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Author: [Streak Survivor] Topic: mc2010... to hedge or not to hedge?
trotter64
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#1
Posted: 9/9/2011 12:22:27 PM
MC2010... great work on a sick run.   Keep doing what you're doing.

In another thread, talking about should you hedge your next play or not... there are some real bright ones talking some junk about not hedging your next play.

Do yourself a favor, do the only smart thing... THAT'S HEDGE YOUR NEXT PLAY. Unless you don't care about money... and or you could care less about waking up the day after your next play is over going, "Damn... just one more winner and I could have scored"

Your 20th win in a row... that win was good for $12,500 if you hedge. Once you won that play... if you do things right... you can't miss.

Would I personally hedge 50%... no... but you bet your @ss... there is no way I would ever take the chance of waking up the next day knowing I could have had either 20K and or 5K... but woke up with nothing (if the play goes down) because I did not do the ONLY SMART THING... that's hedging your 21st play.

So those who would not hedge... please... let us know why, maybe you know something I don't.

MC2010   best of luck
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#2
Posted: 9/9/2011 3:57:01 PM
this was my take on hedging, figure i'd repost it here. i personally didn't hedge and probably wouldn't hedge again in the same situation (only reason i would is answering yes to my first question below). i can say with complete certainty that when i look back on my streak not once have i wished i hedged.

from another thread: 

as for hedging, i have a different take. i chose not to hedge and haven't given it a second thought, but that was a personal decision. i basically used two questions that helped me be satisfied with my decision:
 
is there some circumstance in your life where you absolutely need 10-13K (could guarantee yourself a little over 13K with baseball by taking a favorite on covers and betting on a dog. optimized numbers based on odds for the game)?

in the long run, which would cause you more agony, winning your pick and missing out on money or or losing your pick and not winning any money?

it is an individual choice. i know i would have been much more upset with winning my pick and having to pay off my hedge than i ended up being by not winning.
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#3
Posted: 9/9/2011 5:56:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thewhitesmith:

this was my take on hedging, figure i'd repost it here. i personally didn't hedge and probably wouldn't hedge again in the same situation (only reason i would is answering yes to my first question below). i can say with complete certainty that when i look back on my streak not once have i wished i hedged.

from another thread: 

as for hedging, i have a different take. i chose not to hedge and haven't given it a second thought, but that was a personal decision. i basically used two questions that helped me be satisfied with my decision:
 
is there some circumstance in your life where you absolutely need 10-13K (could guarantee yourself a little over 13K with baseball by taking a favorite on covers and betting on a dog. optimized numbers based on odds for the game)?

in the long run, which would cause you more agony, winning your pick and missing out on money or or losing your pick and not winning any money?

it is an individual choice. i know i would have been much more upset with winning my pick and having to pay off my hedge than i ended up being by not winning.


LOL... have you read your reply? I can't make heads or tails of what the hell your talking about. You need to poof read before you post... look at that mess.

I think what you are trying to say is... you would not hedge, because you would not be happy with paying the book, lets say 5k and collecting only 20k? You would be less stressed to just win/ lose the whole 25k... knowing you did not have to pay the book if your Streak bet won here on covers?   WOW

Hello... if your streak bet won on Covers... they would be paying the hedge bet... no? You just won 25k...

My way... hedge 5k...and if the streak wins on covers you get back 25k from covers and you pay the book with covers money.

If the streak bet on covers goes down... you get nothing from covers... but with the book... you now have 5k. (at least 5k, depending on the odds of covers play/book play)

Bottom line... my way... I'm waking up with at least 5k... and could be 20k.

Your way... you wake up with 25k... or you wake up with ZERO... going... "Damn... if I only hedged my play for 5k... what was I thinking"

I can't lose.... you can. It's just that simple.

Who has a LOCK play, can't lose bet... and does not take it? One that is greedy and not happy with 20k... they want the whole 25k or nothing. 




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#4
Posted: 9/9/2011 6:48:53 PM
LOL @ "poof read before you post". What is poof reading? Does that involve magic?

As for the topic at hand, I think both of you make some valid points. On the one hand, if you hedge, you will walk away with a minimum of $5,000 or whatever amount you decide to hedge. You cannot walk away with nothing. If you lose the pick, this ha a very favorable outcome.

