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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL PICKS WEEK 1
theory send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 8/7/2011 8:43:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

you watch...  they will have a decent season and win at least 7.

GL to you.

 


I completely agree.  I think AP takes the pressure off mcnabb and he outperforms.  time will tell.
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#27
Posted: 8/7/2011 8:44:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jbkizzle:

Week 1 always causes bettors to lose tons.  A ridiculously new roster, versus an up-and-coming team that was all there last year. Plus, a road game. Tough call here.

It's a bit early, but I'd probably pass on this game. It's weird, but I think the easiest game on the board is CLE moneyline


History show that the away team covers or wins straight up more times that not in week 1.  Since I have the moneyline on the birds, its a gimme.  chalk one up for the theory.  1-0 already
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#28
Posted: 8/7/2011 8:53:43 PM
by the way.....The Rams are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 11 Week 1 games. 
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#29
Posted: 8/7/2011 8:59:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theory:


History show that the away team covers or wins straight up more times that not in week 1.  Since I have the moneyline on the birds, its a gimme.  chalk one up for the theory.  1-0 already


You're showing alot of confidence in those birds. I myself think the Rams cover & lose by 3.
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#30
Posted: 8/7/2011 8:59:34 PM
sorry....1-9-1
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#31
Posted: 8/7/2011 9:00:11 PM
sorry, i meant 1-9-1
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#32
Posted: 8/7/2011 9:03:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:



You're showing alot of confidence in those birds. I myself think the Rams cover & lose by 3.

I do,Prime.  Obviously or I would not be placing a nice sized bet.  I am playing the moneyline, so I am not concerned with how much they win by.   So, on my bet, the Eagles cover by simply winning. If I had to call an ATS pick.....I still choose philly.  They are way too much for st louis.   only concern i am even considering is week 2's matchup where vick returns to atlanta and will want to show out. 
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#33
Posted: 8/7/2011 10:59:34 PM
The 1-9-1 in the previous 11 seasons means absolutely nothing. I can't believe people even consider that. 
 And to the one that bet Eagles to do this and that, I don't agree with that. I understand the excitement with the team but the back up is VY and he is awful. He will most likely have to play at least 5 games this year because Vick gets hurt every year due to his style of play. I don't know who is going to win the NFC but after the preseason I will narrow the list down. I just don't see an unconventional offense (philly) making it to the big game. 
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#34
Posted: 8/8/2011 1:06:31 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by theory:

by the way.....The Rams are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 11 Week 1 games. 

dont mean a thing.....as personnel has changed....

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#35
Posted: 8/8/2011 2:15:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bobafett:

dont mean a thing.....as personnel has changed....


WILL mean a thing after I win my wager  
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#36
Posted: 8/8/2011 5:22:24 PM
WHEN does the COVERS NFL contest start??
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#37
Posted: 8/8/2011 5:30:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theory:


WILL mean a thing after I win my wager  

 

I said it before, and I'll say it again. Most bettors lose a ton of cash in Week 1. It's because you have no information on who is actually good yet. Yes, on paper the Eagles look amazing; but, with a short training camp and a new roster, it shall be interesting. I think the Eagles should cover, but with all of the shifting of their roster (and them being on the road), I think it's a pass.

Save your cash for Week 2.

Oh, and your random 1-8-1 stat is hilarious.

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#38
Posted: 8/9/2011 2:05:34 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jbkizzle:

 

I said it before, and I'll say it again. Most bettors lose a ton of cash in Week 1. It's because you have no information on who is actually good yet. Yes, on paper the Eagles look amazing; but, with a short training camp and a new roster, it shall be interesting. I think the Eagles should cover, but with all of the shifting of their roster (and them being on the road), I think it's a pass.

Save your cash for Week 2.

