attack(take that with a grain of salt as they have been AWFUL so far this season).

Most of KC's woes have been because of turnovers. Costly turnovers. In a couple of their losses, early turnovers absolutely crushed them in games and ended them before they started. I just can't see them continuing to give up the ball the way they have. Also, for a 1-3 team who has pretty much been hammered in each game, they have won the total yards in all four games. Granted, get down early in each game and you can amass yards in desperation and garbage time, but the bottom line is they are moving the ball. I think KC wins this game straight up.

Another game I like is Jacksonville. I think they beat the Bears straight up as well. I don't like being a guy who says, "yeah, I think they win SU, BUT I'M GONNA TAKE THE POINTS," but it is still early in the season, and I'm looking to build up my bank a bit. Week 12, I have no qualms unloading on ML +250-400 teams, but week 12 I can mentally watch Jax or KC or NYJ play great and lose 20-17 rather than take those hits this early in the season. Anyway, the Bears offense is an absolute joke right now and laying a TD on the road is insane. I know I got +7, and I hope no one thinks I'm coming in here with BS lines. You know me...I'm not that guy. I just have a local who shade favs ridicolously and being it is my only book this year(I pulled out of all offshore lines for various reasons, and my other local closed shop about 24 hours before Week 1), I have to deal with shitty lines...for better or for worse. It's great for dogs so i can't complain there. At the same time, I'm beat with Cincy -4(looks to be 3 everywhere now), and probably NO(looking at 4.5 now).

Anyway, Bears offensive line....dogshit. Cutler seems to have zero chemistry yet with his receivers. Forte is banged up and I think gets bottled up here. Only way Bears win this is if JAX turns the ball over 3-4 times....and that's possible. Chicago has a decent D. But they are a bit undersized, and if Gabbert can be OKAY, and put the Bears in a spot where they can't load the box with 8-9 guys on 1st and 2nd down, I think JAX can bulldoze their way to a time consuming 125-150 yards on the ground. Run the ball, keep the clock moving, be balanced, and let their defense manhandle the brutal Bears offense.

Jets game, I agree with your writeup 100%. Same thoughts by me. MOTIVATION.

As for the Bengals. I friggin love this team. Dalton won me so much money at TCU(their defense as well), and the same intangibles he won games with in college, he brings to the NFL and brought it immediately. He doesn't panic under pressure. He can get tough yards with his legs. Not the strongest arm, but he can make every throw. He is very much in sync with his WR and TE's, and it doesnt hurt to have the best WR in all of football(imo AJ). Miami is scrappy, playing good ball. Their defense is physical and they are decent against the run, but they can be exploited throwing the ball, and I think Dalton has a field day. Can see this being 31-10 kind of game. Cincy's defense also is a bit underrated. I like their secondary and linebackers. And they bring crazy pressure on the QB. I don't have any numbers in front of me, but just from what I've seen with my eyes so far, they have to be averaging at least 5-6 sacks per game. Tannehill is in for a loooong day.

GL as always, buddy.


Great insight
quote
CalBear send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
CalBear
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 19649
Location: California
#62
Posted: 10/7/2012 10:30:46 AM
On a few of the same plays. Gl big fella!
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
scalabrine send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
scalabrine
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 16513
Location: United States
#63
Posted: 10/7/2012 10:36:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:



XFL covered a lot of it. It is watchable and bettable especially in July and August when there is no other football and you are dying for some pigskin (season runs July-August). But I don't know anyone who would watch or bet the CFL over the NFL. We love the NFL up here, it may not show up in the mainstream media with their hockey love affair but most of my buds and people I know love it.

There are some fucked up rules in the CFL no doubt. The 3 down rule stinks IMO but it does open things up on offense. It's more like watching a college game as the defenses aren't nearly as good as in the NFL. I feel bad for the corners as the receivers get a running start from 10-15 yards back on every play as opposed to lining up on the line of scrimmage. I do like the "no yards" rule though. There are no fair catches on punts and guys on coverage can't go within 5 yards of a guy trying to catch a punt, it promotes a shitload of kick returns. There is a returner on Hamilton by the name of Chris Williams that will get a shot in the NFL next season. He's much better than Stefan Logan (Lions) and Marcus Thigpen (Dolphins) and they've come from the CFL the last couple years. Can't forget about the dreaded single point either. If you punt the ball through the endzone or miss a FG and it goes through the endzone or isn't returned out by the other team you get a single point.

I know I've posted this before somewhere but here is the single greatest bad beat in the history of football. I did not have action on this game but here is the scenario: MTL is a -4.5 fav, they line up for a FG in a 30-30 game with no time left. It is virtually impossible to get a TD here but they miss the FG and then TOR tries to kick it out to avoid the single and losing 31-30. But then MTL gets the kick and tries to kick it back through for the single and win but it hits a TOR player (considered a fumble) and is recovered by MTL for the game winning TD. It is virtually impossible to lose holding a +4.5 ticket in this spot. Either they hit the FG or miss for the single but holy darn what a moose.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5BFaykcxGg




Wait a minute. Wait a minute. Wait a minute.