On the other hand, you are giving away some of your $25,000 prize if your pick wins. If you win, you lose the amount hedged. This takes some of the luster away from winning, in my opinion.

Obviously, walking away with zero dollars would suck! However if you feel sure enough of your pick, you wouldn't want to give away so much as a dime either! As has been discussed, the ultimate decision rests squarely on MC2010's shoulders. I wish him luck and support his decision regardless of the outcome.

This is a good topic, Trotter. I also see the Whitesmith's point of view. I would imagine it is difficult enough just to focus on this important pick at hand, let alone the topic of hedging. If whatever is done turns out to be correct, MC2010 will look like a genius. But if things turn out badly, then there will doubtless be a wave of lurkers coming out to say "I told you so". "You should have done this or you should have done that.". What he should do is what he feels is right for him. That is the way it has been and always will be.

Peace to all of those on both sides of this issue.

Good luck to you, MC2010. May fortune smile on your next pick.
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#5
Posted: 9/9/2011 6:51:06 PM
the first paragraph was my addition for this thread. the rest was directly taken from the mc2010 thread as my advice (or lack thereof) on hedging

if you actually read the bottom part you see that i am not against hedging. i never said hedging was wrong or anything of the sort, just that i chose not to and would choose not to again in the same circumstance. it is an individual decision as to whether to hedge or not.

as for your example, you got it right. my reasoning to not hedge was that for me personally it would bother me more to pay back the 5K out of the 25K than to get nothing at all.

as for not losing, we disagree. i didn't lose a penny by not hedging. i still won the grand and no money that was ever mine left my possession when i lost. did i end up with as much money as i could have? no but i certainly didn't lose any. i was and still am perfectly happy with the $1,000 i got. 

to me, it would've felt more like a loss if i had hedged and actually  won my pick.

clearly your mind works differently than mine. it is not out of greed that i didn't hedge. i actually look at hedging as being more greedy. not that there aren't perfectly good reasons to hedge, but caring only about money and the bottom line to me is the definition of being greedy
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#6
Posted: 9/9/2011 8:44:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thewhitesmith:

the first paragraph was my addition for this thread. the rest was directly taken from the mc2010 thread as my advice (or lack thereof) on hedging

if you actually read the bottom part you see that i am not against hedging. i never said hedging was wrong or anything of the sort, just that i chose not to and would choose not to again in the same circumstance. it is an individual decision as to whether to hedge or not.

as for your example, you got it right. my reasoning to not hedge was that for me personally it would bother me more to pay back the 5K out of the 25K than to get nothing at all.

as for not losing, we disagree. i didn't lose a penny by not hedging. i still won the grand and no money that was ever mine left my possession when i lost. did i end up with as much money as i could have? no but i certainly didn't lose any. i was and still am perfectly happy with the $1,000 i got. 

to me, it would've felt more like a loss if i had hedged and actually  won my pick.

clearly your mind works differently than mine. it is not out of greed that i didn't hedge. i actually look at hedging as being more greedy. not that there aren't perfectly good reasons to hedge, but caring only about money and the bottom line to me is the definition of being greedy


See...you said you did not lose anything out of your pocket... but you did... you did lose money out of your pocket. You lost, a can't lose bet... SURE thing, one way or the other. If you in fact would have hedged... as soon as you put the bet in with the book... that would have been an automatic win in your pocket... could not miss. So in fact... by not hedging... you lost money out of your pocket... money you were not smart enough to make sure got in your pocket to begin with.

You and he have the choice... you are an automatic winner of at least $12,500... can't miss. So how can you say nothing came out of your pocket? Just because it was not in your pocket... does not mean it was not yours to just reach out and grab.But you did not grab it... you wanted it all... or nothing.

If you ask 100 gamblers... real gamblers in your and his situation... 98% of them will tell you to hedge, because it's a can't lose play.

You went the way where you lost, and got nothing. To me... that's not a bright move at all. but like you said... to each his own.

As far as you saying... "If I bothered to read the bottom" Well... I read it... 15 times... and still can't make heads or tails of it.

