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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: SlumdogPicks|Early week 1 pick's|Critique and Advice
mischkin04 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 6/13/2012 11:58:29 AM
        I love the Bears to annihilate Indy. Could I suggest you list all game plays with visitor first?
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#27
Posted: 6/13/2012 5:27:56 PM
Mish, Is that directed at me? I'm sorry, I had about 10 hours of sleep in the last two days so I'm out of it. Where you asking me to list all the game plays i am considering/doing, with visitor's first or something ?

QB, Ya dude. KC has the weapons to be a team to watch out for. However the same can be said for Atlanta. As of right now I find this match up too close/risky to make a big play on it. Too many unknown's, and the fact that I could see literally either team taking it doesn't help either. Might have to sit out on that one for week 1!


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#28
Posted: 6/13/2012 7:23:32 PM
Go with your gut Slumdog i can see now why you think the KC vs ATL is risky.
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#29
Posted: 6/13/2012 7:38:18 PM
Hey Nickka, ya I may decide to go though with this game closer to week 1. As of now, it's a big no play for me. However I'm feeling ATL for some odd reason... One thing I have learned though, is as important as it is to "go with your gut", you should always be confident with your bet. I can say with out a doubt I would not be confident betting either side at this point in time

Jags are starting to worry me, how about you guys? At first I thought they may stand a fighting chance against the Vikings in week 1, but with their stud WR getting in trouble with the law already, and MJD holding out for a new contract while Jag's management has publicly announced they have no plans in re-evaluating the remaining 2 years on his contract... Jags could be a nice play,.... to bet against for the first few weeks boys.


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#30
Posted: 6/13/2012 8:21:59 PM
I do not like there QB Slum... There is nobody on that offense that i can trust besides MJD and a WR in Blackmon may be able to help but nobody at QB makes me confident enough to spend my money unless however they are playing the colts than maybe i will throw down some cash but they are playing the vikings. I know its not much of a big difference but i can not spend money there. 
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#31
Posted: 6/13/2012 8:24:42 PM
Ya i diddn't even bother mentioning their garbage QB. With Robinson and Blackmon at WR he may be more productive, but thats a big maybe. Also IF MJD holds out,... oh my god that will be a garbage show.

Hence why i suggest betting against them every game until they put up a fight... could be a while :p
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#32
Posted: 6/13/2012 8:25:53 PM
Ps. I still wouldn't touch them if they were playing the colts (Unless MJD was playing good, and they were at home).
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#33
Posted: 6/13/2012 11:37:04 PM
yeah good point im going to have to keep looking on some picks i did like the pats at -6.5 im sure come game day it will be 7 or even 7.5 so will see what happens. You do college to slum?
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#34
Posted: 6/14/2012 6:06:40 AM
No man I usually give the NFL literally all of my attention during the season. May get into it this year or the next though.
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#35
Posted: 6/14/2012 4:12:59 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by SlumdogPicks:

No man I usually give the NFL literally all of my attention during the season. May get into it this year or the next though.

ReallY? do u know the ATS of the super bowl LOSER week 1?

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#36
Posted: 6/14/2012 4:42:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by QBoption:

ReallY? do u know the ATS of the super bowl LOSER week 1?



Yes, statistically speaking its against the team who lost the super bowl in week 1. To be precise they are 0-12 in the last 12 seasons. I know this, and I'm still confidently betting on the Pat's to win, and cover the spread.
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#37
Posted: 6/14/2012 7:08:14 PM
Streaks are made to be broken
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#38
Posted: 6/14/2012 7:19:06 PM
That's one way of looking at it. But what it really comes down to in my opinion is those are completely different teams, playing completely different games, with completely different outcomes. The last team that lost the super bowl and won their first game of the season the previous year was the patriots as well. Also, this shows Brady has been through this process of loosing before, and knows how to handle himself and the team. It has been reported from many different team sources that Brady right now has an intensity that he has yet to have in a long time... and its only june. Fully confident in the boys in blue.
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#39
Posted: 6/27/2012 8:34:28 AM

Pick 5: Meh, im not big on the Buc's and i think Newton/Smith/Stewart will pack a mean punch. Out of all the pick's, I am least confident in this one. However, that's not to say I don't like it, I just haven't looked into this match up as much as the others, it just caught my eye.

