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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Washingtonian's take on Sea/Was
aszzzbrokerman
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aszzzbrokerman
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#1
Posted: 1/2/2013 1:08:28 PM
I am not a fan. Gambling for whats now more than a decade has ruined my ability to be a fan. On to the game. This is just from a guy thats seen every game and almost every play.

The skins are probably the most unique team in the league. They are horrible on 3rd down and have one of the top 5 offenses in the league. Take that in. This means they are winning 1st and 2nd down at an absurd clip.This means you have to throw almost every thing you know about the NFL out when you play them. Because thats not supposed to be possible.

It starts with Griffin. Noone can wait longer than him to throw the ball once he recognizes blitz. Watch he long he waits to throw the ball when a blitz is coming and then notice that every time he is able to get through his entire motion thus most of the time he ends up being hit somewhere on his back. Thank you Bill Polian for being candid and explaining that to us wanna be scouts. 4 man pressure is also never going to get to him. He makes players like JPP look silly trying to tackle him. He has this ability to wait to untill you fully commit until he jukes. Its uncanny. So your best chance is to lay good licks on him when he decides to stay in the pocket and throw and knock him silly. And he does this maybe 5 times a game and gets through is motion enough to protect himself. Where he takes big hits is running around past the line of scrimmage. Again this is unbiased. Im not a fan I'm just looking for betting angles.

Another uncanny thing about teh Skins offense. They throw the ball behind the line of scrimmage an awful lot. Yet Griffin still has one of the highest air yards per attempt and one of the highest completion percentages. So he throw short alot but then can throw the ball downfield with success too. This is not supposed to be able to be possible. The defense is supposed to be able to take something away and pick their poison. Noone has figured out how to take anything away from this offense on this winning streak. This is the NFL not supposed to be possible.

So here comes Seattle who's defense thrives on beating qbs to a pulp and beating you up in the passing game. Skins dont have to throw 20 times to score 28 points. So Seattle's whole M.O over this big winning streak has been being aggressive and playing bully.  The skins m.o is taking the ability to be a bully out of your hands. They patiently run the ball and they run effectively. And then when one player on your defense gets frustrated with accepting his 5 yard fate they throw the ball right over his head and there is nothing you can do about it(at least noone has figured this out yet).

This has impacted the Redskins Defense in a positive way. Knowing that the offense is going to score 4tds methodically the lackluster redskins D has spent the win streak throwing the house at opposing offenses. 6 and 7 man pressures every play. They don't care if they get burned. The offense is going to keep them in the game.

This tactic is going to be a problem against the rookie Wilson. What hes great at is making extra time and using that extra time to throw deep every time hes got anything working downfield. And if that doesnt work at the last second he takes off. Creating a punt return like scenario against defenders who have already had to change directions multiple times. He can run for tds or throw for them. Whichever option your team gives him. Compare this to Griffin who is horrible at this tactic. Every time he gets outside the tackles he runs for the sideline like a deer in headlights.

So we have two teams on impressive winning streaks with completely different ways of attacking opponents. The skins have an unfair weapon at qb who has the guts to utilize his ability to kill you downfield or underneath.

All this to say I dont think either team can stop the other one. If you blitz Wilson and dont get him good luck. Thats the only successful d the skins are capable of running. You cant stop Griffin right now.

Edge to the home team.

Unstoppable qb play = home team always right?

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hellahigh
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#2
Posted: 1/2/2013 1:16:37 PM
hay hay good write up i locked the skins in yesterday 
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hellahigh
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#3
Posted: 1/2/2013 1:17:23 PM
i think washington's going to be louder than it's been in a long time as well
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bpickin
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bpickin
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#4
Posted: 1/2/2013 3:05:58 PM
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InVegas
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#5
Posted: 1/2/2013 11:55:41 PM

Nice write up, but if the "beat-up" cowboys D can hold the Skins to 21 pts (until a late Romo pick on the Dallas 25 yd line) like they did. ... then the "beefed up"... faster, heathier, more talented Seattle D will hold the Skins to less than 21.

Seattle might have trouble scoring early because of the crowd and pressure and nerves. But because their D is so dominant - and will be just as Domninant on Sunday keeping Washington out of the endzone - they will have a chance to win with a late score (and they will win, and cover)

The Skins D will run out of answers - and gas - from chasing Russel Wilson around (late).

Best of luck

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GUCCIMONEY
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#6
Posted: 1/3/2013 12:37:59 AM
I THINK YOU ARE SEVERELY UNDERRATING THE SEAHAWKS DEFENSE AND ARE SEVERELY OVERRATING THE REDSKINS OFFENSE
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v8sl8r
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v8sl8r
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#7
Posted: 1/3/2013 2:42:05 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by GUCCIMONEY:

I THINK YOU ARE SEVERELY UNDERRATING THE SEAHAWKS DEFENSE AND ARE SEVERELY OVERRATING THE REDSKINS OFFENSE

 nice, couldnt agree more... They beat the eagles who are in need of a make over from coaches and their players egos and a beat up dallas squad with predictable play calling and everyone thinks they are that much better.. dont care if seattle never has beat washington ever before in history if that was a real stat, id still  put my money based on how they are playing today on Seattle...  and not a washington team that is basically a qb and rb driven team as of late.. with a average defense..

right now Seattle is just a better all around team...on the feild and on paper... 

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v8sl8r
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#8
Posted: 1/3/2013 2:42:46 AM
 Best of luck on ethier side u choose
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#9
Posted: 1/3/2013 2:51:03 AM
Wilson has overachieved big time...look for the Skins D to throw the kitchen sink at him. It's all about the qb's in this game and quite frankly, Wilson can't even carry RG3's jock strap.
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v8sl8r
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v8sl8r
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#10
Posted: 1/3/2013 3:07:41 AM

Really, the press is making it a qb show down beacuse thats all skins got really with a decent rb for now and by next season he will be just like cam, a good scrambler with arm that teams figured out how to stop... seattle on the other hand has a under rated qb with all around team to back him... rb, wr, cb line ect.... 

wilson has less completions with more tds but same attempts and only few less rushing yds.. pretty damn close IMO so I would say unless one is more hung than the other ( hahaha) they could wear the exact same jock strap... 

maybe its just me but rg3 just like mr luck in my opinion will both go down... i may not be the first one on here but I will be back sat and sun night to say congrats and to say I still didnt see it if eithier games goes other way...

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THEMUGG
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#11
Posted: 1/3/2013 1:32:44 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Nhenley:

Wilson has overachieved big time...look for the Skins D to throw the kitchen sink at him. It's all about the qb's in this game and quite frankly, Wilson can't even carry RG3's jock strap.

 This person either doesn't watch much football or watches but doesn't understand it............qb's will likely be a wash in this game.

  Good write-up aszz............my thoughts are that Seattle will play the run exclusively, ie 7 in the box most of the time. They have that luxury because they have an All-Pro secondary that can play M2M with anyone & very fast LB's. They're not gonna stop Washington all day, but they can limit big plays & force griffin to do more than he should have to.

 On offense, Seattle will do what it does..........pound away with the run til the Wash. D creeps up & then pick apart the weak Wash. 2ndary. It all sounds good on paper, don't it?

 Should be a great game........maybe the best of the weekend.

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