I'll highlight it for you, and you tell me.
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#7
Posted: 9/9/2011 8:58:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thewhitesmith:

this was my take on hedging, figure i'd repost it here. i personally didn't hedge and probably wouldn't hedge again in the same situation (only reason i would is answering yes to my first question below). i can say with complete certainty that when i look back on my streak not once have i wished i hedged.

from another thread: 

as for hedging, i have a different take. i chose not to hedge and haven't given it a second thought, but that was a personal decision. i basically used two questions that helped me be satisfied with my decision:
 
is there some circumstance in your life where you absolutely need 10-13K (could guarantee yourself a little over 13K with baseball by taking a favorite on covers and betting on a dog. optimized numbers based on odds for the game)?

in the long run, which would cause you more agony, winning your pick and missing out on money or or losing your pick and not winning any money?

it is an individual choice. i know i would have been much more upset with winning my pick and having to pay off my hedge than i ended up being by not winning.


This part is the part that had me re-reading a few times.

Let me ask you this... forget hedging... forget it, how about this.


If I told you there was a game tonight... and in that game, no matter who you played... you were going to win, would you take that bet?

Or in that same game... you could make a play... and you could win it all... or lose it all, would you go that route?

Same thing as hedging... in my book... you are not to bright if you did not take the can't lose play.


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#8
Posted: 9/9/2011 10:27:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bamabilly:

LOL @ "poof read before you post". What is poof reading? Does that involve magic?

As for the topic at hand, I think both of you make some valid points. On the one hand, if you hedge, you will walk away with a minimum of $5,000 or whatever amount you decide to hedge. You cannot walk away with nothing. If you lose the pick, this ha a very favorable outcome.

On the other hand, you are giving away some of your $25,000 prize if your pick wins. If you win, you lose the amount hedged. This takes some of the luster away from winning, in my opinion.

Obviously, walking away with zero dollars would suck! However if you feel sure enough of your pick, you wouldn't want to give away so much as a dime either! As has been discussed, the ultimate decision rests squarely on MC2010's shoulders. I wish him luck and support his decision regardless of the outcome.

This is a good topic, Trotter. I also see the Whitesmith's point of view. I would imagine it is difficult enough just to focus on this important pick at hand, let alone the topic of hedging. If whatever is done turns out to be correct, MC2010 will look like a genius. But if things turn out badly, then there will doubtless be a wave of lurkers coming out to say "I told you so". "You should have done this or you should have done that.". What he should do is what he feels is right for him. That is the way it has been and always will be.

Peace to all of those on both sides of this issue.

Good luck to you, MC2010. May fortune smile on your next pick.


How much luster would be taken away if you hit for 25k and had to pay the book 5k.

F@ck luster.... hand me the 20k and id shake the books hand and smile when I gave him the 5k.


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#9
Posted: 9/10/2011 12:29:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thewhitesmith:

the first paragraph was my addition for this thread. the rest was directly taken from the mc2010 thread as my advice (or lack thereof) on hedging

if you actually read the bottom part you see that i am not against hedging. i never said hedging was wrong or anything of the sort, just that i chose not to and would choose not to again in the same circumstance. it is an individual decision as to whether to hedge or not.

as for your example, you got it right. my reasoning to not hedge was that for me personally it would bother me more to pay back the 5K out of the 25K than to get nothing at all.

as for not losing, we disagree. i didn't lose a penny by not hedging. i still won the grand and no money that was ever mine left my possession when i lost. did i end up with as much money as i could have? no but i certainly didn't lose any. i was and still am perfectly happy with the $1,000 i got. 

to me, it would've felt more like a loss if i had hedged and actually  won my pick.

clearly your mind works differently than mine. it is not out of greed that i didn't hedge. i actually look at hedging as being more greedy. not that there aren't perfectly good reasons to hedge, but caring only about money and the bottom line to me is the definition of being greedy
Dude- nothing personal, but you really don't make good sense. Your theory works, because it's "how you feel"
You're saying that you would feel more like you lost if you ended up with 20k than with nothing at all? Hedging exists for a reason.
How can you honestly say that you feel hedging is more greedy? 
I understand that this is a personal decision and it is your business, but please (and again- nothing personal) don't spew some bullshit that you are happier with nothing and would feel more like a loser if you had 5K or 20K respectively...I would feel nothing but sheer JOY on paying the book 5K if I had just won 25K!!!
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#10
Posted: 9/10/2011 12:31:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by trotter64:



How much luster would be taken away if you hit for 25k and had to pay the book 5k.

F@ck luster.... hand me the 20k and id shake the books hand and smile when I gave him the 5k.


