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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Longtime Bets; Season Wins Vs. Regular Day-to-Day Picks
Asomugha send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
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#1
Posted: 8/20/2012 8:00:12 PM
Am i the only on here on this board that likes over / under xx season wins for team xx more than picking day-to-day?

So many times last season i got fucked over on the worst bullshit, it happened so many times i have lost count and track of it. With season wins it will even out on a whole season and one unlucky night will most likely not be that costly.

Many people have told me that they dont like long time bets because they want action every night.

Why not just throw like 15 units on 2 or 3 long time bets instead of throwing 1-2 unit every night and get unlucky anyways?

My plan is that i will find 2 or 3 over / under wins and then pound them hard with like 15 units instead of the regular 1 unit i play, then i still get lots of action for the whole season and i avoid being fucked over every night.

However, when i found something really interesting i will still be playing some 1 unit plays but then just accept the losses when they come, but i will much rather go with more units on the over / under season wins because then i will avoid unlucky trips.

What is you guys thoughts on this?

Looking forward to the next season already.




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#2
Posted: 8/21/2012 2:58:58 AM
Your not the only one.  Much less luck factor involved when your bet covers an 82 game season

BOL


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#3
Posted: 8/21/2012 5:34:10 PM
yeah but also more riskier. Look at minny last year. Ricky got hurt and everything went downhill for them. Same for the Bulls. some good values, but still risky
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#4
Posted: 8/21/2012 5:38:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mad_Skillz123:

yeah but also more riskier. Look at minny last year. Ricky got hurt and everything went downhill for them. Same for the Bulls. some good values, but still risky


Funny that you talk about Minnesota, because Minnesota got 26 wins this season, and their line was 20.5 before the season.

So lets say some1 liked the over season wins, he would have taken over 20,5, even with injuries they managed to cover this spread.


But, of course, you gotta take injuries into consideration thats part of the job when analyzing before hand.

Like if u like Eagles for over 9.5 Wins, then u gotta consider the chances of vick being injured, how will they recover, who will they use for back up, etc. Thats just interesting to think like that in my book.
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#5
Posted: 8/21/2012 5:39:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shaps17:

Your not the only one.  Much less luck factor involved when your bet covers an 82 game season

BOL




Exactly - good to see im not alone
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#6
Posted: 8/22/2012 2:45:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Asomugha:



Funny that you talk about Minnesota, because Minnesota got 26 wins this season, and their line was 20.5 before the season.

So lets say some1 liked the over season wins, he would have taken over 20,5, even with injuries they managed to cover this spread.


But, of course, you gotta take injuries into consideration thats part of the job when analyzing before hand.

Like if u like Eagles for over 9.5 Wins, then u gotta consider the chances of vick being injured, how will they recover, who will they use for back up, etc. Thats just interesting to think like that in my book.



i talk about minny because it showed how 1 player can impact the whole team win-wise. If Ricky got hurt earlier, i dont think Minny could manage 20 wins. Just look how they got from great to awful in a blink of an eye.

Its still a better bet to take the season wins, but i hate to wait a whole year to see if i won or not. We want action, thats why we bet ( and for the $$$ ofc )


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#7
Posted: 8/22/2012 4:24:33 AM
Mad Skillz: Dont u think u get lots of action if u have 20 units out on a bet? Thats action every night for me, where every singe win is important if u have the over for a team. Thats lots of action as i see it. 
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#8
Posted: 8/22/2012 4:40:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Asomugha:

Mad Skillz: Dont u think u get lots of action if u have 20 units out on a bet? Thats action every night for me, where every singe win is important if u have the over for a team. Thats lots of action as i see it. 



yeah but you cant celebrate after a win. And also, you got your money tied up for a year. You need different kind of bankroll for future wagers, esp. if they are as big as you are saying they will be.

and some lottery teams can tank the last 5-10 games and darn you when you are least expecting. Or some playoffs teams that secured spots ( 3 or 4 ) and rest starters in last few games and darn you...and you were looking great just a week ago...


im not saying i dont make future bets. I did last year ( Miami to win it all ) and i regret it because i could get much much better value in the playoffs ( down 2-1 vs Indy ) and down 3-2 vs C's....


