Messages

YTD 63-57 +16.78

CLV (Closing Line Value): +14.72

CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +6.05

As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).

Lost a unit yesterday. Came so close to hitting a +180 Cubs ML bet but they fell just short. My Reds wager never really had a chance, but the Rays managed to pull through to salvage the day a bit.

Another three plays for today.

Wednesday 5/16

953 Pittsburgh Pirates +160

965 St. Louis Cardinals +120

970 Toronto Blue Jays +115

I'm not really sure why, but BetOnline threw out some ridiculous opening lines for PIT/WAS and STL/SFO. I was not able to hit the submit button fast enough on either of these two wagers. Some absolutely ridiculous numbers. My personal lines for these were PIT +135 and STL -105 and that's about where they sit now. Still waiting for the Jays to move, but even if it doesn't I still like the play as I feel there's decent value on the home dog here.

Good luck to everybody today.

Good question... I tend not to look at lines in those ranges. When I'm doing my research and making my own line for the game, it's a lot harder to do for those games where the spread is going to be above -200 because of the variability involved. A 20 cent difference between my line of say -130 and an opening line of say -150 has more meaning than a 20 cent difference between something like -220 and -240.

Because of the wild fluctuations in those large spreads, I tend not to get involved.

Very nice grab on the A's though, SR.

 Albert, freak, Nate, hitter, AC

Thanks, guys.

QUOTE Originally Posted by switchwalk:

yeah dude really thought id see you on the O's.

cant blame you tho man i really hate matusz

and NOT betting the fish is always a smart move 

i really wanna join you on stros but marcum @ minmaid:

14IP 4H 0R 3/14 BB/K .085 opp avg

Marcum is not quite right this year so lets hope the young stros bats can rough him up 

I hear you switch, but I've learned to just play the numbers and ignore the trends. And I just think this number is too high, especially when you consider Marcum just closed -165 at home against Volstad (which would make him around -125 or -130 on the road against Volstad.)

When I compare that to -150 @ Stros against J.A. Happ, it just doesn't make sense. The Brewers have really been devalued these past couple weeks (check out tonight's MIL/HOU line), and -150/+140 in my opinion is just too big of a line. I had it capped around -130 or -135.

Wednesday 5/16

953 Pittsburgh Pirates +160

965 St. Louis Cardinals +120

970 Toronto Blue Jays +115