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[College Basketball] Topic: Sloop Sunday |
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sloop703 |
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#51 Posted: 2/19/2012 4:27:44 PM 
looked shaky at half, but both wound up covering the spread easily
i should take my money and walk, but whatever. Taking some of my winnings and putting it on USF +8 (b.5)
Yes, this play looks square as hell. There has been a reverse line movement, despite the public nutting all over South Florida. It's Senior Night. Pitt has revenge to play for. South Florida has been bad on the road, and their three road wins came to Providence, DePaul, and Villanova. Three of the worst teams in the Big East. South Florida has to go to Syracuse on Wednesday. I've considered all of those things.
But take a deeper look before you call USF a garbage road team. Here are all the teams they've played on the road:
#13 Georgetown: 13-1 at home, (#39 cincy)
#16 Marquette: 13-1 at home (#27 vandy)
#38 Notre Dame: 14-1 at home (#40 uconn)
#54 Southern Miss: 13-0 at home
#161 Auburn: 13-2 (#1 kentucky, #28 alabama)
#3 Kansas: 14-0 at home
#43 VCU: 12-1 at home (#83 georgia state)
Combine those, you get teams that are 92-6 at home. Those 7 teams COMBINED have the same number of losses at home that Pitt has this season. And 6 of those 7 teams are at least 25 spots higher in KenPom's team rankings, as Pitt comes in at #82. And 5 of those 6 losses for those teams come to teams that are in the Top 40 or better. The outlier is Georgia State, and they're just 1 spot behind Pitt in KenPom rankings, and that loss came by exactly 2 points. I don't need USF to win; just need them to hang close.
I know Pitt played without Woodall for a while, so that should be factored into their underachieving season. But Pitt is obviously still beatable at home. (See: WVU. and Rutgers, Long Beach, Cincy, Wagner, and Louisville). This team has loads of problems on defense, their offense is so impatient, inconsistent, and undisciplined. They're turnover-prone, they're mentally frustrated, and going up against USF's defense is no cure for all of those problems. They're like Xavier, they're like UConn, they're like a ton of teams....the talent is there, but the performance is absolutely not. Expecting them to click after dropping 3 straight and after losing to WVU by 18 at home with just 2 days turnaround time and having nothing to play for other than pride is a lot of expections. And laying 7.5 points is even worse, to a team that is 9-4, winners of 7 of last 9 (those losses being Marquette and Georgetown) and have had an extra day to prepare.
USF is playing for their playoff lives in this game; they should be aware of the implications of a blowout loss at Pittsburgh. They would immediately be deemed irrelevant with a loss. although they're 9-4 in conference, they've played the weakest Big East schedule, and they've dropped those games to the aforementioned BE teams with talent.
"Right now with South Florida, I've got to use the old cliché and say, 'Where's the beef?' " said ESPN's Joe Lunardi, who is considered the patron saint of bracketology, the study of NCAA tournament criteria and the projection of brackets. "It comes down to getting scalps, and they still need to get a few. "No one really thinks South Florida is at the level of Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown or Louisville. I don't mean that to be insulting. It's just a fact. My gut says they're not good enough for the NCAA. They're more of an NIT team. I'd love to be proven wrong, and if they can get some quality wins, I'll be the first one to beat South Florida's drum. They simply need to beat more high-caliber teams.'' Syracuse will be that big chance. But sweeping Pitt and finishing the BE is still crucial. This will be a low-possession game; Pitt is #283 in pace, USF is #335. I just think this will be a grinder, and I like Pitt's impatience and sloppiness to give USF the chance to capitalize and cover.
GL |
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utfootball4 |
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#52 Posted: 2/19/2012 4:32:37 PM |
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sloop703 |
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#53 Posted: 2/19/2012 4:44:57 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by utfootball4:
Risky play!!!!! USF struggles to produce pts...
yep, that's true. 61.3 ppg is #309 in the country. but they're still quite efficient, and a lot of that is solely because of their slow pace. they've held 13 of their last 17 opponents to 60 points or less. And 8 of those were 55 points or less. Even if pitt only scores 50 points, there's still a very good chance they cover. and also a very good chance they win straight up. pitt still drains 3s here and there and show flashes of greatness, but i still like USF. |
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sloop703 |
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#54 Posted: 2/19/2012 4:45:25 PM |
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sloop703 |
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#55 Posted: 2/19/2012 7:58:51 PM
Watched the whole first half; scoreboard doesn't reflect what's happening. USF looked strong early on, starting out 15-4 and only holding Pitt to 4 points through the first 9 and a half minutes. Pitt went on a 17-9 run to end the 1st half and they look surprisingly energized, and the fans looked hyped. Woodall was on the bench with 2 fouls, and once he gets back in things will change. USF folded so fast once Pitt started showing signs of life, and I don't trust them to hang on in the 2nd half. They can't make free throws, and if Pitt starts either playing even a LITTLE defense or starts dropping 3s, they'll pull away.
Not expecting it to hit, but a decent shot for a middle exists here. Assuming it's a loser and doing other things. Still a good day with that parlay hitting. |
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sloop703 |
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#56 Posted: 2/20/2012 12:04:56 AM
only play for tomorrow is UConn -2. everything else is terrible |
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sloop703 |
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#57 Posted: 2/20/2012 12:27:17 AM
basic thoughts...revenge game, longhorns are 14-2 at home...kansas and Mizzou were the only 2 teams to win at UT and those wins were by 3 and 1 point..obviously an extremely tough environment...longhorns have won by 7, 9, 10, 11, and 17 in the other Big 12 home games. Texas hasn't lost more than 2 home games in a single season since the 2001-2002 season. they've only lost 16 games at home in the past 10 years (since 2002-2003 season). unbelievable.
also dont trust baylor. personally think they're pretty overrated. especially don't trust them on the road (i think big 12 is the toughest conference to win a road game). they're 5-2 on Big 12 road games, but three of those wins were decided by 4 or fewer points, and the two that werent were @ #241 Texas Tech and @#107 Oklahoma...(TT only has 1 win in conference this season, against Oklahoma....and Oklahoma sucks too, 3-11 in conference.) and the other 3 road wins that Baylor has? #91 Oklahoma State, #111 Texas A&M, and #25 K State. K State comes close, but Texas is better than all three of those teams in my opinion, and playing at Austin is a tougher atmosphere
Texas is young and thus cant trust them on the road, but they've been $ at home, i'll lay the 2 here in a revenge game against a baylor team that annoys me |
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