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Author: [College Football] Topic: Oklahoma under 9.5 wins
mattbrot send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#76
Posted: 8/3/2012 10:12:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bigvern1013:

Well gridironguy, I stick by what I said....cakewalk schedule.  OU has huge advantages in nearly every matchup. Game by game  here is how I see it:

@UTEP            absolute boatrace, OU spanks them mightily

Florida A@M      there should be rules in place to prevent this

bye

Kansas St.       At home, off of a bye?  could there be a worse spot for K-State.....OU whips them badly every year.  Look it up. 

bye

@Texas Tech     Last year TT beat OU.....in a game that was delayed by lightning for 5 hours....it finished in front of an empty house at 2 AM. Pretty special circumstance wouldnt you say?

Texas (red river rivalry)  Without solid QB play Texas is screwed.  In my opinion they have big problems under center...David Ash struggled throwing the ball, and he looks to be the starter.  UT won't be able to run, OU has a big advantage in this one as well!

Kansas        OU is 60-2 at home over the passed 10 yrs (philsteele)

Notre Dame      If this one was in south bend then I would agree that it is loseable........but OU is 60 and friggin 2 in norman over the last 10 years!!!! This game will likely be the game of the week, and the Sooners have a huge home field advantage!

@Iowa State     I went to ISU for a year back in the day....they know that they are severely overmatched in everyway in this one.  The big OSU win last year was in the wake of tradgedy...and it still took a miracle for them to pull off the upset.  OU really big in this one.

Baylor   Baylor has a shot at being pretty damn good this year, I expect the Florence kid at qb to put up big numbers in replacement of RG3.....but again, OU will be able to run at will and in NORMAN, see above.

@WVU      this game fits the mold of a Stoops meltdown.....especially if WVU is ranked and hungry. The sooners can lose this one.

OSU       Bedlam......OSU is starting a true freshman QB this season...they play this one coming off of a tough 4 game stretch vs TCU, @Kstate, WVU, TT....and they have to go to Norman.

@TCU     TCU has a great program, and they have a better shot than most to beat the sooners.....they do get OU at home, and catch them off of Bedlam.........In my opinion, it is all about depth this late in the season, and with the increase in compete level in TCU's schedule week to week with the step up to the big 12, they should be absolutely beat up by this one.  Again, with a chance to play in the title game likely on the line, OU will have a big advantage.

That is not an SEC schedule, a ND schedule or even a Big 10 schedule.

UTEP, Florida A@M, Kansas, Iowa st are absolute pushovers.........K-state, TT, Baylor, TCU  are outmatched badly.  ND and OSU have to go to Norman, which is a huge advantage to the Sooners.  That leaves WVU and Texas to do the work....and no Big 12 title game either.

It will take Landry Jones breaking his leg to screw this one up....the schedule plays to OU's strengths in every way......and no I am not a sooners fan in the least.

There just aren't enough loseable games there to justify going under 9.5 wins...that is why I called the schedule a "cakewalk".


SEC I agree. But get out of here with that ND and Big 10 stuff.
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#77
Posted: 8/3/2012 10:15:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tiasman:

Why do u guys think that this line is not at 10.5 or 11 like the real contenders?  

I appreciate all the perspectives in this thread  



My guess is because of how OU has been prone to the bonehead loss or two recently. 

I also think that it is related to their schedule. They do have a fairly tough schedule with a few games that are almost toss ups (Texas, WVU, maybe even TCU).

Also I assume that it is because there are some real injury / suspension questions out there right now.
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#78
Posted: 8/3/2012 10:19:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bigvern1013:

Well gridironguy, I stick by what I said....cakewalk schedule.  OU has huge advantages in nearly every matchup. Game by game  here is how I see it:

@UTEP            absolute boatrace, OU spanks them mightily

Florida A@M      there should be rules in place to prevent this

bye

Kansas St.       At home, off of a bye?  could there be a worse spot for K-State.....OU whips them badly every year.  Look it up. 

bye

@Texas Tech     Last year TT beat OU.....in a game that was delayed by lightning for 5 hours....it finished in front of an empty house at 2 AM. Pretty special circumstance wouldnt you say?

