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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Alpha
vetdrm
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vetdrm
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#1
Posted: 4/22/2012 4:32:19 PM
Does anyone here remember Funny side losing by a neck to Empire Maker in the 2003 Wood Memorial. 

Great though he was I still am surprised when he turned the tables and beat him in the Kentucky Derby.

First time gelding won that race and at 13-1 ,did it really make sense after you looked back at his two races prior?

Now I look at the 2012 Wood and see what could be the same kind of scenario.

That would be Gemologist and Alpha.

Even though Gemologist impressed me the most out of any Grade 1 race  I see a strange similarity to what happen in 2003.
Alpha
1] Improving
2] Good Connections
3] One of the better 11/4 pedigrees
4]  Karma  The Sheikh played a significant roll in keeping Bafferts heart beating.

Guessing he'll be 10-1 [ with a decent post ]

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vetdrm
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#2
Posted: 4/22/2012 4:42:01 PM
2012 Resorts World New York Casino Wood Memorial Stakes

Does It appears Alpha, in the beginning,may have had a slightly tougher run then Gemologist.
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#3
Posted: 4/22/2012 4:48:30 PM
10-1 all day.

HB 
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vetdrm
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#4
Posted: 4/22/2012 4:52:45 PM
I am home draining my king size water bed due to frequent complaints from management[my wife]

30+ years Ive had that bed and had lots of fun with it prior to getting hitched.if you know what I mean

Sad though..I feel there will someday be a museum for different 70s era water bed bases.   What a great bed.  
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#5
Posted: 4/22/2012 9:19:23 PM
I mean the only difference is that Funny Cide ran about a 108 beyer and empire maker ran a 109. These horses ran 98 and 98. Alpha is a small looking horse. He got banged around a bit in the wood and then had to fight some sort of infection recently. Not the kind of garbage you want to be messing with 3 weeks prior to the race. Not sure he is the kind of horse built to win the derby. I will take a look at him if the track is sloppy.He looks like the kind of horse that can glide over a wet track being a bit lighter then a horse like union rags.
The addition of Trinniberg really made this race tougher to cap. He could still get stuck in the gate, squeezed among many other things but definitely adds pace to the mix and it can't be beneficial for hansen/bode.
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#6
Posted: 4/22/2012 9:40:34 PM
If Ramon chooses Hansen, does that alter your synopsis ?
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#7
Posted: 4/22/2012 10:37:03 PM
i wouldnt worry too much about Dominguez roused its not like he shines in the derby. IMO Mclaughlin is the better trainer and Alpha is bred to run for days. alpha did nothing wrong in his last start but will be overlooked because he didnt win the Wood, Alpha will be on all my exoctic tickets, curious to see how he works at CD. 
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#8
Posted: 4/23/2012 7:50:17 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by fatroll07:

I mean the only difference is that Funny Cide ran about a 108 beyer and empire maker ran a 109. These horses ran 98 and 98. Alpha is a small looking horse. He got banged around a bit in the wood and then had to fight some sort of infection recently. Not the kind of garbage you want to be messing with 3 weeks prior to the race. Not sure he is the kind of horse built to win the derby. I will take a look at him if the track is sloppy.He looks like the kind of horse that can glide over a wet track being a bit lighter then a horse like union rags.
The addition of Trinniberg really made this race tougher to cap. He could still get stuck in the gate, squeezed among many other things but definitely adds pace to the mix and it can't be beneficial for hansen/bode.

I totally agree.  No matter how you slice it, both these 3yos have to do another thing they've never done before and that's rate.  The 1 1/4 is heavy enough lifting as it is, how many things are you going to keep changing?

I can't wait to see full DRF PPs for all these guys.

HB

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#9
Posted: 4/23/2012 9:11:29 AM
HB I was a really big fan of Bode. He will still be used in my tickets but  it is easy to see why he could be a play against for many. Apollo, bounce, can he rate? Now he is going to have a rabbit out front and even if he can rate the pace will be faster then it would previously. The great thing about this derby is if you can get past Bodemeister then 10 horses can win it. If you can't get past that Bode is clearly the fastest horse in the field then it looks like a one horse race. I think that is the way this derby appears at first look..