I didn't even get to your post before I felt compelled to write hence the similarity.
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#11
Posted: 9/10/2011 2:58:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bmacattack:

Dude- nothing personal, but you really don't make good sense. Your theory works, because it's "how you feel"
You're saying that you would feel more like you lost if you ended up with 20k than with nothing at all? Hedging exists for a reason.
How can you honestly say that you feel hedging is more greedy? 
I understand that this is a personal decision and it is your business, but please (and again- nothing personal) don't spew some bullshit that you are happier with nothing and would feel more like a loser if you had 5K or 20K respectively...I would feel nothing but sheer JOY on paying the book 5K if I had just won 25K!!!

no worries, i don't take anything people say in an online forum as personal because in reality i don't think it really can be personal if you don't know me.

you would feel sheer joy for having won 20K, i would be upset that i had to pay back 5K to the bookie and look at it as i didn't trust myself. don't get me wrong, i would be very happy to walk away with money, but in the long run i would kick myself more if i had to pay back the hedge (and i can say that with certainty cause, like i've said, i haven't once regretted my decision to not hedge).

as for the greed comment, it came out a little different from how i wanted it to. i don't look at hedging necessarily as being greedy by itself. i look at only caring about the bottom line as greedy. if that is the sole reason for hedging, then yes i would call hedging being greedy. i don't have a problem with people disagreeing with that thought process and completely understand opposing views, its just how i see it. 

anyways, unless trotter was creating this forum as a way to troll (which i don't think he was), i'm just putting my point of view out there and not backing away from it. i also think i've been pretty straight forward in that it is my individual opinion and i'm not railing against the opposite point of view, only stating the reasoning behind it as it pertains to me. 

on to the case that created this conversation, if mc2010 were to hedge i would completely support it. it is his (or her) decision and it isn't my place to question how he lives his life.
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#12
Posted: 9/10/2011 3:17:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by trotter64:



See...you said you did not lose anything out of your pocket... but you did... you did lose money out of your pocket. You lost, a can't lose bet... SURE thing, one way or the other. If you in fact would have hedged... as soon as you put the bet in with the book... that would have been an automatic win in your pocket... could not miss. So in fact... by not hedging... you lost money out of your pocket... money you were not smart enough to make sure got in your pocket to begin with.

You and he have the choice... you are an automatic winner of at least $12,500... can't miss. So how can you say nothing came out of your pocket? Just because it was not in your pocket... does not mean it was not yours to just reach out and grab.But you did not grab it... you wanted it all... or nothing.

If you ask 100 gamblers... real gamblers in your and his situation... 98% of them will tell you to hedge, because it's a can't lose play.

You went the way where you lost, and got nothing. To me... that's not a bright move at all. but like you said... to each his own.

As far as you saying... "If I bothered to read the bottom" Well... I read it... 15 times... and still can't make heads or tails of it.

to clarify for you if i can

in my own, personal, opinion i would have been more upset if i had won my pick for #21 and had to pay money out of my winnings in a free contest for a bet i made against myself than i would be/ am for having lost the pick and only won $1,000. i hope you are open-minded enough to see that i have a different point of view on it. 

i also feel that i did as well as i did because i didn't look at it like a gambler. a gambler doesn't expect perfection, which is what this contest requires, but rather is trying to come out as far ahead as possible in the long run. in this i was shooting for perfection and never thought of settling for anything less than my best attempt at it

in terms of losing money believe me i understand how you look at it. how i have always looked at it though was that this is a free contest in which i can only win money by picking correctly. by getting to that point i had picked correctly 20 days in a row. i trusted myself to get my next pick right (as i honestly didn't look ahead past any given day). for me having not lost money i mean that my bank account going into the day read X dollars. at the end of the day it still read X dollars and i had the exact same amount of money to my name as before (with an additional grand on its way). if i had a streak of 2 instead of 20 and made the same pick it would have had zero impact on my life so that's how i tried to treat the pick for #21

anyways, hope this clarifies my views a little. i also don't plan on trying to explain further as i feel i've put in sufficient effort to help understand how i see things. i know it hasn't been a day since the thread was started, but i am hoping others chime in. i only ask that they realize that there is no one answer that is the correct answer for everyone.
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#13
Posted: 9/10/2011 7:38:07 AM
There is also the possibility you would lose your bet as well as your pick for win #21, depending on what you pick.
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#14
Posted: 9/10/2011 1:16:41 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Tuppy:

There is also the possibility you would lose your bet as well as your pick for win #21, depending on what you pick.