good luck nevertheless
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#9
Posted: 8/22/2012 5:52:21 PM
Mad Skillz: That is all things that u have to look into... Lets say i like Houston Rockets over 38.5 wins, then i will look at the chances of them tanking if they know they cant reach the play offs, how likely is that to happen. All these things are important when capping longtime;

- What will happen if xx player gets injured
- How will team xx do in this situation if they cant make the play offs
- How is their schedule


It's just another way of capping and it wont get u fucked over on just one bad night. Look at it the other way around, your pick could be totally dead, but if your schedule faces 5-10 teams that will tank then u could be lucky and get the win anyways.
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#10
Posted: 8/23/2012 2:51:50 AM
other thoughts?
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#11
Posted: 8/23/2012 4:14:35 AM
Lakers - Miami final @ odds?
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#12
Posted: 8/23/2012 6:27:08 AM
Dont think theres a line out on that one yet, not sure i will play NBA championship winner till like 40 games in the season or something like that, the line wont have changed alot, even if lakers and miami go 35-5 after 40 games the line / odds will probably still be the same. 

i like xxx points scored and season wins before the season starts.

Miami is a lean tho, but wont bet on them till 40 games or 50 games have been played (after the all star break maybe) think they will win b2b
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#13
Posted: 8/23/2012 8:47:03 AM
odds for opening night are out
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#14
Posted: 8/23/2012 6:19:33 PM
really? Where? Bet365 does not have those.
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#15
Posted: 8/26/2012 11:17:03 PM
I only bet futures.  

I don't have time to handicap the games and watch them (this would be about 8 hours a day - 3 hours to cap and about 5+ hours of games).  I could put bets in without capping, but what is the point of that?

With season wins you are betting every game ML, so you don't get beat on a meaningless basket, or lose because someone fouls down 8 with 2 seconds left.

AS far as tying money up for a long time, I don't gamble with money that I'd ever need to pay bills, and I am a million times more likely to turn a profit on futures than making 800 wagers in a season.

Two thing you are right about - it is a ton of action watching your futures unfold over a season, and you are usually better off waiting a month or two to bet some of these futures (NBA title, Conf winner, Div winner).  Books are usually slow to adjust the odds on these wagers.


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#16
Posted: 8/27/2012 2:25:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Asomugha:

really? Where? Bet365 does not have those.


bwin
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#17
Posted: 8/30/2012 3:20:31 AM
thorpe -

Mad -
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#18
Posted: 9/29/2012 10:17:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Asomugha:

thorpe -

Mad -

Never too early for the NBA.  A lot of moves this offseason to think about.

Season wins


Heat 65
Bulls 57
Knicks 53
New Jersey 51
Celtics 49
Pacers 48
Sixers 46
Detroit 40
Bucks 40
Atlanta 31
Cavs 31
Toronto 28
Washington 24
Magic 23
Charlotte 21


Lakers 62
OK C 59
Spurs 54
Clips 52
Memphis 51
Denver 47
Minny 43
Utah 42
Dallas 42
Houston 42
Portland 30
GS 30
Sac 30
Pho 28
NO 26
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#19
Posted: 10/7/2012 4:44:56 PM
It's easier IMO picking season totals than game to game - but most people don't have the patience to put up with it.  However if you have the discipline to just stick with futures then I would say you have some good self-control that others could surely use.  

Most people here are in a get rich quick type of mentality and do not take the time to realize that playing over the long term is a lot less risky than playing one game in the short term.  


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#20
Posted: 10/7/2012 4:46:47 PM
I definitely like Charlotte to take a step up and win about 28 games this year.  
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#21
Posted: 10/7/2012 6:07:55 PM
magic 23? imo...more
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#22
Posted: 10/7/2012 6:08:18 PM
minny over 43
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#23
Posted: 10/7/2012 6:08:40 PM
NJ under
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#24
Posted: 10/7/2012 6:15:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mad_Skillz123:

magic 23? imo...more


Careful Magic will be garbage this year
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#25
Posted: 10/12/2012 1:15:35 PM
Atlanta Under 43
Bulls Over  48
Knicks Over 46
Detroit Over 32.5
Atlanta Under 43
Washington Under 31
Houston Over 30.5
Portland Under 35
Golden St Under 35.5
Phoenix Under 33.5
Brooklyn over 44
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