Texas (red river rivalry)  Without solid QB play Texas is screwed.  In my opinion they have big problems under center...David Ash struggled throwing the ball, and he looks to be the starter.  UT won't be able to run, OU has a big advantage in this one as well!

Kansas        OU is 60-2 at home over the passed 10 yrs (philsteele)

Notre Dame      If this one was in south bend then I would agree that it is loseable........but OU is 60 and friggin 2 in norman over the last 10 years!!!! This game will likely be the game of the week, and the Sooners have a huge home field advantage!

@Iowa State     I went to ISU for a year back in the day....they know that they are severely overmatched in everyway in this one.  The big OSU win last year was in the wake of tradgedy...and it still took a miracle for them to pull off the upset.  OU really big in this one.

Baylor   Baylor has a shot at being pretty damn good this year, I expect the Florence kid at qb to put up big numbers in replacement of RG3.....but again, OU will be able to run at will and in NORMAN, see above.

@WVU      this game fits the mold of a Stoops meltdown.....especially if WVU is ranked and hungry. The sooners can lose this one.

OSU       Bedlam......OSU is starting a true freshman QB this season...they play this one coming off of a tough 4 game stretch vs TCU, @Kstate, WVU, TT....and they have to go to Norman.

@TCU     TCU has a great program, and they have a better shot than most to beat the sooners.....they do get OU at home, and catch them off of Bedlam.........In my opinion, it is all about depth this late in the season, and with the increase in compete level in TCU's schedule week to week with the step up to the big 12, they should be absolutely beat up by this one.  Again, with a chance to play in the title game likely on the line, OU will have a big advantage.

That is not an SEC schedule, a ND schedule or even a Big 10 schedule.

UTEP, Florida A@M, Kansas, Iowa st are absolute pushovers.........K-state, TT, Baylor, TCU  are outmatched badly.  ND and OSU have to go to Norman, which is a huge advantage to the Sooners.  That leaves WVU and Texas to do the work....and no Big 12 title game either.

It will take Landry Jones breaking his leg to screw this one up....the schedule plays to OU's strengths in every way......and no I am not a sooners fan in the least.

There just aren't enough loseable games there to justify going under 9.5 wins...that is why I called the schedule a "cakewalk".


I hate it too but almost every team does this. Just as a random example that I pulled up right now.

Bama this year has:

- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
- Florida Atlantic Owls
- Western Carolina Catamounts 
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#79
Posted: 8/3/2012 1:39:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bigvern1013:

tiasman....I have written a bunch on your thread here looking at the over.....not trying to be a prick or anything, just supplying a different point of view and my opinions on the 9.5 line.

Good luck this season.

   



No problem, I don't have big ego on this stuf, I have fun gambling.  gl buddy  
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#80
Posted: 8/3/2012 6:19:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gridironguy:



i agree that we should not put too much stock into preseason polls, however, if you look at the AP and USA Today coaches polls over the last 12-15 years, you will see that roughly 60% (15 out of 25) on average, end up in the final poll.

it's pretty easy to see which teams have returning coaching staffs, returning qb's, and many returning starters, and then find out who should 'probably' be pretty decent.

i'm sorry to say it again but you are completely wrong calling that schedule a "cakewalk".

the teams i listed that will be tough games, all of a lot of talent coming back which is why they are all in the preseason top 25.

preseason top 25 polls, as i mentioned earlier, are more legit than NOT legit.  that's all i'm saying. 

i have almost zero doubt in my mind that OU's strength of sched at the end of the year will be in the Top 10 of the country, because all of those teams i mentioned will likely be bowl teams, and i expect big things out of:

Texas
WVA
TCU




Sounds good...Agree to  disagree about the schedule strength.  At the end of the day I put more emphasis on home vs away games and not necessarily the rankings of an individual team for a given matchup when handicapping strength of schedule.