Tuppy, after picking 20 winners in a row MC2010 would have to be brain dead to fall into this senario. I don't think so.
You're damn right I would hedge my pick, I like free money. I wouldn't hedge my 17th pick, but we are talking about a healthy chunk of change here. I discussed this with a few of my gambling buds and the concensus was overwhelming in favour of hedging. Being gamblers, the most common amount seemed to be in the 5g's range. Either way, thats quite the streak. Best of luck.

 

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#15
Posted: 9/10/2011 10:49:58 PM
My best advice would to be look for a monday night baseball game monday nights in baseball are usually easy to pick I don't know why. I always pick ties in baseball on proline tonight there has been tons of em but wednesday's and saturdays are the best days to bet ties monday nights there are usually no ties and is a night to pick sides good luck and if you take my advice and win please send me a couple 100 I can supply you with my mailing address seriously good good luck would be nice to see someone get at least $25000
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#16
Posted: 9/11/2011 1:29:14 AM

maybe he doesnt have a dime to his name and cant hedge, maybe he has nowhere to bet unless he flys to vegas... maybe he is scared if he hedges and for some reason Covers doesnt payout and he loses....... there are a million resons not to hedge.

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#17
Posted: 9/11/2011 7:31:48 AM
I have to agree with The WhiteSmith, I can understand what he's saying about being mad at himself had he hedged the bet and won the 25K on here, I'd be mad at myself as well, like "god damn it I knew I should have just stuck with the streak", but at this current time in my life I would have to do it for at least the 5K just because of my current financial situation, getting at least 5K would really be helpfull, and 20K would be even better, but also being in that position I'd have to find someone to front me the 5K at least which means I'd have share part of my profits.  Just remember not everyone has access to extra money to hedge to start with.
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#18
Posted: 9/11/2011 8:33:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Trax:

I have to agree with The WhiteSmith, I can understand what he's saying about being mad at himself had he hedged the bet and won the 25K on here, I'd be mad at myself as well, like "god damn it I knew I should have just stuck with the streak", but at this current time in my life I would have to do it for at least the 5K just because of my current financial situation, getting at least 5K would really be helpfull, and 20K would be even better, but also being in that position I'd have to find someone to front me the 5K at least which means I'd have share part of my profits.  Just remember not everyone has access to extra money to hedge to start with.


The questions was not if he had the money or not... the question is... should you hedge the bet... for any amount... something.

Anyone who says they would be upset with having to give the book the hedge amount if that bet lost... is in my eyes... greedy... REALLY GREEDY!
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#19
Posted: 9/11/2011 8:37:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by THE_SHOW:

maybe he doesnt have a dime to his name and cant hedge, maybe he has nowhere to bet unless he flys to vegas... maybe he is scared if he hedges and for some reason Covers doesnt payout and he loses....... there are a million resons not to hedge.



Again... the question was not what he personally could do... I don't know him or whitesmith who both have/had a shot to hedge... the question is SHOULD you hedge.

And as far as covers paying... they are as good as gold when it comes to paying... and now it's through Paypal, you get it in days. I'm not 100% sure about the big number prizes (25k & 100k)... but anytime I won here... money in the bank. 
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#20
Posted: 9/11/2011 8:39:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tuppy:

There is also the possibility you would lose your bet as well as your pick for win #21, depending on what you pick.


Is that all you can offer to this thread?

Like h3llbent said... you would have to be brain dead to lose both bets.
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#21
Posted: 9/11/2011 8:42:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by h3llbent:

Tuppy, after picking 20 winners in a row MC2010 would have to be brain dead to fall into this senario. I don't think so.
You're damn right I would hedge my pick, I like free money. I wouldn't hedge my 17th pick, but we are talking about a healthy chunk of change here. I discussed this with a few of my gambling buds and the concensus was overwhelming in favour of hedging. Being gamblers, the most common amount seemed to be in the 5g's range. Either way, thats quite the streak. Best of luck.

 



   Just like I said... how can you not hedge, only greedy people would not.  

"Because I would hate paying my bookie the hedge" 

20% is the normal hedge. 
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