Oh, and your random 1-8-1 stat is hilarious.


unlike most "bettors that lose a ton of cash in week 1", i do not. unlike some, I actually do my best work the first 3 weeks, typically.  of course, anything can happen and im sure if i fall flat week 1, your mouth will be the first i hear.  but as long as I end up with more cash than i started with, im a-ok.  if you like, i can post more meaningless stats for you since you enjoyed that one so much.  its good that you are so confident with those mighty rams.  they are clearly better than most teams in the NFL.  they may even go undefeated, i hear.  pretty solid.  good luck with that wager.  sadly enough, im sure you will be on the birds also.  although i hope you are betting on the rams, so my value gets even better.  easiest 500 i will have made.  it feels good to be 1-0  

So Says:   The Theory 
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#39
Posted: 8/9/2011 2:17:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Goldfisch:

The 1-9-1 in the previous 11 seasons means absolutely nothing. I can't believe people even consider that. 
 And to the one that bet Eagles to do this and that, I don't agree with that. I understand the excitement with the team but the back up is VY and he is awful. He will most likely have to play at least 5 games this year because Vick gets hurt every year due to his style of play. I don't know who is going to win the NFC but after the preseason I will narrow the list down. I just don't see an unconventional offense (philly) making it to the big game. 

I find your post most interesting.  i dont think i ever said philly was going to the super bowl.  i never said vince young was good.  i never said my wager is based on the previous records from year's past.  i simply posted an interesting stat.  obviously 11 years ago when faulk and warner were there, they werent clearly as good as this sam bradford led team....lol.  sheesh.  everyone has something to pick on with these posts.  i challenge anyone here to take the rams straight up game 1.  you all (if you had to choose one) would take the eagles straight up in that game, even on the road.  so why all the blasting because the eagles get me off to a great start?  when you all would be riding the same coattail if you were betting the ML?  
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#40
Posted: 8/9/2011 2:23:11 AM

Hello Everyone,

I'm a new member on covers, and like most of you I cant wait for some football. I like most of your msgs, and will take them into consideration. If you want to know a real awesome trend thats been pretty much gauranteed the past few years since I'v been keeping track is this....in the first I'd say 4-5 weeks, take all the teams that are +2 to +4 (this does not apply to thurs/sunday night/or mon night games). Of course not all those teams are gonna win, but I can almost gaurantee you that if you be consistent and take the teams in this category for the first few weeks you will be up....we'll come back to this after week 1.

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#41
Posted: 8/9/2011 2:27:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by :

Hello Everyone,

I'm a new member on covers, and like most of you I cant wait for some football. I like most of your msgs, and will take them into consideration. If you want to know a real awesome trend thats been pretty much gauranteed the past few years since I'v been keeping track is this....in the first I'd say 4-5 weeks, take all the teams that are +2 to +4 (this does not apply to thurs/sunday night/or mon night games). Of course not all those teams are gonna win, but I can almost gaurantee you that if you be consistent and take the teams in this category for the first few weeks you will be up....we'll come back to this after week 1.



dont worry man, JB will debunk your post because trends do not matter....ever?  according to him, anyway.  throw all trends out the door because they are simply meaningless.  im glad i didnt consider the trend the other day when i took the sox over the yanks.  trend being that the sox have OWNED C.C. this year.  i simply took a lucky guess when i found out CC was on the mound.  wow, i got so lucky. whew.  im looking for some really great JB insight this year.  he is going to make me a lot of money, i can feel it.
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#42
Posted: 8/9/2011 2:38:46 AM

....another great trend is to always take the underdogs on sunday night football. Most of the time, they cover or just win straight out. But you cannot pick the one that you like every week, you have to be consistent like my +2-4 point theory....I'm only 30 but I'v learned throughout the years that its not about who YOU think will cover or who YOU think is a lock,Its about what WILL happen and most of the time most people are wrong. Once you take your subjective thinking out of the equation and realize this, that is when you've moved on and taken the next step.  I hope you guys understand what I'm sayin and will find this helpful.

good luck to all

 

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#43
Posted: 8/9/2011 2:43:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theory:



dont worry man, JB will debunk your post because trends do not matter....ever?  according to him, anyway.  throw all trends out the door because they are simply meaningless.  im glad i didnt consider the trend the other day when i took the sox over the yanks.  trend being that the sox have OWNED C.C. this year.  i simply took a lucky guess when i found out CC was on the mound.  wow, i got so lucky. whew.  im looking for some really great JB insight this year.  he is going to make me a lot of money, i can feel it.

Im not talking about a team trend or what a team did the last few years on a specific week ect. I understand what you're sayin, but this is not like that. This is just how it seems to work....and baseball is totally different than nfl, i don't even mess with that.

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