You are right not to be confident with this pick. Check the stats on the Defenses of these two teams. Horrible. Lot of new faces on Defense for both teams. Division game so Tampa will be on there toes at home vs a Divisional Opp. Cam is on tape now. He will see a lot of new looks. I see a shoot out with the Bucs making a few more plays on defense at home to win.

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#40
Posted: 6/27/2012 8:51:20 AM

I like UNDER 41 in Colts vs Bears matchup.

This game is going to be slow and methodical. New QB in Indy. Not going to throw him to the wolves. Going to to try to keep Cutler off the field so you dont see their new add players on offense.  Slight lean on +10 just based on the how lackluster the game will be. 41 and -10 just does not mesh.

Safe bet is the Under 41. looking at at a 21-13 typegame.

TD Couple of field goals for Indy. and Chicago scoring when they can get the ball

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#41
Posted: 6/27/2012 9:12:58 AM

The Pat lines is at -6.5at most places. If game day its still 6.5 you know you lost money betting on the Pats. Pats are terrible against the run. Its not like CJ has been killing people but still is a threat. Mix this with Hassel game management skills and I think you have a TITANS cover. Keep that 59-0 out of your head. It will cost you money.

I like New Orleans in the Dome -9. This is just an us against the world play. Good Teaser play without a doubt. The Saints win games in that place period.

Love the Texans at Miami play. When you see Ocho starting for Dolphins. He has not been productive in a while. you know they wont be lighting up the scoreboard. They have 12 QBs betting agains them just because I see a team with no direction upstairs or on the field. Hook it down to 6.5 and walk away. If you lose this one you can blame the Texans all you wont

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#42
Posted: 6/28/2012 8:59:33 PM

Slumdog... Im all over the Texans and Chicago like white on rice

Colts will struggle in this game in Chicago. Defense will give Luck a few welcome to the NFL sacks. With Marshall incorporated into the WR core and speedy Devin Hester (against what secondary?) their aerial attack should be potent. I love Chicago to win by DD at home.

Texans at home will lay the wood on Miami. Ryan Tannehill will have a long Sunday. Schaub Foster and Andre Johnson will show up to play. I actually think the Bears or Texans will be in the super bowl this year. -6.5 is a gift in my opinion. Dolphins may have a good D line but their offense will struggle for sure in that environment. Fresh rook QB. He aint RG3 or Andy Luck. How much can they really do week 1? i smell a blowout in both games to be quite honest.

Im feeling the Pats to cover against Titans especially after the loss of Jeff Fisher. Im going to stay away from road favorites the first few weeks tho. Texans and Bears both strong home plays against inferior teams with rookie QBs. I'll gladly take them. Good luck this year

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#43
Posted: 6/29/2012 8:34:27 PM

runner21- Im with you on the Saints. People seem to be doubting them at this point because of bountygate and the contract negotiations with Brees. Hey NO aint stupid. Brees is arguably the best QB in the NFL. He will be signed soon. Nick Toon is an awesome pickup from Wisconsin. The kid can play. He still has his favorite target Marques Colston, and Graham is still there. Dont forget about their RBs. The Saints will step up to the plate this year will all this BS goin on. under the dome too? RG3 will have a hell of a welcome to the NFL game

Oh and its the Dolphins in Houston, not the other way around. maybe thatll make you like them more . Im all over the texans week 1

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#44
Posted: 6/29/2012 9:54:49 PM

    I couldn't possibly bet the Bucs until they prove themselves first. That said, it's no play on that one.

   Liking Houston and U 43.5 as an opener parlay. Will Ocho Cinco open up this Dolphin offense? I think not.

        GL

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#45
Posted: 6/30/2012 6:34:08 AM

  I'd be wary of taking a 4 teamer with all large favs in game 1. So many surprises possible to start the season. As a Pats fan, I expect that offense to click, but something tells me Titans will come out swinging too. Hasselbeck, CJ(benefits from new all pro left guard), Britt and Cook will have something to say at home.

          GL

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#46
Posted: 6/30/2012 5:23:13 PM
In the Texans game I waiting to see who shakes out of the QB circus. Garrard scares me a bit. He can move outside of the pocket. Make plays with his feet. Maybe he is getting old. I love the Texans week 1 at home. They always seem to F it up in some way. I might get scared off by this pick. You ever get that feeling when someone is swinging their leg and you know they are about to kick you in the balls but you cant move. Thats how i feel about Texans week 1
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