Alpha's last race was impressive. He encountered a lot of trouble and he ran a great race. The two reasons I can not get myself on him are the final quarter time in that race and the infection he just suffered. If it wasn't for those two things he has an improving pattern, nice breeding and he has a few explosive moves in him. I have no choice to eliminate horses and unless I see something on the track from him I will have to move on.
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#10
Posted: 4/23/2012 1:14:58 PM
I played him in the Breeder's Cup Juv (and lost). I like his Wood performance. I am hoping to get around 20-1 on him. As long as his post doesn't totally suck I like his chances..GL
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#11
Posted: 4/23/2012 11:32:19 PM
Vet from what I am reading Alpha is not even making it to the track daily. Today 4/23 he just went to the shedrow after a gallop yesterday. Obviously something is not exactly right with this horse. He is a toss for me
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#12
Posted: 4/23/2012 11:37:03 PM
The main reason I am bringing this up is just to make sure nobody is making any future bets on this horse at this time. Probably a 50-50 chance this horse scratches before the derby based on the situation. Antibiotics, infection, not getting to the track daily. One work between races (maybe).
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#13
Posted: 4/24/2012 12:18:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fatroll07:

Vet from what I am reading Alpha is not even making it to the track daily. Today 4/23 he just went to the shedrow after a gallop yesterday. Obviously something is not exactly right with this horse. He is a toss for me


Good info Roll........I never liked this horse to begin with.......did he have any problems before the Wood? He ran great against Gemologist but if he had any problems health wise, that means Gemologist isnt up to as good as he is being made even tho he is undefeated.........
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#14
Posted: 4/24/2012 7:54:41 AM
No he did not have any problems going into the wood that I know of besides the long layoff. He ran the best race in the wood of any horse because he definitely had trouble. You can't judge gemologist off of this. I just don't like what is going on up there with this horse but maybe Kiarin has something up his sleeve.
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vetdrm
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#15
Posted: 4/25/2012 8:15:37 PM

From DRF.com today....

At Belmont Park, a good-feeling Alpha reared up and unseated his exercise rider, Ricardo Ponce, coming off the training track after a 1 3/8-mile gallop. His groom had the reins, so Alpha did not get loose. Alpha remains on schedule to breeze at Belmont Park on Saturday. His connections, owner Godolphin Racing and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, have not firmed up a rider and will likely wait until after the weekend to do so. One rider no longer under consideration is Eddie Castro, who has committed to ride Winter Memories in the Grade 3, $150,000 Beaugay at Belmont on Derby Day

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vetdrm
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#16
Posted: 4/28/2012 2:18:23 PM
Update for any Alpha fans out there:

Alpha goes 5f in :59 2/5.  Splits were...eighth in :11 3/5, quarter in :23 1/5, half in :47.  Galloped out 6f in 1:15.  McLaughlin called the work "great."
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vetdrm
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#17
Posted: 5/2/2012 7:04:18 PM
Guess there are some who arent to worried about Alpha's infection
and slight interruption in training. 12-1 wow.

just a little higher then Gemologist at 7-1..whadayaknow.

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#18
Posted: 5/2/2012 7:54:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vetdrm:

Guess there are some who arent to worried about Alpha's infection
and slight interruption in training. 12-1 wow.

just a little higher then Gemologist at 7-1..whadayaknow.
 

 

Hoping to get at least 15-1 on Alpha. Good post and works have been good. He is my key horse..GL

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#19
Posted: 5/2/2012 10:05:37 PM
Alpha was getting whipped by Ramon at the 1/4 pole in the Wood, he finished well, but is a throw out.
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#20
Posted: 5/2/2012 10:25:34 PM
Vet Understands VALUE!!! Alpha though not my choice could improve and will be a monster price!!!
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#21
Posted: 5/2/2012 10:33:08 PM
total leave off the ticket. Not 100% and his Wood was not that good. Being asked for major run at the 1/4 is not impressive and couldn't pass Gem when he had dead aim.
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#22
Posted: 5/2/2012 11:00:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vetdrm:

Update for any Alpha fans out there:

Alpha goes 5f in :59 2/5.  Splits were...eighth in :11 3/5, quarter in :23 1/5, half in :47.  Galloped out 6f in 1:15.  McLaughlin called the work "great."

they are playing poker with us:   this horse will hit the board

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