Why was Montreal trying to kick the ball through the uprights if 1 pt. is awarded through the back of the endzone on a missed FG. Why doesn't he just line up and try to boot the ball as far as he can regardless of where the goalposts are?

By going for the FG and angling the ball, it didn't take a straight path and it gave TOR enough room to hit out of the back of the endzone and then kick it out.

Is MONT going for the FG for 'sportsmanship' because it's considered bush league to just go for the win through the back of the endzone with 1 pt?

Other observations:

What happens after MONT gets the ball back from the TOR kickout if he gets tackled or if the kick is blocked? Can it be returned for a TD? When does possession change there for TOR to win the game?

The five-yard halo rule is absolutely ridiculous. Several times in that vid. the commentator said the player had 5 yards and clearly didn't. Look at 1:40 and count the yards for yourself. And how can the refs be expected to make such a judgement call from their angles with all that chaos and players blocking their sight lines?

I gotta tell ya, that whole ordeal for a fan is just a mess (and for a bettor, it is unacceptable). I seriously wouldn't allow this punting/1-pt rule in the most inconsequential game of flag football...
quote
wrapcc send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
wrapcc
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 28
Location: California
#64
Posted: 10/7/2012 11:09:26 AM
GL. I like your picks this week.  Everyone wants NO and Brees to win. I don't see them winning this week.  SD is not the best 3-1 team in the NFL but their game next week on MNF means more to them with a win this week.  This would be a good Teaser bet with let's say GB, HOU, and CHI.  BOL 
quote
SPORTSBABE send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
SPORTSBABE
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 18
Location:
#65
Posted: 10/7/2012 11:12:57 AM
Like Seattle and KC as well.  Love the M/L on Wash and Den.  GL
quote
shivaseven send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
shivaseven
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 423
Location:
#66
Posted: 10/7/2012 11:16:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glyde69:

CFL is friggin crazy(just by hearing some of the rules you are throwing out). 

That moose was nuts in that Montreal game....and I say that not entirely understanding wtf was happening.  LOL.  I've been planning a Canada vacation for years(never seem to make it), but once I get there, I wanna check out a CFL game.  Andy/XFL, real quick without overthinking it......33 year old guy.  Looking for booze, chicks, drugs, craziness, fun in Canada......what is the best area of Canada to visit??? 



If I was going to Canada for a vacation it definitely would be Vancouver in August or September.
quote
larryhughes send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
larryhughes
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 5474
Location: District of
              Columbia
#67
Posted: 10/7/2012 11:22:14 AM
quote
glyde69
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
glyde69
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 5850
Location: New Jersey
#68
Posted: 10/7/2012 2:26:45 PM

Watching KC is gonna take 5 years off my life.  The turnovers, the bad coaching calls, the penalties, the awful refs.  If I wasn't high as a kite, I would wake my mom out of bed and donkey kick her!!!!

 

quote
mtbaker send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
mtbaker
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2010
Posts: 9999
Location: British
              Columbia
#69
Posted: 10/7/2012 3:30:14 PM

andarmac I'm fuckin pullin my hair out right now- got the chiefs like glyde said above, I've turned that garbage off the TV, watching the Colts fight hard but they are down 8, and am disgusted with that 2-brain cell dumbass in Griffin for taking that big hit they are down 4 and i got 3,

I'm on the Seabags pretty big so hopefully that works out for us

quote
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
andarmac99
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 16738
Location:
#70
Posted: 10/7/2012 3:43:55 PM
Add:

Jacksonville +7 hook

GL.
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
glyde69
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
glyde69
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 5850
Location: New Jersey
#71
Posted: 10/7/2012 3:57:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mtbaker:

andarmac I'm fuckin pullin my hair out right now- got the chiefs like glyde said above, I've turned that garbage off the TV, watching the Colts fight hard but they are down 8, and am disgusted with that 2-brain cell dumbass in Griffin for taking that big hit they are down 4 and i got 3,

I'm on the Seabags pretty big so hopefully that works out for us

Thank Christ Rice got that 1st down.  MT, I have GB, but can't understand why Indy goes for 2 that early in the game.....good for me, but Jesus Christ a bad call.

quote
glyde69
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
glyde69
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 5850
Location: New Jersey
#72
Posted: 10/7/2012 4:14:37 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Add:

Jacksonville +7 hook

GL.

Thats a winning play.

quote
mtbaker send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
mtbaker
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2010
Posts: 9999
Location: British
              Columbia
#73
Posted: 10/7/2012 5:31:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glyde69:

Thank Christ Rice got that 1st down.  MT, I have GB, but can't understand why Indy goes for 2 that early in the game.....good for me, but Jesus Christ a bad call.

crazy day man a lot of head scratching but I'm doing ok

Really need the Seabags here

quote
mtbaker send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
mtbaker
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2010
Posts: 9999
Location: British
              Columbia
#74
Posted: 10/7/2012 5:58:14 PM

Feel like throwing the remote watching the Seahawks right now

quote
glyde69
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
glyde69
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 5850
Location: New Jersey
#75
Posted: 10/7/2012 6:18:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mtbaker:

Feel like throwing the remote watching the Seahawks right now

Same here.  Between them and Jax, I'm ready to murder people. 

quote
Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 3 of 4  1 2 3 4  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.