I do agree that the teams you have there should be pretty good, but the move up to the Big 12 has me concerned about how WVU and TCU will do overall.

Texas has been recognized by many to be on the way up this season, but I am stuck remembering how bad the Qb's and the offense  played last year......IMO McCoy played better than Ash, but it looks like Ash is going to be the man there......the D is good, but you need points to win.

In any case, good luck this season. 
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#81
Posted: 8/9/2012 1:31:37 PM
Looks like Jones will be playing behind a decimated O line.  Losing that center hurts, and the guard won't help.  
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#82
Posted: 8/9/2012 1:43:31 PM
The coaches aren't worried about the o-line. Well that's what they are saying publicly. Huge pick up getting Justin Brown from Penn State. Coaches and Sports Talk Radio here in Oklahoma are saying this is the best set of recievers Stoops has had. Wow 2 weeks ago everyone thought they would be the achilles heel. O-Line they still have 8 guys who can supposedly play - we shall see. Secondary is looking awesome but very thin.
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#83
Posted: 8/9/2012 2:22:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigRedGambler:

The coaches aren't worried about the o-line. Well that's what they are saying publicly. Huge pick up getting Justin Brown from Penn State. Coaches and Sports Talk Radio here in Oklahoma are saying this is the best set of recievers Stoops has had. Wow 2 weeks ago everyone thought they would be the achilles heel. O-Line they still have 8 guys who can supposedly play - we shall see. Secondary is looking awesome but very thin.

Local update, thanks 
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Posted: 9/2/2012 1:21:43 AM
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#85
Posted: 9/2/2012 1:23:11 AM
This team blows.  The QB and coaches are sucky and the defense has no fire.  UTEP
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#86
Posted: 9/2/2012 1:25:26 AM
Congrats on your winnings
Posted using a mobile device.
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#87
Posted: 9/22/2012 10:50:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tiasman:

+180,  2 units to win 3.6.  Looking to score on this value 2nd year in a row.  

I will be sad when Landry leaves, love to fade this dude.

The only thing that may ruin this is if baby Stoops can bring the nasty back to that D.  We will see if he can keep his hands off the co eds.

Good luck everyone!


  One down?
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#88
Posted: 9/26/2012 5:51:35 PM

Yeah, you are on the right side of this one.  That performance last saturday vs K-State was dreadfull. 

OU stinks.  Good call Tiasman. 

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#89
Posted: 9/26/2012 6:04:34 PM

Sooners drop one they shouldnt (as usual) nice call so far....Question is?? will they rebound??

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#90
Posted: 9/26/2012 8:27:43 PM
Tech, Texas, Iowa St, West Virginia, Baylor....none of these gimmies. When Stoops has had to do some coaching the results have not been positive. And that's being kind.

Looks like he'll have to do some coaching for a change. Let's see what he can do with some really good talent, not sterling talent. but very good talent. But isn't that what we've been saying now for 6-7 years. Let's see what he can do.

I've seen enough. Mack Brown will get some revenge this year. The Sooner coach is like a possum. When threatened.....the possum will just keel over and play dead.

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#91
Posted: 9/26/2012 8:30:08 PM
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#92
Posted: 9/26/2012 8:34:20 PM

This bet is a long way from being over. It will be a sweat.

Ido  think they lose to Texas but we'll see.

Don't count them out.

Turnovers will kill a team and thats what happened with KState.

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#93
Posted: 9/26/2012 8:57:25 PM

After a life/death struggle with mighty UTEP....and getting beat up at home by KSt....

I personally look for them to regroup....and run the table!

WHY?......because the Sooners are awesome!

 . . . . . . . . . . . 

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Posted: 10/27/2012 11:23:03 PM
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Posted: 10/27/2012 11:24:38 PM
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#96
Posted: 10/29/2012 12:54:24 AM

Here is where the bet gets interesting that is for sure....OU stinks, anyone with any balls can take them now...they just need to dump one more.

This is the final season for Mack Brown and Bob Stoops...they will both retire at the end of the season.

ND kicked the Sooner's behind. Pure and simple.

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